Investments Trade Log

[jacob]

Yield curve getting pressured again. Inversion breaking below March 2019. I see 3 month CD rates at 2.4% now.

[Seppia]

BAT
...
I’m not proud of it and I feel dirty, but I did buy a few recently.

And on they go to lose 7% in three days lol
This is karma biting me in the ass for being such a horrible human being.
Well deserved.

[Seppia]

@jacob
It feels like this bull market really wants to die, but always manages to survive one way or another.
My completely rational prediction is that Trump is a very lucky man: I bet the bear market starts soon after the election (if he loses), so that he can claim forever that “dems destroyed the stock market”.
If he wins, who knows.

[Augustus]

Real estate in my area is on track to have the most active inventory since 2011, in the past whenever real estate has hit this level of active inventory it has almost always had a correction. I am hoping the bull market finally kicks the bucket soon. I wouldn't be surprised if it takes a couple years to bottom out though. But who knows..

[IlliniDave]

@jacob
It feels like this bull market really wants to die, but always manages to survive one way or another.
My completely rational prediction is that Trump is a very lucky man: I bet the bear market starts soon after the election (if he loses), so that he can claim forever that “dems destroyed the stock market”.
If he wins, who knows.

If the dems prevail and do all the taxing they "promise", then yes they'll trigger a significant recession, of that I am as certain as I can be. Trump might trigger one himself before the election. Playing hardball against China is not easy (but in the long run, it's necessary IMO) even if the US were unified behind him. As it is China can just wait (historically that gov't has no compunction about putting its people through difficult times) and hope their old crony Biden gets back in so they can cash in on their "investment" with Hunter.

[classical_Liberal]

If the dems prevail and do all the taxing they "promise", then yes they'll trigger a significant recession, of that I am as certain as I can be.

If this taxation has retributive effects (which is basically what the dems want), I believe the velocity of money will begin to increase as well. The increased QE monetary supply will finally translate into a bit more consumer "spending" vs investments. This will lead to higher demand-side inflationary pressures. Unfortunately, if our (the US) cheap supply line of consumer goods is disrupted from China, we could be looking at both supply side inflation as well.

[jacob]

Powell put (yesterday). The market is now priced in for a cut later this year.

[jacob]

Today's headline: "Stocks rise as disappointing jobs report fuels hopes of a Fed rate cut".

I think this could be a title of a movie ... or a forensic report. It's that good.

[Seppia]

The main reason why I haven't been implementing any big changes in my approach in the last few years is that I have absolutely no grasp on today's reality.
I am used to not understanding a lot of stuff, but so many things happening are completely counter to all I consider "sane" (the above mentioned title, bitcoin, politics in general), that I feel the only logical reaction is to stay put and / or just implement minor tweaks
carry more cash
go a bit more defensive with stocks
etc
but everything I do, I do it slow and smooth, nothing sudden.

It's been at least 4 years I expect something big to happen, but it never did, so I'm glad I didn't get overly excited nor overly gloomy

I'm always amazed at how the old "when in doubt, do nothing" adage proves to be great advice time and time again

[oldbeyond]

The reasoning seems to be that the long term equity return is also always the short term equity return, making the ever lower discount rates a boon. I don't think we'll get our God-given 8% per annum going forward given what treasury yields are telling us about the economy, but perhaps that's only because us heretics will bring the miracle down with our lack of faith and blasphemous inquiries.

[IlliniDave]

The main reason why I haven't been implementing any big changes in my approach in the last few years is that I have absolutely no grasp on today's reality.

Ha, the same is true for me except I'd just strike "today's". The whole time I've been investing (I'm in decade 4) It's been rare that the short-/intermediate-term movement of stock prices made sense. It's gaggles of people speculating on how to exploit the effect of different gaggles of people's speculation how to exploit the effect of yet more gaggles of people's speculation on how to exploit a generally unknown future.

[IlliniDave]

Today's headline: "Stocks rise as disappointing jobs report fuels hopes of a Fed rate cut".

I think this could be a title of a movie ... or a forensic report. It's that good.

I've been chuckling at the superficial illogic of this type of cycle for several years now: Good news, market down; bad news, market up. If I weren't an "over-saver" I might lose sleep over it.

[Lemur]

Keeping my eye on this...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slack_Technologies

IPO expected June 20 I believe.

[2Birds1Stone]

Exchanged $20k of IVV for cash yesterday morning. Bringing AA down to 55% equities.

Strange times we live in, bad news = good for the markets? Makes sense....

[Dream of Freedom]

Bought PSTL @ 15.97. I've had good luck with reit IPOs. They can grow fast with all the new money and the dividend entices new investors eventually.

[Seppia]

Great note dropped today from Oaktree (Howard Marks)

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/def ... ferent.pdf

[Dream of Freedom]

Bought MMM @ 168.89

[Dream of Freedom]

Bought DEA @18.65

[jacob]

@Seppia - Did you read Howard Mark's [latest] book about cyclical investing? It's been working rather well for me over the past 2 years. Powell on Wednesday will be interesting.

[Seppia]

No but it’s on my list since I heard the podcast where he spoke about it with Barry Ritholtz.
Aside from the usefulness, did you enjoy reading it?

Edit
A good interview with him
https://themarket.ch/interview/investor ... ing-ld.259