Investments Trade Log

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distracted_at_work
Posts: 202
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:51 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by distracted_at_work » Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:47 am

I really really want to buy SHOP. I've regreted missing the boat since I started following it from $30 last year. This one is listed in Canada and the U.S.A. Any thoughts?

Chad
Posts: 3863
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad » Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:03 am

SSW is interesting. The short-term negative is the rise of populism and protectionism. It seems to be receding a little, but it's hard to count it out for good. The long-term negative is super cheap automated factories that can be easily retooled because of advanced AIs (not SciFi AIs). These factories will reduce the cost of labor to a point where it won't matter that much for many items and could make it more feasible to just build a bunch of small factories near or in the major population centers and economies of the world. This would cut out a portion of overseas shipping that SSW does.

I do like the valuation, dividend, and the fact that it actually makes money. They did cut their dividend recently, but that just brought it in-line with their current profit level. I would think shipping would rebound from the beating it has taken over the last two years, if populism and protectionism don't get in the way.

Chad
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad » Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:19 am

I would rather buy AMZN that SHOP. I keep hoping for a nice 10-15% pullback on AMZN to buy some more. The recent pullback didn't quite go far enough.

A really good analysis of what AMZN does:
https://stratechery.com/2017/amazons-new-customer/

That does not mean I hate SHOP. I just think AMZN is the Standard Oil of the modern age and competes tangentially with SHOP. Though, I'm not even sure there is a historical comparison for what AMZN will probably become. Maybe the East India Company?

cmonkey
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Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:55 am

I doubt you are going to get a pullback like that. This latest drop was probably one of the best you'll get. Maybe if some antitrust efforts get started? Seems likely at some point.

AMZN is pure bubble/speculation and the sky is the limit until their moat dries up, but since they keep making it deeper that is unlikely. 5K per share by 2020 if future P/E follows past.

Chad
Posts: 3863
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:15 am

Nothing ever goes straight up or down. Three months from now analysts will be asking why AMZN hasn't capitalized on the WFM purchase and start saying AMZN is faltering. Some news agencies will pick it up and run with it, and some AMZN delivery truck will hit some little old lady and...the pullback appears. But, who knows, you might be right. Maybe I never get more, which is fine. I don't like buying companies, even historic ones, near highs.

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jennypenny
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Location: Stepford USA

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny » Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:58 pm

Why is amazon still considered a tech company? I saw Bezos was at the WH yesterday with Schmidt and Cook and wondered why amazon is lumped in with Alphabet and Apple.

bryan
Posts: 1046
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan » Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:29 pm

I guess it inherited the trait from the dot com era? Any business that was online as a front-end is a tech company. Like, do you consider EBAY, ETSY, UBER, or NETFLIX a tech company today? Then again, at least amazon gets some good money from AWS and kindles.

cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:42 pm

AWS supports this image as well. They have done a lot of pioneering in the cloud tech space.

Also, why break a catchy acronym (FANG)?

Chad
Posts: 3863
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad » Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:39 am

Amazon is most definitely a tech company. It's not what they sell, 99% of their stuff is sold by other stores, or that they deliver. It's how they sell and how their systems allow them to be efficient.

Some of their tech stuff:
- Prime video
- Prime music
- Warehouse robots
- Efficient inventory systems
- Efficient delivery systems - I can get some stuff the same day in DC.
- Echo (AI) and machine learning
- Data - Customer, vendor, delivery, etc.
- AWS - If AWS was a stand alone company it would still be in the Fortune 500

Selling physical goods is what everyone sees, but their real business is all behind the scenes. The physical goods are the proverbial tip of the iceberg.

A better question going forward is what company isn't a tech company? Wal-Mart just bought Jet.com trying to catch-up to Amazon. I have also noticed, as I have looked for jobs in the San Fran/San Jose area that Wal-Mart is hiring a lot of high level tech people for their operations in that area.

distracted_at_work
Posts: 202
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:51 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by distracted_at_work » Thu Jun 29, 2017 5:11 pm

This world needs less acronyms not more.

Anyway. I think SHOP will ride up with AMZN as the digital storefront providers while AMZN handles distribution of the product. I bought in today at $111 Canadian, let's see how this goes. If I can make 10% in under a month, I'll be happy. If not, I believe in the business long-term.

