Investments Trade Log

[thedollar]

Boeing went from 440 to 113. Pretty interesting but I guess customers will be hard to come around the next few months...

[IlliniDave]

I didn't take action Monday, the first down 7-8% or more day I stayed idle. No reason other than I checked in the morning and much of the opening losses had been pared, then didn't get a chance to check again in the afternoon so I missed it.

For the first time since 2016 some of my new contributions/savings (half) is going to stocks (sorry if I already mentioned that above). Overall I'm holding. What I've decided to do is use SP500 down > 45% YTD to trigger a significant rebalance to bring me up to par with my desired AA. As long as it doesn't get there I'll continue with small incremental bond->stock shifts so my AA doesn't drift too far off target. I don't feel like we've seen the bottom of this.

ETA We're pretty close to where the SP500 was when I began incrementally selling stock exposure. If I can buy most of what I sold back for less than the late 2016 price and we don't see a permanent worldwide tanking, I'll consider it a small victory and it will be easier to wait years for my total balances to recover, if it takes that long.

[Lucky C]

Due to the melt-up before this crash & the extreme speed of the crash, we're still not even close to having a 200-day moving average & 50-day moving average Death Cross.

I imagine this crash will cause many rules-based trend-followers to abandon their discipline if they didn't exit in time, or at least try and modify their rules to react more quickly in the future. This could lead to them underperforming in the future, for example if there are a lot of whipsaws during bull markets. On the other hand, because we may never see this extremely fast melt-up to bear market crash again, other trend-following systems (which have performed poorly here) may outperform in the future, especially if their popularity wanes.

[Bankai]

The trend-following will be fantastic again once the new bull market starts. This meltdown is also a great reminder of why stop loss (or some kind of exit strategy) is so important - something the buy and hold forever/buy quality and never sell etc. group constantly argues against.

[thedollar]

For the log: Did a similar thing today.

S&P500 at around 2,400 now. Bought $26k worth of global equities today. 25 x BA at around $100. Around $3,000 worth of FLSmidth.

Should S&P500 reach 2,000 I'll be mobilizing a large amount of cash. Time horisont: I'm never selling anything.

[Lucky C]

Maybe this time we will actually have two or more days in a row of gains.

Nope!

Looks like we just hit another -7% limit down.

DJIA now negative over Trump's presidency.

At this rate, next month you'll be able to pick up a barrel of oil at Dollar Tree.

[black_son_of_gray]

Woke up to see that TLT had popped up 5% overnight , so I sold half of my shares to lock that in.

I stopped out of the rest of my TLT early this morning before it tanked precipitously. These bond/treasury moves are frankly scary. I'm glad I'm out and I'm staying out.

[Lemur]

Sold my INDA Put again. Started with $2k...now at $3.5k. Made $1.5k since last Friday on just put options. Psychologically, as soon as I see a gain north of 20% , I end up selling and bailing.

Betting tomorrow will be a bump....considering SPY Put if I see that.

[slowtraveler]

Sold my gold today. Kept some Wellesley. Buying indexes mostly and some of the good stuff that's on sale-GOOG, DEO, DIS.

[Lemur]

@slowtraveler

Starting to see some bullish sentiment...so many great deals right now on blue chips. Think i will quit the long put game right now and start hoarding cash for a potential turnaround. Not 100% sure but I definitely wanna keep selling puts while IV is so high.

Who m I kidding though...if I see a pump tomorrow, then Ford puts it is.

[Seppia]

Interesting article on the passive investor behavior.
Turns out I was wrong?
https://ritholtz.com/2020/03/wasnt-pass ... um=twitter

[Lucky C]

2nd day of declining VIX and much lower correlation between assets. For now we are not facing everything falling in price at the same time.

[ToFI]

Few days ago, I had the urge to convert everything to cash but resisted after reviewing my investment plan and stick with it. My stocks still keeping the out performance with SP500. It's 10% above the SP500 Year to date (Since Dec 31, 2019) during the worse panic of last few weeks. It's consistent of the 15% out performance per year from the past 5 years so I'll keep the growth stocks.

When fear is maximized, bottom is near. It could be we are near the bottom.

[wolf]

It could be we are near the bottom.

Or it could be that the first panic is over and now follows the economical downturn, which could result in further financial crashes.

Do you have any indicators, showing that we are near at the bottom?

[ertyu]

There's a good argument to be made that oversold mkt + gvts finally getting fiscal stimulus started + fed opening spigots and singing "whatever it takes -- no, really" might halt the slide in the stock market even if the underlying ffundamentals keep deteriorating.

I'd argue that if the trend does turn, it's way likelier to be a bear rally than a trend flip though.

[ToFI]

@wolf
No indicator. Just feeling. Stock market is forward looking. It looks few months down the road.
As mentioned above, VIX has peaked for now.
Market knows the US case number is increasing exponentially. Market knows it'll peak in a few months due to the exponential growth. That US may experience many deaths like Italy. The market also knows the estimated job loss, estimated fatality rate. Major news are already priced in. Nothing major will come out.

The indiscriminating selling has finally stopped for now. So the difference in individual company earning is reflected on the share price. Now we can have some stocks to go up when the general market is down. Example: Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM). Last 2 weeks, it was dragged down as everything else during the biggest panic. Now it's bouncing back.

[bryan]

Bought to cover my short TSLA yesterday. Disappointed I didn't buy ZM when I first added it to my watchlist a couple weeks ago.. (I already own WORK).

This past week or so I've sold off my TIPS and bought a bit of commodities (base metals and energy stuff). Have started buying some crypto-currencies and precious metal ETFs after hearing about the possibility of the government cutting a $1500+ check to every citizen.

Told myself the last couple days I would sit down and figure out my short/medium/long investing strategy (and how it might differ from plans already in place). Played with the ideas of (1) focusing more on individual stocks (especially ones that seem like they should do well in this next year; or rather the ones that shouldn't do poorly) instead of strictly ETFs and (2) reducing exposure to both main-street bank accounts and also money market accounts (i.e. treasuries) but maintain cash, how? maybe spread evenly across my FDIC accounts.

I also need to start looking at rolling over my traditional IRAs to Roths (so far I have just let them sit as I have been harvesting gains; this year probably not so much).

But the markets are about to close already for the week so I guess I'll put it all off to next week! Interesting today to see so many international stocks up while the US stocks are down.

[Bankai]

@ToFI: why buy on the way down? You're pretty much guaranteed to be in the red immediately. People were buying airlines when they were 20% down as 'bargains' - some of them are now down 65% or more. Re: oversold indicators - it's common in bear markets to have oversold indicators flashing for a long time. I'd wait until bottom is established and recovery starts.

[ToFI]

@Bankai,
I am not buying. I've already fully invested.
It doesn't meant it'll go up from here if it's near bottom. It can flat line for a while. In 2008, market bottomed couple months after VIX peaked. Now VIX looks like has reached peak.

[George the original one]

@Bankai,
I am not buying. I've already fully invested.
It doesn't meant it'll go up from here if it's near bottom. It can flat line for a while. In 2008, market bottomed couple months after VIX peaked. Now VIX looks like has reached peak.

Not staying flat. Market will go down when unemployment numbers are published next week (not sure what happens if they're not published, but as an investor I take it that they're even worse than the Trump administration expects) and then people realize that the stimulus package (and unemployment benefits) don't begin to replace lost wages because "gig economy".

Thinking more long term, at a minimum, we've got 3 weeks before new cases have a chance of stabilizing and that's only if the country is actually practicing their social distancing. Currently, I think we're poised for case explosions in Florida, Texas, & Tennesee. Plus a general round of explosions as a result of people returning from spring break.