Investments Trade Log

[ajcoleman22]

The markets are being flooded with easing/repo/etc. I don't see it helping. National Guard in New York. Yikes.

[jacob]

I'd consider buying once the US goes into lockdown.

[Seppia]

It's incredible how much governments have abdicated responsibility to Central Banks.
I mean did those people study a little macroeconomics?

[ertyu]

@jacob and anyone else are you looking at an absolute level on the spx or would you consider a lockdown enough blood on the streets regardless of absolute level?

Also, do people anticipate another leg down? Cause I rather think I do...

[thedollar]

@Seppia

Probably so politicians have someone else to blame when shit hits the fan.

[Lucky C]

I'll buy once this recession* is over**.

*If we're in a recession
**If I can tell when it's over

[Bankai]

I'd consider buying once the US goes into lockdown.

What about the final leg down few weeks later when everyone realises lockdown doesn't help?

[Lucky C]

Technical analysis: There's lots of these lines going down, wait 'til they don't go down so much.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spx

[jacob]

@Bankai - So far lock down has stopped the spread of the virus in the countries where it has been done (China, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan). I'm counting on that. I'm willing to ride the second leg/if any down. Of course a second consideration is that despite 20% drops, the US market is still very overvalued with very little to buy.

[George the original one]

Of course a second consideration is that despite 20% drops, the US market is still very overvalued with very little to buy.

And that's why I'm still only watching. Michael_0005 thinks the values are okay, but I'm looking for bargains rather than "okay". Unfortunately, I didn't do any selling because "income", which probably alters my perception compared to Michael's.

[ertyu]

Bargain ideas:

tankers
oil and gas producers (not shale)
other energy (I've been pondering uranium participation corp)
airlines and hospitality, but they may have further down to go
also any miners who are leveraged but likely to survive until mmt hits

if anyone actually does the rsrch into particular companies, lmk, i'd be curious

[Bankai]

Oil is likely to go up as it's neither in Russia nor Saudi Arabia interest to depress prices for too long. However, who knows when?

Airlines and hospitality though - I wouldn't touch these sectors with a bargepole. The virus will stick around for months at the very least and if current trends continue, people will basically stop any non-critical travel (or it will be forbidden anyway). As such, profits will turn into (possibly massive) losses and many companies will go straight bust. Especially airlines which rely on up-front payments from customers and often don't have much in terms of cash reserves - consider many are already sending staff on unpaid leave or straight lay off. Even once the virus runs its course, it will take a long time to rebuild customer demand/confidence. Ferry industry might never recover from this.

[George the original one]

Airlines and hospitality though - I wouldn't touch these sectors with a bargepole. The virus will stick around for months at the very least and if current trends continue, people will basically stop any non-critical travel (or it will be forbidden anyway).

Wonder how one invests in the liability claims?

[jacob]

@GTOO - That's what shorting is for. Alternatively, find those companies who don't have them. However, as far as I can tell the market is not trading on fundamentals as of yet. It's just price-blind selling(*) ... which I suppose is just the opposite of what got us up to the records that were set only a couple of weeks ago. This drop is driven differently than the one in December 2018.

(*) Only pattern I see is that the hammered sectors (resorts, cruiselines, ...) come back stronger during the dead cat bounces.

[Lemur]

Had some leftover cash sitting in a Roth account so figured I'd just buy 1 WWE Apr 2020 30.000 put. Managed to get in at $1.15.

Reasoning for put: The company recently got involved in class action lawsuit...Coronavirus may cause cancelled wrestling events...and CEO is making desperate moves for viewership like signing Rob Gronkowski.

[classical_Liberal]

Even once the virus runs its course, it will take a long time to rebuild customer demand/confidence.

I disagree. If the US ends up in a lockdown type scenerio, I see a quick rebound in earnings due to built up demand post crisis. Although some industries may suffer for a period of time, I see both Boomers and Millennials, from a general behavioral economic standpoint, going YOLO. This has been their MO through most of their lives. I see a crisis with temporary loss of consumer freedoms, and maybe some personal losses, only exacerbating this tendency.

[Bankai]

I was talking specifically about airlines/hospitality. Unlikely they'll reach full capacity within days after lockdown is lifted - it will return gradually as people book holiday weeks/months in advance.

[classical_Liberal]

@Bankai
Sorry for misunderstanding. I agree with that assessment.
___

Looks like futures trading is already getting close to breaker limits again tonight.

I'm sticking with my S&P @2600 plan, which may occur tomorrow if futures are any indication. I'm currently in the working phase of my semi-RE and have about 8K of monthly net income for the next 2.5 months. I'll DCA half that into my preferred AA as a rebalance, the other half is required for annual cash flow needs. Once the income stops I'll move the same amount, 4K (about 1.2% net worth) each month for as long as S&P stays at or below desired levels. At that rate I'd still have 14 more months before I get to my preferred "defensive" cash allocation level(15-20% NW), even without additional income.

I realize my updates may feel boring to the traders or very active investors on this thread. I'm just trying to show my thinking as a less sophisticated indexer, as I know there are a few of us here. Based on yield and other asset pricing I think equities are close to the only game in town for the medium term (1-5 years), at these price points.

[Jin+Guice]

This is the first major action since I started investing in 2015. I sold everything in early 2019 and have been sitting in cash equivalents since. I'm planning on buying back into equities and moving towards either a PP or Golden Butterfly as things become cheap. My main goal right now is wealth preservation while I learn about investing, but I didn't want to blindly change strategies or buy while things were (in my admittedly naive opinion) massively over-valued.

No one thinks the massive shutdown will throw us into a recession that outlasts the virus? We've been back into asshattery for several years now, I don't think liquidity is as fucked as it was in 2008, but I still think there will be some cascading and recovery will be slow. Everyone is trying to buy the dip now, but how will they feel after 2-3 months of straight losses? I am just basing this on a hunch.

[black_son_of_gray]

I don't think liquidity is as fucked as it was in 2008

Depends on what happens with corporate bonds. Different from 2008, but potentially very destructive.