Investments Trade Log

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
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Seppia
Posts: 2016
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Location: South Florida

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

That’s so cool, huge congrats.
Over the same period, my performance is fairly shitty but I know I could never sleep at night with your kind of position.
Assuming you started with a relatively large NW, is it worth it to keep going?
What I mean by that is that had I had the same returns as you, I’d have hit all my numbers and could comfortably stop working.

ertyu
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Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

@MI what does "levered long vol" look like for you? SPX leap calls or?

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Mister Imperceptible
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Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

@Seppia
I have thought about this, about a year ago I was just shy of 18 years of expenses, but the performance I listed above was not the number for my whole portfolio, only the ~20% that I allocated to this risk barbell last October. What I think is going to get a lot of people in trouble is that, it seems the government is fully committed to keeping asset prices up because it is now a political problem if they fall. There is just too much at stake, and no willingness to take short term pain for longer term gain. And the currency is going to take a beating because of it. Because of it, I feel it is impossible to hit a number and know for sure that “I have made it.” Because we do not know what that number means. My parents are sinking pretty badly right now, they are still in their fifties, and they appear to have very little in the way of a plan. And I have not started a family myself. So I feel the potential burden coming from both directions. I feel there could be a risk in not taking enough risks. There may actually be a risk of not being rich. Taleb wrote “the majority of people who become rich do so out of a long sustained effort to simply not be poor.” I was born “long gamma” and steeped in a Nietzschean Heraclitean “becoming” mindset before I started studying finance and economics, and so a discussion about how we are only going up or only going down gave me the a-ha moment to begin implementing this strategy when I realized we were in the second inning of this and now had an understanding of the instruments (derivatives) I needed to use. I am down about 50% since the end of July, just as I was down 50% in February, it certainly requires fortitude.

@ertyu
Volatility is mostly a function of liquidity at this point. Not 100% of the time(and it has been weird since August, at times VIX is up with spot up or VIX down with SPY down.) Absence of liquidity sends the market downward. So think the opposite direction. That is a negative carry trade. The other side of the trade is positive carry. I do not think it is possible any longer for the SPY to go up without GDX and GDXJ going up more. I am ignorant as to timing, so I hedge both tail risks. It is not out of the realm of possibility that I am wrong. It is possible a huge sigh of relief comes after an uncontested election and people dump protection and dump gold, and I endure more pain. But I want to know, how soon does “trillions” become “quadrillions”? Treasuries are yielding zero. Are rent payments and mortgage payments canceled forever?

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Seppia
Posts: 2016
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Location: South Florida

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

oh ok I did not realize you didn't go all-in with the strategy, but "only" put in a fifth of your assets.

If we had hyperinflation*, stocks would suffer greatly as the multiple would have to come down, but in general owning businesses would probably be a a less risky endeavour than owning debt or cash.

*which still seems to me far from being a sure thing (see: Japan)

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

The World’s Best Bureaucrat: “As Fed chair during the pandemic, Jerome Powell has done something almost unimaginable in Washington: a good job.”

Image








Flows have killed fundamentals

“US Stock Market is now the derivative of the US Options Market

.... a Frankenstein monster patched together by liquidity injections and gamma”


Image







Market Cap to GDP

ertyu
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Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

i saw bill fleckenstein in the comments to chris cole's post; if they get him on the end game i think i might come a little
am a shameless chris cole fanboy

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Lemur
Posts: 1612
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am
Location: USA

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

In a sudden shift, I got some flashbacks of end of February. Decided to make some moves...

1.) Admitting that AMD is going to just defeat INTC long-term. I own both but not impressed with INTC earnings call. Sold INTC for a loss.
2.) Sold all PLUG for a profit.
Net gain above of $1200.

This freed up $25k which I'm just going to split out between MSFT, AMD, and maybe PEP & WMT when funds settle. Also considering a green energy ETF like QLCN.

