Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Just picked up some HCA.

I sold UTX. It has nothing to do with the fundamentals it is just that they are splitting up the company. Spinoffs actually tend do do well, but I don't have the scale to make it work in this case. The reorganization fee for tdameritrade is $48 and since the number of stocks goes from 1 to 3 commissions to sell will triple. With only a $2100 position I don't have the size to make it worth it.

My screen (doesn't matter what it is... those who really want to know can look somewhere above) now only shows 2 (TWO!) candidates left out of the 8000+ listed companies. They're both oil refineries and thus false positives. Melt-up seems about right.

Seppia wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:58 am

Of the many things I do not understand about Hussman, is why he keeps his negative outlook on USA markets and doesn’t think about investing in others.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/strategic- ... onal-fund/ (since 2009)

Otherwise the reason is that most funds are limited by their prospectus to invest within certain parameters, e.g. 95% must be invested in US equities at all times, etc. Very few funds give their managers wide flexible discretion to invest in whatever/wherever/whenever. This is also why funds can't go into cash even if their managers want to. Steven Romick at FPA is the only exception I can think of at the moment. BRK as well, of course, insofar you think of that as a no-fee fund.

@jacob, so what do you then when there are basically no fairly valued companies? Sell it all off and sit on a pile of cash?

No trade yet, but I paid dearly last few weeks for buying (& holding) SNH a few years ago. They recently lost their biggest client and the dividend was cut by over 50% (and the stock price as well).

Expensive learning money, but a good lesson to have learned nonetheless!

This is my buy-screen which is different from my sell-screen. All it means is that I'm not buying anything(*) because as far as my strategy is concerned, there's nothing to buy currently. Other strategies might still have candidates on their buy list.

(*) Which means I'm buying cash or brokered CDs to be precise. It's important to remember that cash is also a position. It's easy to confuse it for a unit of measurement, but it's really not. E.g. if you're Zuckerberg, your unit of measurement is or should be FB stock, e.g. how many shares to build this charity hospital, not how many dollars.

About time for the melt up to happen! I’m already 15% done building my FIRE stock portfolio via DCA. Time for stocks to go on sale so I can get more bang for my buck

My screen shows about 15 viable options, over half of which are regional banks and asset managers.

cmonkey wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:45 am

My screen shows about 15 viable options, over half of which are regional banks and asset managers.

I've stayed away from bank stocks ever since the fiscal reporting rules for them were made less transparent in the Great Recession.

Just bought skyworks solutions (swks)@87.49. 5G is on the way!

https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/duke-fuqua-i ... curve-2019

If I was to "time the market" I would speculate that the market could eek out another year maybe 18 months of gains before the inevitable downfall. At least according to this guy we need an inverted yield curve for a full-quarter; its flat now and the FED is not raising rates right now at least...

Re posting from my journal...wonder if anyone has some insights into this line of thinking:

"I've read tons of articles lately about the yield curve, the federal funds rate, and other macroeconomic concepts. I'm starting to find it weird that everyone and their mom keeps shouting "time in the market > timing the market." SURELY over the long-term this works but couldn't one beat the index in the long-term if they time themselves properly over seemingly obvious macroeconomic indicators?" A bit of a loaded question on second thought.

Sold Outfront Media (out) @25 after hours on strength from earnings report.

Looks like the Uber IPO will be fun to watch. Drivers are going on strike the day before the IPO.

Hain Celestial has done well for me lately.

Just some interesting color for today's market from 1988.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CIlHKF_uOA

Just bought 50 Uber @37.47. It's a trade not an investment. I just think that the stock's beating though deserved is probably over.

Sold Uber @40.86. Not bad for 1 day in the market.

Anyone loading up on WBA or CVS yet? Yields are near historic highs.

I’m really tempted to sell my P&G stock. I still think it’s an excellent company, but it’s priced handsomely

P&G has come up nicely, yes. If the yield drops to 2.5, it's out the door!