Investments Trade Log

[ertyu]

Ha I have been thinking about Russia for the same reasons. Doesn't look too liquid + I could be smarter at sector analysis (I did notice it's mainly energy + commodities + Sberbank haha). Russia seems like they will benefit from climate change, too. Yes their permafrost melting liberates anthrax, but think of the usable land and natural resources!

[Lucky C]

This article helped motivate me to buy a few SPY puts.

[George the original one]

Cleaning the portfolio. One of the obvious things to ditch was WPC as their dividend hasn't been increasing as fast as inflation, yet the share price went silly this year (40%?) and a yield that was 5%-6% is now 4.7%. So am gonna bank those capital gains!

WPC is getting closer to where it should be for a re-purchase. Trying hard not to jump the gun as it needs to fall at least another 5 points.

[ertyu]

bahaha tsla @420 the roof is on fire congrats to whoever had the guts to put on the trade i thought we'd go up but i chickened out

[Seppia]

Tsla stock is probably the most mind blowing of all.
The valuation is already insane on any possible metric, but the fact that the stock is at an all time high is especially incredible now that all the other structurally unprofitable unicorns have massively deflated in value.
Textbook example of why I would never short a stock

[slowtraveler]

Bought TSLA at 180. Took some off the table in the mid 200's after 50% gains. Maybe time to take some more off the table.

[ertyu]

Bought TSLA at 180. Took some off the table in the mid 200's after 50% gains. Maybe time to take some more off the table.

imo yes, but be advised i have a bear predisposition and always end up taking less risk than optimal

[Seppia]

Kimbal Musk sold 32% of his stake last month at around $350 and the CFO is dumping his stock options as soon as he gets them so yeah, I would definitely take some gains off the table
http://openinsider.com/screener?s=TSLA& ... 100&page=1

[Mister Imperceptible]

This is an industry-wide phenomenon, especially among the unicorns:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uber-co- ... 20434.html

The grand-scale pump-and-dump is almost complete.

[ertyu]

i mean, i get them. i took profits too early and right now i'm just shitting in cash watching. that shit is scary. i bet i'll regret it but i'm too chicken to go long AND too chicken to buy spy puts and have drift + decay eat me up

[Jason]

Bought Boeing (@) $336 after both their product and stock crashed. Jim Cramer said to wait until sub-$300 but they shit canned their CEO and brought back an old stalwart to positive press so I bought my first position. The industry is a duopoly. It's more than 25% off its high. And this really smart lady who specializes in industrials says its great 3-5 year play.

[Seppia]

It feels like there may be some additional ugly news on Boeing, trade carefully
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe

[Jason]

Thank you. As I mentioned, the industry is a duopoly - Boeing/Airbus - which explains that despite the twin tower of corporate disaster and malfeasance - public deaths and cover-up - it has only suffered a modest stock depreciation not a full blown Tyco/Enron meltdown. There is simply no other player to step in and take advantage of its present market weakness. It's an American corporate symbol. It's failure would reek havoc amongst a multitude of industries. My guess is the government will do its requisite FAA dog and pony show all the while conducting back room machinations to prop it up similar to what they did/do with the banks. They have their scape goat in the former CEO. They have already started the "We might have murdered your grandmother but we are ultimately reliable" PR Campaign. I'm sure it will go down or sideways for a while. It's a very slight percentage of my portfolio. And that lady really seemed to know what she was talking about. Hopefully she doesn't die in a plane crash before they get things back on track.

[IlliniDave]

I'm definitely feeling the need to dump some stuff before the end of the year (nothing significant about 12/31, it's just a near-term waypoint). I guess I've been asleep at the switch because I was suprised when I heard the SP500 is ~+30% YTD, meaning I'm overexposed again. I'm not expecting the bottom to fall out in the short-term, but lowering risk at this juncture is more about the unexpected. Over the last few years I've been selling US equities (when I do sell 1-2X/year), holding on ex-US equities, and buying bonds and cash. Thinking I'll lop off ~25% of US equities in my 401k and go with bonds or a stable value fund.

[ertyu]

someone tell me not to put my entire net worth into a convoluted bet that tsla's going down

i'm not going to since it's obvious there's 0 rationality left when that stock is concerned but boy my fingers itch

[thedollar]

I have the opposite problem... someone should tell me not to increase my tsla holdings

[Seppia]

They are a structurally bankrupt company with extremely shaky accounting to say the least*, headed by a lying fraudster**, so there’s that.
But Q4 is going to come in relatively big on the back of subsidies ending in the Netherlands (the model 3 has been the top selling car in the country), and Tesla has an army of completely irrational fanboys (and some shady cheerleaders who are at the same time pumping the stock and dumping shares - see ARK investing) pushing the stock up.

I wouldn’t touch the stock with a 10 foot pole.



*See this thread and look up the follow up from Einhorn
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/11 ... 66561?s=21

**see the current Solar City derivatives trial, see the completely made up claims - 1000000 robotaxis, “full self driving” -, see the completely idiotic products he comes up with and nobody in the news media call him up for - the underground tunnels!
It really is amazing

[ertyu]

Yea I support the dude, I mean, if 25% of what he comes up with sees the light of day the world would be a better place (um, save for that thing where he's making the Terminator). Don't begrudge him the 420 either

Sadly, that's quite separate from TSLA stock

[Mister Imperceptible]

I have been listening to Peter Thiel quite a bit lately. Globalization as 1 to n and Technology as zero to 1 and all that. Globalization being you mass produce typewriters and technology being you build a word processor to replace it. I have yet to pick up a copy of Zero to One but I plan to.

In this presentation he outlines a matrix with determinate/indeterminate on one axis and and optimistic/pessimistic on the other. Portfolio diversification and financialization in the quadrant for indeterminate optimism he says is the current dominant religion and this he does not subscribe to. He says the heyday for this is past but the presentation was given in 2013 and he like many others underestimated the ability of central banks to push it further.

While acknowledging that what Elon Musk may be selling a lot of pipe dreams, how much credit should we give him for trying? NASA is not doing anything, the public sector is not doing anything. What I frequently heard Thiel say is that JFK promised the moon by the end of the 1960s and we got there, while a few years ago the Federal govt couldn’t even launch a website for the ACA, and that in our times a letter by Einstein would get lost in the White House mailroom.

The alternative is business-as-usual short volatility financialization. Buy Coca-Cola, get your GEICO insurance, worship at the alter of Warren Buffet forever and ever Amen, hoping the creaking groaning monstrous Baby-Boomer constructed edifice never collapses (but it will).

I remember reading in Nietzsche (and I am sure he read it somewhere else) that even if you fail in your venture, that fragments of your failure may be used as building blocks for someone else. Elon Musk is doing something, he is taking some of the resources of society and trying to do something, while
the public sector vomits on itself and Warren Buffet sits in his booth and collects tolls.

Even if Musk and others like him fail, their efforts seem better than constructing ghost cities in China or building fucking ride-sharing apps. A future of prosperity will not self-generate while a bunch of Baby Boomers shitting their diapers call the shots in a desperate attempt to perpetuate The Long Now.

I must be feeling indeterminate pessimism today. Does anybody have any weed?

[Jason]

Elon Musk has the ingenuity of Thomas Alva Edison but the personality of P.T. Barnum. What other corporate titan is up on the stand parsing out exactly what he meant by "pedo guy" while his company stock soars. I thought often of buying the stock but never did and now I semi-regret it.