Investments Trade Log

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George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one » Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:40 pm

Mr. Market (S&P 500) is down 3% today and my portfolio is up 1%. I really like days like today, they make all the sideways days feel better.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:17 am

My impression from staring at the matrix is that it's beginning to hurt. Even safety-issues are beginning to go down today, so to me this suggests a different tone than the easily identifiable risk-on/risk-off plays we've seen this week. This is people getting margin calls.

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:47 am

For the first time in a couple years, I have manually added to my indexes.

Europe is down 15% from the May peak, while emerging is down 20%, so I threw in 10% of my dry powder.
Let's see how this evolves

slowtraveler
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by slowtraveler » Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:18 pm

International Index VXUS has a dividend yield above 3.1% it seems quite nice relative to the last few years. It's almost up to Wellesley but more tax efficient.

I recently noticed Kimberley Clark and Chlorox have insane ROE ratios due to efficiently using their leverage. Satisfactory dividend rates. I'll look into them more as this plays out. I'm still praying for a market crash and keep adding to my indexes and to my CDs each week.

Proctor and Gamble, has been my best performer to date. At this point I hold around 30 stocks, which, I'm hindsight, is way too many. I think 10 would have sufficed. Still going to do my best to hold them even though I'm tempted to dump a few that don't seem as high quality as the blue chips I have.

I like the companies with a solid dividend that I trust to maintain a quality product and safety margin in the product, interest coverage, payout.

cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:22 pm

George the original one wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:40 pm
Mr. Market (S&P 500) is down 3% today and my portfolio is up 1%. I really like days like today, they make all the sideways days feel better.
I love days like that and I've had a couple lately.

So far I'm down 4.6% for the month which is half the S&P's losses. Feeling pretty good so far...

Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur » Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:26 pm

I wrote my first put option last week. I sold 8 GE $10.50 contracts with expiration on Nov. 23. Lets see if it holds up...

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:56 am

GE just cut their dividend to $0.01

FAANG continues their return trip from the stratosphere. It's clear that some market participants want them back up again. Lots of bounces and relief rallies. Almost every day, there has been an attempt. So far, no good.

Funny thing, if you're not [heavily weighted] in FAANG (either directly or via index funds), you're probably doing okay.

Bankai
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai » Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:06 pm

jacob wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:56 am
Funny thing, if you're not [heavily weighted] in FAANG (either directly or via index funds), you're probably doing okay.
Are you really though? Isn't like half of sp500 & nasdaq shares in bear market already?

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:35 pm

I own precisely 0% FAANGS but recent times haven't exactly been great for the small portion of my portfolio in USA stocks.
P&G have done amazing
IBM, less so
GE, lol

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:41 pm

I'm amazed by ibm by the way.
If they weren't a tech company I bet they would have a higher valuation. Sure, they seem to always go out of their own way to do idiotic things*, but they make a lot of money and they have an 8.something PE ratio with very stable earnings and overall good business.
Sure they have no growth, but in this environment I would take stable+making money any time.

Together with Tesla still being worth above $0, it proves how hard it is to predict stock moves with logic.

This is why I own 40%+ indexes

*in retrospect, I maybe should have considered this

cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:35 am

If you are more weighted toward stable, value stocks you're likely doing better than the indexes, at least from my perspective. Until today, I was beating this pullback by around 50%. Now it's like 30-40%. Today the old paradigm of go go growth stocks has stepped back in because of the jobs/wage report. We'll see how long it lasts.

IBM scares me a bit but until they start a healthcare group and a capital group....I'll hold...

Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:27 pm

Lemur wrote:
Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:26 pm
I wrote my first put option last week. I sold 8 GE $10.50 contracts with expiration on Nov. 23. Lets see if it holds up...
Well geez.

In any case....I think GE cutting their dividend is good news. They need money and paying out dividends just doesn't make sense imo. I also agree with the recent move in selling off unprofitable business projects and focusing on the businesses that are profitable. I doubt the stock will bounce back up to $10.50 by November 23 (technically I need it to be $10.28 to break even w/ premium) but we shall see.

