Investments Trade Log

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Added position in QS. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QS?p=QS&.tsrc=fin-srch Could not shake off the itch to get in the EV battery market. Decided to go with this one by shaving off some gains in PEP and V. Figured today was a good day since the stock was down 10% with the rest of the market. This position represents 3% of my portfolio.

High-level info: https://www.theverge.com/2020/12/8/2215 ... -charge-vw

2Birds1Stone
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

Lemur wrote:
Thu Dec 10, 2020 10:18 am
Figured today was a good day since the stock was down 10% with the rest of the market. This position represents 3% of my portfolio.

High-level info: https://www.theverge.com/2020/12/8/2215 ... -charge-vw
It's also up 500% in the past month.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@2Birds1Stone

Unsure if this will be one I hold long-term. I did a similar strategy with PLUG. It is more about taking advantage of short-term run-ups and pumps. I gained a good premium today on a covered call too on the position. (I may just in fact sell weekly CC's on $85).

Just like tech was all the rage post-covid, the EV battery market is the new pump...calculated risk taking is the name of the game.

I do wonder though why I just don't buy LEAPS.

Edit: One more thing...I wouldn't say what I'm doing is necessarily a strategy. It is more of gambles and hunches. But what I do know is that EV battery market is all the rage right now...and if there is solids dips...short-term profit is easier.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@2Birds1Stone

Well that went well lol

Image

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Some trades for this week: Will be setting up weekly CC's on QS. Already trying to recover from that :/ luckily IV is high.

Been a while since I've "run the wheel" on a stock but I think PLTR is the perfect stock to do this on right now for various reasons...

Here is an option trade I am looking to set-up Monday Morning.

Trade: 8 Cash-Secured Puts
Stock: PLTR
Expiration Date: Jan 15, 2021
DTE: ~30 days
Strike: $24.00
Delta: -0.2939
Put Option Value: ~2.00 (Subject to change Monday Morning)
IV: 122.95%

PLTR has a lot of bullish sentiment and also a lot of hype...The high IV will give a good premium. I specifically choose the 30-45 day range for CSPs because of Theta. I usually look to close out the trade a 50% profit so if the stock has a run-up next week it looks like I may be able to quickly close out. Additionally, I'm thinking we're going to have a green week due to the Vaccine authorization.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

if you're theta-harvesting wouldn't it make more sense to sell 4 weeklies as opposed to 1 monthly. or am i missing something

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@ertyu

Perhaps. To achieve the same ~0.30 Delta I would have to go with a higher stock price. Stocks that have higher IV also are more volatile and if I'm trying to avoid assignment to repeat the CSP, then I would more likely want to go with a monthly to help manage my position better.

Edit: Executed 8 CSPs on PLTR this morning for Jan-15-2021 @ $25.00 strike price. Premium $2.65. I've a 'buy to close' pending at $1.30 to close out. @ertyu I guess this is another benefit as well for doing a monthly is I don't have to be as active as doing a weekly. I could more 'sit back and wait' and just wait for the email notification if my order executes.
Last edited by Lemur on Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:42 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Alphaville
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Alphaville »

does anyone here currently dabble in the forex trade?

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

I do, kind of. Not on a daily basis, but I do make an active choice about whether to keep my cash in euro or in usd. it's now in euro, and i plan to keep it there. i will re-evaluate mid-january.

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

No FOREX for me because I see it as worse than a zero sum game even ignoring fees and taxes, since inflation being positive on average would erode the value of all currencies over time. So in my view, your FOREX edge would have to be pretty high to not only have an expected return above inflation but also above the positive expected return you can get with other asset classes. Comparatively, gold should theoretically match inflation over the very long term, so trading gold is at least a zero sum game after inflation if it turns out you don't have an edge, ignoring taxes and fees.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

Lemur wrote:
Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:03 am
Well that went well lol
Saw it at $60 today.

This is why I don't have the risk tolerance for individual stocks like some of you folks.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@2Birds1Stone

All good though. QS is only 3% of my portfolio. Tis but a scratch :lol: but managing cost basis using weekly covered calls till I'm back in the green. This will take great patience because it appears I bought this thing right at the top before a correction. Its really funny how I found this stock...determined this may be a good long-term hold, bought, then you come in "Lemur this thing is up 500% in the past month". I was thinking "umm that is a good point" then it falls the very next day lol. I'm at $68.60 cost basis (bought all my shares right on $70.00) so hopefully it will start to come back up.

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Alphaville
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Alphaville »

Lucky C wrote:
Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:20 am
No FOREX for me because I see it as worse than a zero sum game even ignoring fees and taxes, since inflation being positive on average would erode the value of all currencies over time. So in my view, your FOREX edge would have to be pretty high to not only have an expected return above inflation but also above the positive expected return you can get with other asset classes. Comparatively, gold should theoretically match inflation over the very long term, so trading gold is at least a zero sum game after inflation if it turns out you don't have an edge, ignoring taxes and fees.
oh, i see your point about inflation, yeah, but i didn't mean forex as a store of value for the long-term future (investment)-- just as pure speculative trade (day trade or swing trade) either for profit or education.

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Based on the direction this thread has gone this year, perhaps there should be a new thread titled Speculation Trade Log instead :)

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@Lucky C

I was actually thinking of something along those lines...thought about having an options trade log. Speculative bets and options strategies have there place IMO.

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Alphaville
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Alphaville »

Lucky C wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:19 am
Based on the direction this thread has gone this year, perhaps there should be a new thread titled Speculation Trade Log instead :)
yeah, my long term investments are in a pension fund i can't touch. i find the idea of trading for retirement a bit risqué. but trading for profit, different story :D

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

What might be even more useful is a log for stocks/assets that have become to much of a popular crowded trade, in order to avoid them. For example, if a friend/neighbor/relative (someone who hasn't spent a lot of time studying investments) mentions a stock unprompted, that often means it is at or near a short term top. In the past few years I have seen that happen with cryptocurrencies, gold, TSLA, GILD, and most recently my mom mentioning PFE & MRNA. Sometimes they (unintentionally) nail the top within 1 day after a long rally.

We could also log what our emotions are telling us - what we really want to buy due to FOMO for example. A log of what NOT to buy, in other words.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

You would've been right on crypto and TSLA though even if you had FOMO.......especially if you bought TSLA/Bitcoin in the past few years and held. Perhaps FOMO just 'warrants further due diligence'.

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giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Lucky C wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:19 am
Based on the direction this thread has gone this year, perhaps there should be a new thread titled Speculation Trade Log instead :)

Haha yes... @Lemur I just bought some more PLTR calls at the low this week, this time May 2021 expiration so that's a pretty short time frame for me. It's just so volatile, it's great for the wheel, it's great for capturing short spikes and dips. If it goes higher I'll sell the short dated calls. If it goes lower I will buy the stock and sell calls against it. Hopefully it keeps doing these 20% up/down weekly ping pongs.

I also picked up a few CCJ Leaps (uranium miner) this week and last. I bought more XLE (energy etf) and more URA (uranium etf). Adding more to the "reflation" theme.

I have a lot of calls getting assigned tomorrow so probably will buy some SQ with the excess cash or sell more puts on miners.

Maybe I will also buy some more bitcoin this week.
Lucky C wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:54 am
We could also log what our emotions are telling us - what we really want to buy due to FOMO for example. A log of what NOT to buy, in other words.
OK then maybe I should not do the the SQ trade. I want to get exposure to Square so bad but its just so pricey here. I think I'll FOMO and buy some anyway.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

- Sold my stock in QS at 10% profit (how wild is this...not even a week ago I was down 20%).
- Sold my stock in PEP.
- Bought back into VISA using QS and PEP proceeds.
- Sold 1 put on QS for $65 strike expiring January 22. For just $6500 capital, I earned a $1600 premium (indicating an immediate 24.61% return) :shock: . IV is incredibly high but so is risk. Stock is trading at $80 as of this morning. As per my strategy, I aim to close this out at 50% profit.

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