Investments Trade Log

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:16 pm

jacob wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:35 pm
PG&E (PCG) will file for bankruptcy following potential liabilities from wildfires in 2018 and 2017. This wipes out 17B+ of market value + the equity.

Thanks #climatechange
No skin in the game.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/01/14/ ... ankruptcy/

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:29 pm

S&P Global Ratings reports the cost in lost productivity due to the shutdown was 6B+
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... PJ2MU?il=0

So back of the envelope: Spread over 35 days, that's 6000M/35=171M/day. To put that in perspective, US GDP (2017) was 19390B or 19390000/365=53123M/day. The shutdown thus caused a GDP drag of 171/53123=0.3%. Expect quarterly GDP to be ~0.08% lower than it would otherwise have been.

For financial markets, this reduction in earnings (even trading at at P/E leverage of ~20) will likely mean less than the market's interpretation of how all this went down.

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:45 pm

Grant Williams a guest on MacroVoices (where I also found Chris Cole).

Crony capitalism, populism, violence, the outlook for gold.

Per outlook from Williams (Townsend disagrees), you only need enough dollars to survive the dollar short-squeeze. A strong dollar/worldwide deflation benefits no one, not America, not China, and will eventually be stamped out.

https://www.macrovoices.com/

I am long firearms and canned food.

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:18 am

Neil Howe of “Fourth Turning” fame on Hedgeye TV.

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/72933- ... type=macro

I am short complacency and long a good sense of humor.

To break up the monotony, here is the Constant Agony of Hans Moleman. The plight of Dr. Fisker is at 2m18s.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fVtrlLeuFvY

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:51 am

I took my previous screen (see above) and added a condition for low institutional (that means pension funds, mutual funds, ...) ownership to reduce index exposure as many indexes are float-adjusted.

The screen now returns only 3 viable candidates :shock: ... out of some 8000+. That's a new low.

Also observing that ever since the Powell made some dowish statements, CD yields are no longer increasing/not as high as they were 3 months ago.

slowtraveler
Posts: 703
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:06 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by slowtraveler » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:13 pm

@ Jacob, can I ask what those companies are?

I did the screen you recommend through ValueLine and found 0 matches...

https://imgur.com/a/hlZMTkF

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