George the original one
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Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one » Thu Jun 29, 2017 5:44 pm

Someone controlling a lot of shares dumped OHI today at the open, possibly in fear of Medicaid/Medicare reform.

bryan
Posts: 1046
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan » Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:07 pm

Sold (short) WMT.

Mostly I think their free 2-day shipping will be a disaster. Don't think their relationship w/ vendors is healthy enough to profit so nicely w/ AMZN competition. I was in a store the other day because they had my (uncommon) motor oil on a deep discount, but turns out none were on the shelf. I suspected a pricing mistake because they had overflowing product for the same brand but different spec and for the same product in the auto parts store would be >2x the cost. However, I saw it on their website with free shipping. Sure, why not! (On second thought... Maybe I should re-order even more motor oil..) Meanwhile AMZN is pulling more people into Prime even though it's not such a great deal now.. and if you don't have Prime the free shipping (orders over $35?) is slow as molasses.

giskard
Posts: 81
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:07 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard » Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:59 am

Doubled down on my JP Morgan Chase (JPM) position yesterday (7/3/2017), here is my reasoning:

Interest rates are going up and the Fed has signaled this will continue. JPM just had their capital return plan approved and will raise its dividend to $0.56 from $0.50, along with an almost $20 Billion dollar buyback plan. JPM continues to have a strong balance sheet and has avoided the impending subprime auto loan issues that are starting to hit Capital one, Ally and Santander. I think JPM is priced more reasonably than most of the regional banks, and feels better run than competitors like Bank of America. One big worry is the succession plan for Jamie Dimon.

Chad
Posts: 3863
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad » Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:05 am

cmonkey wrote:
Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:49 am
Any thoughts on SSW? Seems their biggest headwind might be the future of international trade agreements, but I don't know how much these concerns will pan out since Trump can't seem to get anything done. Revenues are higher than ever, but have plateaued a bit. EPS has gone down due to more shares being issued. P/E and P/B are very good.
I hope you bought some of it.

cmonkey
Posts: 1790
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:15 am

Chad wrote:
Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:05 am
I hope you bought some of it.
I have not yet but am still considering...reason?

Chad
Posts: 3863
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad » Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:22 am

Just the recent run-up. No fundamental reason.

cmonkey
Posts: 1790
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:27 am

Ok. I do have some cash sitting around so thanks for reminding me of them. Today's pull back looks nice.

Seppia
Posts: 1141
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:46 am

Pardon the double post, but maybe here it will have more visibility:

I have been thinking about commodities, first because all indexes are close to multi year lows, and recently I saw this:

Image

My question would be, what would the best instrument to buy a well diversified basket of commodities without suffering extreme issuer risk/blowup of the instrument risk?

I've looked at
DBC - powershares db commodity index tracking fund - 0.89% TER
GSG - ishares s&p GSCI commodity indexed trust - 0.75% ter

Any recommendations?

distracted_at_work
Posts: 202
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:51 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by distracted_at_work » Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:05 pm

I'd recommend GSG based on TER and that fact that if Blackrock goes out of business/blows-up then we all have bigger problems.

I have a few other comments though if I may.

-These indexes track future contracts making it truly pure commodity play but would you not rather own upstream/production companies?
-TER seems high for my liking on both of the options you presented.
-Do you want to own future contracts on grain/livestock/industrial metals or are you trying to buy the dip in energy?

I don't know anything regarding cows but I can speak a bit to oil & gas. Find a light crude/low debt oil company or a liquids rich/low debt gas company and go nuts. If I had cash right now, I'd take a look at Vermilion Energy. Owns production all over the world, hedging political/pipeline risk and can focus on areas that have stronger prices. Relatively safe/high dividend. Good management, great track record. That's my highly technical DD :lol: Edit: I thought Vermilion traded on the NASDAQ as well as TSX but they only trade on TSX and in France.

Back to your question, in Canada we have an ETF called XEG (TER = 0.62) that tracks oil and gas companies rather than futures. I'm sure you can find something like for Europe/U.S.A. if you don't want to go stock picking.

cmonkey
Posts: 1790
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:20 am

Bought some SSW and TEVA in the last few days.

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