Investments Trade Log

[jacob]

No! Professional investors tend to be terrible writers. I do enjoy my returns though.

[Lemur]

Waiting for earnings on June 26 to see if revenue keeps falling:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FIZZ?p= ... c=fin-srch

Stock is low evident by its 52 week range. My DCF analysis shows an undervalued stock within a 50% margin of safety...

https://i.imgur.com/5JLxrK3.png

Just unsure about long-term business prospects. Either way waiting until June 26 is a good idea right based on :

(1) Stock falls after revenue reports, I update my DCF analysis which will likely show an undervalued stock, keep holding until trend reverses
(2) Revenue starts picking back up and at that point I jump back in (would probably lose a little bit of the short-term pop but long-term will be better off?

[Dream of Freedom]

Bought APPS @4.97 With stop @4.50.

[Dream of Freedom]

Passive investments such as index funds and exchange-traded funds control about 60% of the equity assets, while quantitative funds, those which rely on trend-following models instead of fundamental research from humans, now account for 20% of the market share, according to estimates from J.P. Morgan.

"I'm not at all a fan of passive investing. In fact, I think passive investing ... has reached mania status as we went into the peak of the global stock market," Gundlach said in December.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/28/80p ... pilot.html

80% passive. Has automated investing become a systematic risk?

[thedollar]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/28/80p ... pilot.html

80% passive. Has automated investing become a systematic risk?

Passive investments are passive. Wouldn't that mean a higher level of stability ? Not increased sensitivity to headlines that are argued in the article. I seriously don't see the stock market being more volatile than historically. It's normal to have 20% fluctuations within a year.

[Dream of Freedom]

Sold APPS @5.19 for a 3.37% gain in 4 days after commitions.

[Dream of Freedom]

Bought TTD @233.50. Stop loss @223.98.

[jacob]

@thedollar - See my comments in viewtopic.php?p=115298#p115298 ... Any further comments on this issue should be made in the other thread.

[_bb_]

Bought BTI @ 36.18

[Mister Imperceptible]

PG&E (PCG) will file for bankruptcy following potential liabilities from wildfires in 2018 and 2017. This wipes out 17B+ of market value + the equity.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pg-e-knew- ... 1562768885

[Dream of Freedom]

Opened a small position in AHT @2.58

The remodel of some of their hotels cost enough that they had to cut the dividend. Share price plumetted., but the remodels will end at some point.

[Dream of Freedom]

Sold TTD @255.46 for a 9.4% gain. 25 days in the market. Took longer than I expected, damned analysis' downgrades.

[Dream of Freedom]

Bought NOW @289.13. Stoploss @279. Trade.

[Dream of Freedom]

Got stopped out on NOW @270. for a 3.5% loss within a half hour. If that's going to happen, at least it happened early.

[Dream of Freedom]

Bought BRKS @40.31. Stop @37.8. Trade.

[jacob]

Yesterday, the FOMC dropped the rate for the first time since 2008. Also, another instance of the "first time since 2008" is corporate buyback+dividends>cash flow.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-50 ... 2019-07-29

(If you want to see what happens once buybacks and dividends become debt funded, check out IBM's price over the past 5ish years.)

Meanwhile, after Fed language about how the uncertainty of tariffs caused them to lower rates in an otherwise decent economy, the tweeter-in-chief made a comment about more tariffs. Consequentially, the stock market (especially economically sensitive sectors like banking and financials) is down while the futures (and bonds) are up expecting increased chances of another cut later this year. This should auto-resolve later.

I'm currently not sure what to do about this mess. Too many warning lights.

[AnalyticalEngine]

Is investing in cash a wise decision in a market like this? The current situation is so weird by historical standards that it's hard to know what to do.

[Seppia]

1- corporate buyback+dividends>cash flow.

2- I'm currently not sure what to do about this mess. Too many warning lights.

1- that sounds suboptimal. Wars against math are rarely won.

2- you are much smarter than me, but personally I keep turning, slowly*, more defensive every day.
I am now up to 16% cash, and I have, again slowly*, been tilting my stocks in the same direction: sold a couple big winners, moved the money into unloved cash machines (mostly BATS).
No big tilts, slow adjustments.
I am now down to 1% USA, almost everything in Europe and Emerging (but zero in Japan, sorry unemployable)
Obviously I have zero debt.

*Slowly being the key word.

[cmonkey]

It's a good time to hold some cash yes.

After selling some big winners I'm currently just under 25% cash and am planning to hold it there for any tweet/Fed-induced selloffs of 5+%.

Of course you can't hold off buying forever so I have been initiating a few micro (3 figure) positions here and there in some low(ish) debt, high yield stuffs.

[black_son_of_gray]

My two cents on the current state of the US stock market, which I present simply because it is quite different from the buy-and-hold crowd:

The view from [value/long game/historically useful statistics/"weighing machine"] is that the US stock market is generally outrageously priced, meaning long-term (the usefulness of value-related mean reversion statistics drops off after about 10 years) future returns will be essentially nothing. Lots of risk, no return, no thanks. This view has been blasting warnings for a while now (>1 year at least) and is especially loud right now. I've shifted my emphasis towards time frames of 5-10 years (see my journal if you want long-winded reasoning), because anything longer is highly unpredictable. I can get similar cash-flow (dividends, coupons, interest) from other investments anyway. So I don't find this view compelling right now.

The view from [play-the-player/short game/game theory/beauty contest/technicals/momentum/market psychology/"voting machine"] is that there is always the possibility for a decent return, assuming you can read the tea leaves correctly. This view is more compelling... if and only if you think that the beauty contest isn't rigged by the organizers. That is, that the normal operation of the markets still applies. But I'm not so sure, or at least, I don't know how to operate under the new regime. New regime: decisions by the Fed or ECB on interest rates or QE or Trump's unpredictable and unilateral whims over trade policy or his obvious need to have a juiced up economy going into the next election (...or [X,Y,Z]) can move the market in huge ways that have more to do with politics than business. These are market-wide swings that can destroy your trade arising from the individual decisions of a very few people who aren't even necessarily playing the same game (are there "two sides to the trade" when new tariffs could be decided because someone was feeling irritable because they didn't like the club sandwich they got at lunch or is frustrated because they are under investigation or is being leaned on by their superiors to come to a specific conclusion? There can't be- you didn't even know about that trade), and I ... I just have no ability to play that game. I'm not sure anyone can, successfully. It's like you go up to a roulette table and put some money on black and then they change out the wheel to one that only has purple and green before spinning it. Ok, it isn't that bad. But it's bad enough that I don't want to play that game either.

So my own personal conclusion (influenced strongly by my near-term plans for buying real estate and my permissive tax situation) is that I'm out of the US market. I'd rather potentially lose a couple percent (it that) over 5-10 years to inflation, than to gamble on either long or short orientations on US stocks. I'm not out forever: the market will change and develop with time, and I feel confident there will be better opportunities for both long and short positions at some point, and I'll refit my curve then. Isn't this why we save so much anyway? To have the ability to not play rigged games for crappy prizes?