MSFT is continuing to be a monster:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/microso ... -2021.html

I was almost going to sell half my SQ stake as well but decided instead to just hold for now.... They've a lot of business reasons to keep growing. I don't know how the dollar is going to act but the fact that SQ holds a lot of bitcoin gives me some exposure in a way to the crytocurreny without having to directly invest in it.

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giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

This is the biggest bullish argument for bitcoin. Greyscale and other big players are drinking up all the liquidity and the price can't help but go up. Big players are starting to allocate.

ertyu
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Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Lemur: not if China messes with Taiwan for their semiconductors. They sent some sort of warning this last week. Nothing immediate, but if they do make a move anyone with supply chains in Taiwan will lose to anyone without.

Giskard: what’s your time horizon?

Lucky C
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Lemur wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:47 am
SQ holds a lot of bitcoin
< 1% of their market cap, unless they hold more than the $50 million I read about them buying recently

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@Lucky C

Yep that is right.

This market is shaking me right now admittingly. When I first timed the market in Feb it worked out really well and now I'm starting to see the same trends...I moved out of some riskier / not-growing positions and will move capital into slightly more safer positions.

I'll hold SQ...I consider it my high risk - high reward stock and I was up 300%. But now down a bit on the unrealized gains. I guess I gotta stomach volatility better.

2 things have me not going full-on panic mode:

- COVID vaccine is around the corner or next year.
- Democrat election may stabilize things (I guess this is debatable but Wall Street is sending more cash Biden's way last I read).

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

The low point in September, around 320 for SPY, would look like a significant level for the folks that like to look at such things for guidance. Getting back down to that level soon should not be surprising since SPY is only 2.5% above it now. But bouncing off that level and having a great day afterward could boost investor confidence. Breaking below it would probably hurt investor confidence at a greater magnitude than a boost from bouncing above it.

At this point a clear victor within a day of the election would be a surprise elimination of uncertainty. It could be a positive for the stock market regardless of the winner. A messy election with delayed results is expected, so if that happens I don't think it should have much of an impact on the market. Biden winning is currently expected, so if he does then there shouldn't be much impact.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

SPY 310 is 200 SMA

Germany and France going back into lockdown, just before Q3 GDP gets printed when Trump can use them as propaganda

Everything is deeply fake

classical_Liberal
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Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by classical_Liberal »

...
Last edited by classical_Liberal on Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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giskard
Posts: 323
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

ertyu wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:24 am
Giskard: what’s your time horizon?
I think we could see 50 to 100k in 5 years. I've been accumulating and hodling for the last couple years after selling out in the 2017 bubble. I'll hodl till the next bubble peaks.

Lucky C
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Meaningless but maybe interesting observation of the day:
Vanguard Total World Stock Index (VT) Total Return since inception, 6/25/08 - 10/30/20: +105%
iShares Gold Trust (IAU) Total Return, 6/25/08 - 10/30/20: +105%

Over 12+ years, buy and hold 100% total world stock market (majority is US stocks) or 100% gold would have gotten you to the same point today.

Over the same time period, 6/25/08 to 10/30/20:
United States (SPY) total return: +218%
Japan (EWJ) total return: +39%
United Kingdon (EWU) total return: -7%

(all returns based in USD; your currency may vary)

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

SQ 25% run-up just this week. Not making same mistake twice so I sold near the 52-week high. I'll gladly take nearly 300% gain :) by cost-basis. My best trade ever.

I still like this stock long-term...just need a more reasonable valuation and would like to get back in at some point.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

When Powell "pivoted" on rate hikes at the end of 2018 after the market nearly crashed 20%, rates plummeted. Tech enjoyed huge multiple expansions, and in 2019 gold finally broke thru multi year technical resistance at 1350. With fear of a Blue Wave leading to a sell off at the long end of the Treasury curve, Tech stocks started to crash prior to the election, because Tech stocks are a "long duration trade," essentially, years of future growth are discounted as part of the net present value of the asset because there is no yield available from the risk free asset. This relationship became crystal clear in its all-importance to me this week. As people lost fear of Blue Wave after election with GOP likely regaining control of Senate, and setting up potential fiscal deadlock, rates at the long end collapsed and encouraged a rotation right back into tech.

