Investments Trade Log

[plantingtheseed]

I managed to add to my SPY put position with SP500 over 3070

I think we're on the same path. Best wishes!

[take2]

@MI - curious what you think the catalyst for a drop will be? I agree with you that markets are decoupled from the wider economy but if they’re being driven up primarily due a lack of options (i.e people treating the stock market like a savings account) then what do you expect will trigger a fall?

[Mister Imperceptible]

When enough people on the inside have found as many bag holders as they can.

Afterwards it will be attributed to an exogenous shock, such as a virus, race war, mean orange guy, Dr Fauci, Thomas Jefferson, Elders of Zion, or lizard overlords.

It will not be blamed on moral hazard and endogenous risk.

After a market tanks the Fed will declare an emergency bailout, and buy a one trillion dollar coin from the Treasury, which in a cash for clunkers program will use the proceeds to buy Steve Mnuchin’s wife’s breast implants back from her. The Treasury will send those used implants back to the Fed in exchange for the trillion dollar coin and the Fed will put the implants on their balance sheet as an asset.

[Jason]

The Treasury will send those used implants back to the Fed in exchange for the trillion dollar coin and the Fed will put the implants on their balance sheet as an asset.

a/k/a The gold digger standard.

[CS]

@MI

So what is the deal with the random misogyny? Does it give you an endorphin rush to plant nasties for the female readers to find? Is it a power thing? Does it give you a rush and a sexual high?

Please explain. Seriously, Jason had just chilled out on that stuff and now things are going back to the way they were. Sigh.

[Jason]

Really? I thought MI merely provided a very accurate assessment as to why this hard driving, super hot, frothing, big bull rally will end with an unexpected and explosive bang causing those who had hoped to remain on top longer to realize that if they had just pulled out earlier they would not have suffered such serious and messy liquidity issues when it prematurely came to an end.

[Mister Imperceptible]

@Jason

lol

@CS

I hope you see that my description above was so absurd it was intended to match the absurdity of ongoing events.

When I use Steve Mnuchin’s wife’s used breast implants as a trope, I am attempting to convey the absurdity with which our government and central bank has so clearly turned the US economy into a bewildering shell game.

I hope also you can see above how their corruption is distracted away from by a media blitz that is instructing is to be mad at something, anything, but whatever we do we should not pay attention to that man behind the curtain. Instead of the moral hazard and corruption we will blame {choose external tormentor}.

I suppose by random misogyny you mean my comments in the Collum thread and I hope I articulated why the treatment of Collum in the public sphere triggers me. And when I use Steve Mnuchin’s wife’s breast implants as a trope, know that I do not know Steve Mnuchin’s wife or whether she has breast implants. I just have seen the picture of her at the Treasury and the image is burned in my mind.



So when I refer to “Steve Mnuchin’s wife’s breast implants,” it is intended as a trope to symbolize “artificially enhanced beauty used to seduce corrupt investment banker who is part of the mechanism to bankrupt the economy and defraud the American people.” Because the (trope of the) used breast implants are like the $7.2 trillion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities on the Fed balance sheet. Worthless. I cannot see how that is an attack on women, rather an attack on all that which is hollow.

But when (more) shit goes down the people are not going to focus their energies to call out the government and the central bank. They will turn on CNN and Fox News and get whipped into a frenzy. If they were “cancelled” they will be mad at and blame the cancel culture and the “cultural Marxists”, if they were mistreated by men they will blame the “misogynists” and if they see a black guy get shot by police on TV they will behead Thomas Jefferson statues. And while everyone’s energy is misdirected the government can continue doing what they do.

So my guess is you are reading misogyny where there is none because like me you have hangups, and I am sorry if you did not get that promotion or opportunity because you were a woman or are jaded by an ex or series of exes. I know there are misogynists or otherwise bad dudes out there. If I were there and if you would let me, I would serve you a stiff drink and give you a foot rub.

[plantingtheseed]

[JCD]

...the increase in the money supply without corresponding increase in production of consumer goods means that $X in Jun 2020 represents a smaller fraction of wealth, as measured by stuff, than $X in Feb 2020. From this perspective nearly all of us are still down, and it puzzles me why more investors choose not to look at it this way. I’m probably missing something.

@Fish

One point worth considering is, did the Fed actually create any currency at all? I get that the US congress created currency in emergency measures and that is inflationary, but the Fed created something else, bank reserves. Yes I know they are talking about buying up other assets, but as of today they've done relatively little of that. They created reserves that the banks could choose to loan out or they could choose to simply hold on to. If they didn't loan that money out, a large portion of the inflated money concerns you raise are not an issue. After all, if I own my own money printer but only ever store my printed money under my own bed, then I didn't really increase the amount of currency in circulation. In fact, if I printed the money then immediately burnt it, it would be the same.

The trouble is, we don't know if the banks loaned those additional reserves out or if they held onto them. So how can you measure your gains/losses when you don't know how much currency really got created. I found Jeff Snider's discussions on this illuminating. The second point is that if the additionally created cash is not circulating, then inflation won't occur. Obviously the cash is circulating around the stock market at present, so there is some velocity of money.