The good news is ...perhaps I've just convinced myself but I think even if I get assigned the shares it won't be such a bad thing. GE should be poised to bounce back. Perhaps if I am patient the stock can get back into the $20s in about a year or two.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:32 am

The reason why a company doesn't cut it entirely to zero even if they need all the money is the realization that many investors and funds will not buy a company if it doesn't pay a dividend or doesn't have a history of it. Many investors just check a box on their screens. Same behavior for ETFs. Another example is dividend growth ... where companies under pressure raise their dividend 1 cent or even half a cent at a time just so they can maintain their status as a dividend grower or aristocrat. Thus by paying $0.01, GE stays active in those ETFs and portfolios.

Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:50 pm

jacob wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:32 am
The reason why a company doesn't cut it entirely to zero even if they need all the money is the realization that many investors and funds will not buy a company if it doesn't pay a dividend or doesn't have a history of it. Many investors just check a box on their screens. Same behavior for ETFs. Another example is dividend growth ... where companies under pressure raise their dividend 1 cent or even half a cent at a time just so they can maintain their status as a dividend grower or aristocrat. Thus by paying $0.01, GE stays active in those ETFs and portfolios.
Did not know this. Thanks!

Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:50 pm

Edit: This actually violates Wash-Sale rules (buying a similar security) so I cancelled this order but left the post here. Initially, I thought this rule is bypassed for derivatives if you sell the option +30 days out. Turns out this is not the case. Looking into selling AMD puts now.

Sold my shares in General Electric for tax-loss harvesting purposes...took a big loss relatively speaking. That was a good 2% of my networth. I'm aiming to sell GE puts again; this time at $8 strike price $567.00 premium after fees. This puts my breakeven price at $7.19 per share. GE rallied a bit today but will have to fall tomorrow to get my order executed.

I chose an option that is more than 30 days away due to tax-loss harvesting requirements of the 30 day rule.

More details...

GE Current Stock Price: $7.74
Expiration: Jan 18, 2019
Strike Price: $8.00
Contracts: 7
Ask Price of Option: $0.83
Shares Represented: 700
Cash Required: $5,600.00
Premium (-fees): $567
Potential returns if GE is $8.00 or above: 10.13% (Premium - Fees / Cash Required).
Breakeven Shareprice: $7.19 (Cash Required - Premium - Fees / Shares Represented).

This gives me 3 outcomes in order of what I want to happen:

1.) GE rises above $8.00 or more. I keep the premium, avoid share assignment, and walk away with a 10.13% return within 51 days. Play the game again.
2.) GE does not reach $8.00 but stays above $7.19. I still keep the premium, but get assigned the shares; I can still sell the shares at a loss; however, due to the premium I will still come out profiting in the end. Play the game again.
3.) GE does not reach $8.00 and also drops below $7.19. I still keep the premium, but get assigned the shares; I would have to sell at a loss at this point or I could just hold on to GE in the long-term.

I may consider putting a much larger stake in GE for the long-term (and leave the sell put option game altogether) if evidence becomes clear that GE is truly turning around; but this may be a while considering debt problems.

Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur » Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:40 am

With AMD up 6% today (rallying with the market), I am in good position to win this one. I bought this last Thursday.

Stock Symbol AMD
Expiration Date 1-Jan-19
Put $ $21.00
Contracts 2
Purchased @ $1.54
Shares Represented 200
Cash Required $4,200.00
Premium (- fees) $299.00

Potential Return 7.12%
Breakeven SharePrice $19.51

cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:34 pm

Dipped back into correction territory for the 3rd time since Oct 3rd today.

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C » Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:50 pm

Besides being in correction,
- Negative for the calendar year
- Total return of VOO for the past year is now negative
- Also below 200 day SMA
- >80% of U.S. stocks are below their 200-day SMA
- New highs vs. new lows (highs and lows over past 52 weeks) is 97% vs. 3%

oldbeyond
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by oldbeyond » Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:02 am

I'm now 100% cash since all of my chosen asset classes(global large cap, global small cap, local mid cap, EM equity, PM) are all below their 200 SMA. Boring but safe. Interesting to see when I'll get in again and where.

Bankai
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai » Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:07 pm

Those DOW & S&P 500 charts start to look really scary.

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