The paradox? Without massive fiscal stimulus, the stock market will crash. The system is insolvent, with 25% of the SP500 being zombie companies and most players sovereign, corporate, and household unable to generate positive free cash flow, and therefore needs constant liquidity injections. And WITH fiscal stimulus?.....rates at the long end will rise and the "long duration" trade of megacap tech will collapse as the net present values get discounted in the opposite direction. Megacap tech is just a high beta long term US Treasury play.

To prevent a stock market crash, the Fed needs to provide liquidity to the stock market, while starving the masses of stimulus, because fiscal stimulus will blow up the far end of the yield curve. Which is not possible because the masses cannot pay their rent, cannot buy groceries, never mind any discretionary items. In Q1 2021, the moratorium on evictions, foreclosures, student loan payments and installments on other obligations will expire. This last rally propelled by NDX is one final expression of the 38 year trend of long term treasury rates toward the zero bound, coupled with Gen Y and Gen Z FOMO inspired by the Pavlovian response of "buy the dip" with decades of literature brainwashing them into passive indexing.

The collapse will be immense, painful for many, fun to watch (not the pain of the people already suffering, see below chart on those going hungry, but the pain of Jim Cramer and other people like him that deserve to be strapped to a rocket ship and launched into the Sun) and, hopefully, quite profitable for me.


Image

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giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:43 am
To prevent a stock market crash, the Fed needs to provide liquidity to the stock market, while starving the masses of stimulus, because fiscal stimulus will blow up the far end of the yield curve. Which is not possible because the masses cannot pay their rent, cannot buy groceries, never mind any discretionary items. In Q1 2021, the moratorium on evictions, foreclosures, student loan payments and installments on other obligations will expire. This last rally propelled by NDX is one final expression of the 38 year trend of long term treasury rates toward the zero bound, coupled with Gen Y and Gen Z FOMO inspired by the Pavlovian response of "buy the dip" with decades of literature brainwashing them into passive indexing.
So to clarify - you think fiscal support isn't coming and the Fed will be forced to provide liquidity again soon which will inflate the stock bubble further but then we hit a massive wave of deflationary forces in 2021 which nobody will be able to counter and thus we get a big crash?

I hope that's not what happens but it looks like it is what could happen. I am incredulous at the fact that Pelosi decided to play politics all summer instead of taking a stimulus deal when there was a chance to get it done. Biden admin will not be able to pass anything until Feb at the earliest, and even then I think that could take longer than people might believe. The current admin looks likely to pass nothing in the lame duck session as they focus on recount lawsuits instead.

I was thinking we come out of this with inflation, but more and more I think we are going into a deep deflationary recession for several years now and no matter how much liquidity the Fed injects, the fiscal support was too late and millions of people are losing jobs and companies are going out of business.

Are you exiting some of your gold / silver trades? I'm starting to think about it. I have a low cost basis on a lot of it but if it really melts up here in Q4 it might be time to take some off the table. I think it was a great thesis but things just didn't pan out as expected. I just don't see how we don't get massive deflation for several years here in the US the way things are going now politically. Maybe it will be time to get back into PMs in a couple of years.

On a side note I can just see the housing market getting crushed relentlessly too when the banks finally start calling in loans and unemployment is still elevated. Maybe not with government interventions but they can only stop the flood for so long.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

They will continue to tease fiscal stimulus and may pass a skinny one but the preference of the elites is to wash out retail first. Better to pass stimulus with the market down 30-50% than near ATH. I think the people buying SP500 at 3500 expecting SP500 at 4000 after stimulus forget who it is the Fed works for. This has been my thesis since I started buying long dated SPY put options in April and have added to that position the whole summer but even I am surprised by the committed nihilism and delusion of market participants.

I continue to add to the miners and they remain by far my largest position. There is no tolerance for long term deflation. MMT is just QE for the people and is picking up steam (see the board). The alternative is complete collapse of the global financial system. I want the miners to crash 50% with the rest of the market so I can cash my SPY put options and buy even more.

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