The question is, has the market reinflated because that additional cash congress created and will deflate once people are able to spend that money or will they keep it saved in stocks forever/long enough for it to not matter? In the first case we should expect a delayed crash. In the second case it is inflation that impacts stocks, but not our ability to buy other assets like food. How much of each of those scenarios it is impacts what our real gains/losses are. Once you start asking about 2nd or 3rd order effects around money, it becomes virtually immeasurable with any precision in real time. Thus why evaluate something that sounds depressing, which is theoretical at present and is impossible to measure in real time? I think the inflation and/or deflation question is super important, which is why I've been paying so much attention to it, but measuring the impact in exact terms is not one of the most important aspects. Instead track the risks of what might happen and then bet according to risk/reward or walk away until the game makes sense again.

[giskard]

@Fish

One point worth considering is, did the Fed actually create any currency at all? I get that the US congress created currency in emergency measures and that is inflationary, but the Fed created something else, bank reserves.
...

After all, if I own my own money printer but only ever store my printed money under my own bed, then I didn't really increase the amount of currency in circulation. In fact, if I printed the money then immediately burnt it, it would be the same.

I think you could make a strong argument that things are different this time around with QE. Starting even back in September of 2019 the fed started to buy excess treasury debt that was issued to stabilize the repo market. So QE started back then.

Later, in March, the treasury issued huge amounts of debt that immediately wound up on the federal reserve balance sheet. They relaxed all the rules so the banks could stuff more treasuries on their balance sheets, yet still we see it on the fed balance sheet. Personal incomes actually rose in April because this was deficit spending and a direct injection into the economy.

So now you have QE where you can immediately see this debt being monetized to facilitate deficit spending and large part of that was due to direct fiscal stimulus as well.

It might not be enough to create CPI inflation during this crazy deflationary spiral, but I don't think this is where the story ends.

[Mister Imperceptible]

MSFT and AAPL now have a combined market capitalization greater than the entire German stock market.

[giskard]

Wow SPY futures tried to open down today and they just couldn't. Now we're back positive, another frothy week ahead? Gold futures were also up a lot, think we just hit a 2 month high. I will be doing the wheel again on some gold miners (as usual).

Just watch as once again /es grinds higher on nearly every open:

[Mister Imperceptible]

Portnoy calling out Howard Marks now, this is getting really good.

https://mobile.twitter.com/stoolpreside ... 1745772544

[CS]

@MI

Interesting. I would say that if you feel you have no misogyny, or none intended, then your language is not reflecting your intent. Referring to women's body parts that way is misogynist on several levels - it makes the discussion uncomfortable for women present and it shows an entitlement to talk about a woman's private area (her body).

You have interesting posts. I like it much better when women's bodies were left out of them. And frankly, it's not her job, this treasury thing, no? Surely there is enough to make fun of the in the one in charge without descending on the woman next to him.

[Seppia]

Portnoy calling out Howard Marks now, this is getting really good.

https://mobile.twitter.com/stoolpreside ... 1745772544

I love how these things usually unfold: someone looking like a genius for a while, trolling the old dinosaurs then, after months, years of incredible performance, they get wiped out while the old dinosaur comes in and scoops up a ton of great stuff for 50 cents on the dollar.

My favorite Buffet aphorism will forever be

“Many smart people learned the hard way that a long list of impressive numbers multiplied by a single zero...”

[Jason]

And frankly, it's not her job, this treasury thing, no?

I would bet every dollar she's clutching onto in that picture that she has specific job activities relating to the treasury thing.

[ertyu]

Howard Marks will be pretty much the most ideally positioned guy when this thing shakes out. He's gonna have all the distressed debt in the world to choose from.

And don't diss portnoy; he's not into trading/investing, he's into show business. Don't view his ravings as a signal to call the top or an indication of how dumb the millenials are. He's not dumb; the service he provides is entertainment, not investment. All these "dinosaurs" linking, mentioning, and re-tweeting him so they can showcase how superior they are are simply feeding his popularity.

[Adamski]

Added gold ETF to my portfolio this week. Concerned too much froth in the market, and gold doing so well this year, want to get back in.

[shemp]

https://howardlindzon.com/keep-it-simpl ... -over-spy/

"For years I have been telling people that ask me about index investing to simply buy the $QQQ..."

"...if I was going to choose just one etf/index to invest in over the next 10 years it would still be $QQQ."

"Be prepared for 30-50 percent pullbacks in these ETF’s which seem to happen every 2-5 years..."

Maybe time for Shemp to go on the record with a short recommendation. Rather than $QQQ, pick a weak yet expensive component thereof. Amazon consists of online store, including warehouses and delivery system, plus Amazon Web Services. Both pieces of Amazon have weak switching cost moats, trivial patents, no other moats. Both use easily imitated technology which is currently subject to rapid technological development, so even if Amazon has a lead now, no guarantee they will keep it. Both face serious well-financed competition: online versions of Walmart, etc for the store, Microsoft, IBM, and other tech companies in the case of AWS. I don't do shorts out of principle, but maybe I should reconsider, as a hedge against the 30% of my wealth in US value stocks, which will surely be affected if $QQQ crashes. No need to rush, give AMZN a few more months to really blow off before shorting.

[Lucky C]

SPY is now < 1% above its SMA200 with the end of the month drawing near and broke down below a big wedge as shown here:
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy