Investments Trade Log

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jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Powell put (yesterday). The market is now priced in for a cut later this year.

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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Today's headline: "Stocks rise as disappointing jobs report fuels hopes of a Fed rate cut".

I think this could be a title of a movie ... or a forensic report. It's that good.

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

The main reason why I haven't been implementing any big changes in my approach in the last few years is that I have absolutely no grasp on today's reality.
I am used to not understanding a lot of stuff, but so many things happening are completely counter to all I consider "sane" (the above mentioned title, bitcoin, politics in general), that I feel the only logical reaction is to stay put and / or just implement minor tweaks
carry more cash
go a bit more defensive with stocks
etc
but everything I do, I do it slow and smooth, nothing sudden.

It's been at least 4 years I expect something big to happen, but it never did, so I'm glad I didn't get overly excited nor overly gloomy

I'm always amazed at how the old "when in doubt, do nothing" adage proves to be great advice time and time again

oldbeyond
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by oldbeyond »

The reasoning seems to be that the long term equity return is also always the short term equity return, making the ever lower discount rates a boon. I don't think we'll get our God-given 8% per annum going forward given what treasury yields are telling us about the economy, but perhaps that's only because us heretics will bring the miracle down with our lack of faith and blasphemous inquiries.

IlliniDave
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by IlliniDave »

Seppia wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:15 pm
The main reason why I haven't been implementing any big changes in my approach in the last few years is that I have absolutely no grasp on today's reality.
Ha, the same is true for me except I'd just strike "today's". The whole time I've been investing (I'm in decade 4) It's been rare that the short-/intermediate-term movement of stock prices made sense. It's gaggles of people speculating on how to exploit the effect of different gaggles of people's speculation how to exploit the effect of yet more gaggles of people's speculation on how to exploit a generally unknown future.

IlliniDave
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by IlliniDave »

jacob wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:29 am
Today's headline: "Stocks rise as disappointing jobs report fuels hopes of a Fed rate cut".

I think this could be a title of a movie ... or a forensic report. It's that good.
I've been chuckling at the superficial illogic of this type of cycle for several years now: Good news, market down; bad news, market up. If I weren't an "over-saver" I might lose sleep over it.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Keeping my eye on this...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slack_Technologies

IPO expected June 20 I believe.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

Exchanged $20k of IVV for cash yesterday morning. Bringing AA down to 55% equities.

Strange times we live in, bad news = good for the markets? Makes sense....

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Bought PSTL @ 15.97. I've had good luck with reit IPOs. They can grow fast with all the new money and the dividend entices new investors eventually.

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Great note dropped today from Oaktree (Howard Marks)

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/def ... ferent.pdf

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Bought MMM @ 168.89

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Bought DEA @18.65

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

@Seppia - Did you read Howard Mark's [latest] book about cyclical investing? It's been working rather well for me over the past 2 years. Powell on Wednesday will be interesting.

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

No but it’s on my list since I heard the podcast where he spoke about it with Barry Ritholtz.
Aside from the usefulness, did you enjoy reading it?

Edit
A good interview with him
https://themarket.ch/interview/investor ... ing-ld.259
Last edited by Seppia on Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

No! Professional investors tend to be terrible writers. I do enjoy my returns though.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Waiting for earnings on June 26 to see if revenue keeps falling:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FIZZ?p= ... c=fin-srch

Stock is low evident by its 52 week range. My DCF analysis shows an undervalued stock within a 50% margin of safety...

https://i.imgur.com/5JLxrK3.png

Just unsure about long-term business prospects. Either way waiting until June 26 is a good idea right based on :

(1) Stock falls after revenue reports, I update my DCF analysis which will likely show an undervalued stock, keep holding until trend reverses
(2) Revenue starts picking back up and at that point I jump back in (would probably lose a little bit of the short-term pop but long-term will be better off?

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Bought APPS @4.97 With stop @4.50.

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Passive investments such as index funds and exchange-traded funds control about 60% of the equity assets, while quantitative funds, those which rely on trend-following models instead of fundamental research from humans, now account for 20% of the market share, according to estimates from J.P. Morgan.
"I'm not at all a fan of passive investing. In fact, I think passive investing ... has reached mania status as we went into the peak of the global stock market," Gundlach said in December.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/28/80p ... pilot.html

80% passive. Has automated investing become a systematic risk?

thedollar
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

Dream of Freedom wrote:
Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:34 pm
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/28/80p ... pilot.html

80% passive. Has automated investing become a systematic risk?
Passive investments are passive. Wouldn't that mean a higher level of stability ? Not increased sensitivity to headlines that are argued in the article. I seriously don't see the stock market being more volatile than historically. It's normal to have 20% fluctuations within a year.

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Sold APPS @5.19 for a 3.37% gain in 4 days after commitions.

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