Investments Trade Log

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
Seppia
Posts: 955
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:58 am

Of the many things I do not understand about Hussman, is why he keeps his negative outlook on USA markets and doesn’t think about investing in others.
By all measures (the ones he likes best, those who look at forward 10-15 year returns) Europe and especially emerging markets are fairly to cheapishly valued.

He’s always positioned himself in a way that if he is wrong with the timing, he suffers losses, when if he instead simply said “USA markets are crazy high now compared to the rest, so I’ll buy foreign stuff instead” he would have underperformed without looking like a laughingstock.

Seppia
Posts: 955
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:12 am

I mean now that the 3 month - 10 year curve has inverted he may finally be right, it would be amazing if he flipped just ahead of a massive crash :lol:

bryan
Posts: 1037
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan » Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:46 pm

Bought some Zillow since they now have plans to get into the real estate business more directly (offering financing, will buy properties directly (presumably low hassle, low offer)).

cmonkey
Posts: 1765
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:29 am

PMD is interesting. The company has a strong balance sheet, good growth prospects (thanks cannibus and opiods) and has a very nice dividend payment that appears well covered.

From their last earning release -
Reported earnings show a decline. However, because of the tax and foreign currency exchange rate impact, our reported numbers do not reflect the underlying strength of the company.

jennypenny
Posts: 6193
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
Location: Stepford USA

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny » Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:15 am

Finally got around to buying Lyft. Glad I waited.

eta: I could be totally wrong about Lyft. I hope no one buys stocks just because of what's posted in this thread.

User avatar
Dream of Freedom
Posts: 371
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom » Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:44 am

Just picked up some HCA.

User avatar
Dream of Freedom
Posts: 371
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom » Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:03 am

I sold UTX. It has nothing to do with the fundamentals it is just that they are splitting up the company. Spinoffs actually tend do do well, but I don't have the scale to make it work in this case. The reorganization fee for tdameritrade is $48 and since the number of stocks goes from 1 to 3 commissions to sell will triple. With only a $2100 position I don't have the size to make it worth it.

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 11065
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:23 am

My screen (doesn't matter what it is... those who really want to know can look somewhere above) now only shows 2 (TWO!) candidates left out of the 8000+ listed companies. They're both oil refineries and thus false positives. Melt-up seems about right.

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 11065
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:34 am

Seppia wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:58 am
Of the many things I do not understand about Hussman, is why he keeps his negative outlook on USA markets and doesn’t think about investing in others.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/strategic- ... onal-fund/ (since 2009)

Otherwise the reason is that most funds are limited by their prospectus to invest within certain parameters, e.g. 95% must be invested in US equities at all times, etc. Very few funds give their managers wide flexible discretion to invest in whatever/wherever/whenever. This is also why funds can't go into cash even if their managers want to. Steven Romick at FPA is the only exception I can think of at the moment. BRK as well, of course, insofar you think of that as a no-fee fund.

Quadalupe
Posts: 103
Joined: Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:56 am
Location: the Netherlands

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Quadalupe » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:32 am

@jacob, so what do you then when there are basically no fairly valued companies? Sell it all off and sit on a pile of cash?

No trade yet, but I paid dearly last few weeks for buying (& holding) SNH a few years ago. They recently lost their biggest client and the dividend was cut by over 50% (and the stock price as well).

Expensive learning money, but a good lesson to have learned nonetheless!

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 11065
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:44 am

This is my buy-screen which is different from my sell-screen. All it means is that I'm not buying anything(*) because as far as my strategy is concerned, there's nothing to buy currently. Other strategies might still have candidates on their buy list.

(*) Which means I'm buying cash or brokered CDs to be precise. It's important to remember that cash is also a position. It's easy to confuse it for a unit of measurement, but it's really not. E.g. if you're Zuckerberg, your unit of measurement is or should be FB stock, e.g. how many shares to build this charity hospital, not how many dollars.

niemand
Posts: 89
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 3:18 am
Location: Woop Woop, Australia

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by niemand » Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:50 pm

About time for the melt up to happen! I’m already 15% done building my FIRE stock portfolio via DCA. Time for stocks to go on sale so I can get more bang for my buck ;)

cmonkey
Posts: 1765
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:45 am

My screen shows about 15 viable options, over half of which are regional banks and asset managers.

George the original one
Posts: 4733
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one » Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:05 pm

cmonkey wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:45 am
My screen shows about 15 viable options, over half of which are regional banks and asset managers.
I've stayed away from bank stocks ever since the fiscal reporting rules for them were made less transparent in the Great Recession.

User avatar
Dream of Freedom
Posts: 371
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom » Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:21 am

Just bought skyworks solutions (swks)@87.49. 5G is on the way!

User avatar
Lemur
Posts: 283
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur » Fri May 03, 2019 2:34 pm

https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/duke-fuqua-i ... curve-2019

If I was to "time the market" I would speculate that the market could eek out another year maybe 18 months of gains before the inevitable downfall. At least according to this guy we need an inverted yield curve for a full-quarter; its flat now and the FED is not raising rates right now at least...

Re posting from my journal...wonder if anyone has some insights into this line of thinking:

"I've read tons of articles lately about the yield curve, the federal funds rate, and other macroeconomic concepts. I'm starting to find it weird that everyone and their mom keeps shouting "time in the market > timing the market." SURELY over the long-term this works but couldn't one beat the index in the long-term if they time themselves properly over seemingly obvious macroeconomic indicators?" A bit of a loaded question on second thought.

User avatar
Dream of Freedom
Posts: 371
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom » Tue May 07, 2019 4:05 pm

Sold Outfront Media (out) @25 after hours on strength from earnings report.

User avatar
Dream of Freedom
Posts: 371
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom » Tue May 07, 2019 5:06 pm

Looks like the Uber IPO will be fun to watch. Drivers are going on strike the day before the IPO.

OTCW
Posts: 398
Joined: Thu Mar 31, 2011 12:55 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by OTCW » Tue May 07, 2019 9:37 pm

Hain Celestial has done well for me lately.

User avatar
Dream of Freedom
Posts: 371
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom » Wed May 08, 2019 5:53 pm

Just some interesting color for today's market from 1988.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CIlHKF_uOA

Post Reply