Investments Trade Log

[Lemur]

Keeping my eye on DropBox. Just had its IPO recently.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DBX?p=DBX

My intuition is saying a drop is coming this year. I felt like the company IPO'd higher than it should have.
I have done no financial analysis on the company yet. Just going off a hunch.

[TheFIminator]

Thoughts on the Spotify IPO? Worth it or risky?

[arcyallen]

Every IPO is risky, statistically speaking. For every FB there's ten turds. No matter how interesting it is I stay away from them at all costs, especially if they're SO EXCITING!!! That's another warning sign.

[bryan]

Went short on JPM. Well known that I'm not a fan of the financial sector, generally, and this stock has been a good performer, recently. Every time I read interviews with Dimon, his own writing, or accounts of his actions, it gives me the impression that he is not really steering the ship very well. Then again, maybe he (and JPM) have the right connections..

[LuxVenture]

Water cooler talk: I am curious, the general sentiment here (and my own) is of a rising probability that we are approaching the end of the bull market, and that a major drop could happen any day now. Of course, history never quite repeats itself in the same way. I wonder, what are the chances that current prices simply move sideways for the next several years, without a significant net rise OR fall? Volatility doldrums, if you will. I don't know my market history well, but I seem to recall such scenarios have happened before.

I am not presently invested with ~90% of my assets, and it seems others are similarly holding a large % as cash/CDs/other "safe" positions. Wondering if I should have more in the market. Due to my youth, I wasn't around to experience the last big crash first-hand, so I'm largely going off historical accounts and folks reminiscing over '08/'09's similarities to the present day.

What if the market just... keep up truckin' upward for another few years with occasionally burps like the past few months, continuing to defy expectations/precedent?

[jacob]

A collapse requires significant undermining of the house of cards that is the market. This means that many people have to be believing they're doing something intelligent while in reality they're doing something stupid(*). Examples: pricing stocks in clicks in 1999, RE in 2008, and shale in 2013.

(*) Making investments that lose money/destroy value.

Right now I don't see what people might be doing that is stupid. People are certainly overpaying for stocks, but other than that, I don't know what money would go into that's directly a net-loser(**). (Other than maybe crypto because of the energy-requirements ... but that's a small part of the moneyflow; maybe military hardware given increased spending there since that is by definition unproductive.) This suggests that the market will go sideways/up rather than down and that we're in a trading range. If the money that's being dumped into the market via TARP, QE, and now tax breaks ever finds its way into consumer hands, they will be inflation and this will bring down the market (relatively speaking) as interest rates go up. (They're currently going up.)

(**) Something that's economically destructive, that is, negative earnings or cashflow that's only possible from debt or outlier market conditions (fads).

I'd watch the oil price. If it goes up to $100 again, there will be trouble. Right now, the demand doesn't seem to be there.

[wolf]

I bought more of a Commodity ETF which I already own. I think commodities are undervalued and have more upside than downside potential. My innvestment/speculation horizon on this is mid term (3-10 years).

[IlliniDave]

I'm still only buying intermediate-term bonds and MM. Don't see that changing anytime soon. My spider sense does not get looming crash vibes, just a susceptibility to hysteria swings apparently linked mostly to politics. I checked and I'm actually up 1.75% in my 401k YTD. Didn't check VG. It "feels" like I should be down. Of course, I'm just a tweet away from it being -2% YTD.

[George the original one]

I've put a chunk into certificate of deposits, but that's with the knowledge that I need to ensure covering 2.5 years of expenses before my pension begins. IRAs & Roth IRAs are still invested.

[Seppia]

Anybody looking at P&G? It's been dropping like a rock and I may buy a few shares soon

[George the original one]

Anybody looking at P&G? It's been dropping like a rock and I may buy a few shares soon

Instead of P&G, take a look at CLX & their dividend growth. They've crossed into the 3% yield zone and whenever CLX does that, they are an automatic buy for me.

I hold PG, but it's not been one of my better long term holdings. It's not a bad company or stock, it's just not great.

[Seppia]

Instead of P&G, take a look at CLX & their dividend growth.

seems like a nice company indeed, thanks for the tip. I have started following them and studying.

Ended up buying some P&G, I just think there's a lot of stuff to like. Great brands in a time whenI believe people tend to underestimate the power of consumer brands, great cash generation, recently re-focused brand portfolio, good dividend (even if the payout ratio seems too high to me), lowest price in 5 years.

I'll take that in this environment.


Side note: anybody read about the last Tesla earnings call?
I find it fascinating that people would have any kind of money in this company, it is really nothing short of amazing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/03/here-ar ... ng-me.html

[bryan]

Side note: anybody read about the last Tesla earnings call?
I find it fascinating that people would have any kind of money in this company, it is really nothing short of amazing.

I've just read about it a bit from Matt Levine and some capitalists on twitter. Was curious to see how it has performed since I got out of it just over a year ago: -4.4% (whereas the S&P is up 14.3%, CARZ up 18.67%).

I went ahead and put an order in for Daimler AG on a whim as I think they may do well in EVs, vans (though it may be some ways out.. maybe would be best to wait a while before buying).

[Seppia]

I just sold a piece of my Royal Dutch holdings (my largest single stock holding at 16% of my total portfolio).
I had added significantly to my position during the oil crash and had it at an average cost of €20,3 (I buy them on Amsterdam).
Just sold about 15% of my holdings at 31€

I would sell more if I only had any idea of where to put the money

[jennypenny]

I would sell more if I only had any idea of where to put the money

Big timers I respect have been encouraging people to get into emerging markets. I'm considering it but they are really volatile and I wonder if I'm getting a little old for that kind of risk-taking. Anyone else watching EMs?

You (@Seppia) have me rethinking my current bench warming strategy. I can't figure out what I would be comfortable investing in though. I've always liked Tyler's Golden Butterfly -- I tried to find a place to add some EM to that. Right now, I'm playing around with an allocation of 30% of LCV (through Wellington), 30% intermediate bonds (Well, PIMCO), and 10% each in REITs, EM, Gold, and LTT.

I know many of you don't like using funds and asset allocations, but I'm trying to rework our financial position so that it's easy for my DH to manage should the need arise, and also make the best use of the funds available to us in various retirement accounts. Using funds/allocation also frees up some mental energy to put towards side hustles and cost-saving projects (I've been slacking off a bit in those departments this past year).

[Seppia]

Anyone else watching EMs?

EMs have been getting 1/2 of my monthly automated investing since January 1st, 2016, and they represent now approximately 10% of my net worth.
I would double the allocation if only there was a way for a European investor to buy EM Value.
Regular EM indexes have too much exposure for my liking to companies priced for perfection such as Tencent or Alibaba

[Seppia]

Also interesting: Campbell soup down 11% at around $34 per share.
Anybody know them?

Seems like there's a lot of pessimism around CPG companies in general, may be a good time to buy a few up?

[jennypenny]

http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/20 ... arply.html

[Seppia]

I had seen that, but the CEO being fired is not exactly a terrible structural issue.
Cambpbell has some great brands, recently acquired some more (Kettle potato chips and Cape Cod potato chips must be huge money makers if handled correctly) and has shaved a good amount of market cap recently.
These are the type of stocks that peek my interest.

I'll keep watching but I'm all ears if anybody has an opinion

[cmonkey]

Large consumer staples are tricky right now because many of them are trying to adapt to changing consumer tastes and competition from smaller companies. The supposed solution is to buy up the competition, which works until tastes change again or consumers learn their favorite brand is now owned by "evil corporation".

That said, SJM and KHC both look pretty good right now and are a couple of the better options.