considered this, but it traps margin cash for comparatively little harvested premium. SPX daytrading more fun.
(expect a post about how i've blown myself up yet again soon, i expect)
considered this, but it traps margin cash for comparatively little harvested premium. SPX daytrading more fun.
ToFI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:46 pmFew days ago, I had the urge to convert everything to cash but resisted after reviewing my investment plan and stick with it. My stocks still keeping the out performance with SP500. It's 10% above the SP500 Year to date (Since Dec 31, 2019) during the worse panic of last few weeks. It's consistent of the 15% out performance per year from the past 5 years so I'll keep the growth stocks.
When fear is maximized, bottom is near. It could be we are near the bottom.
Here, the enemy is the market psychology and yourself is of course your own psychology. Understanding the market psychology is objectively difficult but not impossible. The index cult does have a strategy that is in complete accordance with their beliefs: They understand themselves and insist that the market cannot be understood, so they refuse to do battle. This is wise. Learning the enemy takes time and talent. Whether this succeeds or not is not random luck but the split accounts for the other two categories.Sun Tzu wrote: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
Furthermore, I also believe that one can be greatly mistaken in his assessment on how well he knows the enemy. Better to be on the left side of mount stupid than stuck at the peak.jacob wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:45 pmThe index cult does have a strategy that is in complete accordance with their beliefs: They understand themselves and insist that the market cannot be understood, so they refuse to do battle. This is wise. Learning the enemy takes time and talent. Whether this succeeds or not is not random luck but the split accounts for the other two categories.
The unemployment numbers were devastating and they just kept printing through it. What stops them from printing through earnings season? I don't argue that economic fundamentals are shitty and that there is a severe mismatch between valuations and fundamentals. But they can make valuations whatever they want. This market is a function of the fed's balance sheet and of opex/dealer gamma hedging. We're a long way away from Kansas, even if our brains want to cling to a sense of normalcy in how the market "should" work. If the market worked how it should work, valuations would have gone down long, long ago.