Can I retire with 4 children?

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C40
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by C40 »

you're like the guy from Office Space. Someone asked him what he would do ~'if he had a million dollars'. And he said "nothing... I would do literally nothing". Except you really do mean literally nothing. You know, in a sense.

IlliniDave
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by IlliniDave »

I probably wouldn't do it yet, but then again I'm not the most courageous guy around.

Right now medical expenses are about 45% of your total spending. If it's all premiums then with Medicaid that should go to ~0 which IMO dramatically changes the situation (withdrawal rate under 2%). You said you expect them to go down, but didn't indicate how much.

As a side note, going on Medicaid (or being heavily subsidized in ACA) would be a hangup for me. Letting all my neighbors get up and go to work every day to pay my family's medical bills while I'm perfectly capable of paying them myself (either by working or because I'm high net worth) would stress me. If you're able to game the system without self-imposed consequence, good for you! It's not much different philosophically than Medicare.

I don't think working a few more years changes your odds of having to go back to work some day because of money.

Biggest "danger" I see is, as the decades go by, just changing as a person in terms of tastes and desires in such a way as would tend to increase spending.

Another thing to consider is that the world has changed a lot in the last 1.25 years, at least for people in my situation. I'm pulling the plug in under 2 mos (still freaks me out to "say that out loud"). Before I even gave formal notice I was asked to try working part-time, 100% remote, for a while before retiring. The odds that would have happened in 2019 are identically zero. If for whatever reason you have some uncertainty, possibly (someone else mentioned this I believe) you could transition to remote/part-time to test drive some of the changes in routine.

Good luck!

M
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by M »

@scott 2
Thank you for the input. Very thought provoking. I will address the points one by one.
1. So far we have been fortunate to have no medical issues. We all see the doctor once a year for checkups and have dental cleanings and that is it. Of course this could change in the future so it is a risk factor. All of the 18k last year was spent on premiums (about 14k) and birth of child (about 4k). This medical cost would be zero on medicaid.
2. In my state medicaid covers basic dental services including cleanings, cavity filling, tooth removal, etc. I have confirmed my current dental provider accepts medicaid so nothing would change...unless we need some extensive work done. Hopefully the $18,000 dollars in the budget for healthcare will cover this potential...hmm..
3. My kids are spoiled by their grandparents on both sides already...I say no all the time and am fine saying no. Most of the kids I know who grew up spoiled wound up entitled. Some of them wound up in jail. I am actually trying not to spoil them in an effort to build good character and gratitude for what they have.
4. Yes, I anticipate taking on more chores, especially cleaning.
5. I grew up in a small town. My wife grew up in the same small town. My family and her family still live in the same small town. She never wants to leave this same small town. I feel like there is a country song here somewhere.

I will probably start off the retirement by downsizing the career at some point or taking a sabbatical. Sounds like a great idea in theory, in practice finding a company to go along with it may be hard to do. I may just wind up taking a long break between jobs at first.

I would love to have 1.5 million also...maybe I should work a few more years.

Crusader
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by Crusader »

Just thinking aloud... since you have FU money, maybe you can afford to be more arrogant and risky with your job/jobs. Ask for a 3 month leave of absence each year. Quit and ask to work as a contractor part time or on a seasonal basis. Quit and look for another job in a stress free environment if they don't agree to your terms, etc...

M
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by M »

@C40 Haha yeah - I am totally that guy.

@crusader - Yeah I will certainly be doing this moving forward. I will start by not stressing out over deadlines at work and instead work at my leisure while posting on ERE forums. :D

@IlliniDave - The medical expenses are about 14k in premiums, plus 4k last year for birth of child. We are done having children, and none of us have any form of medical issues thankfully. Since medicaid includes dental in my state, I expect this to drop to approximately zero (hopefully). This puts our withdrawal rate at about 2% moving forward....

As far as morality is concerned - I do not believe it is morale for me to be on Medicaid while my neighbors work to pay for it. However, I have justified it in my mind so I may sleep better at night with the following train of flawed logic and reasoning.

There are a lot of immoral things that happen in the world, especially in the American healthcare system. I largely believe the American healthcare system itself is so immoral and messed up it can almost be thought of as a corrupt system. There is a mind boggling amount of laws and regulations, people suing everyone for malpractice, laws requiring hospitals to treat people who never pay anyway, no incentive for preventative care or exercise and nutrition which would solve a lot of health issues in this country, spreading risk around so that healthy people who eat right are paying for unhealthy drug addicts who spend all day drinking and getting high, hiding prices from customers before treatment so there is no incentive (or ability) to shop around, prescription drug companies taking advantage of cancer patients, a lot of people never paying their medical bills anyway, etc.

I have watched people in my personal life rack up literally millions of dollars in medical bills that they never pay, only to continue to spend their money on cigarettes and booze. Meanwhile I run every other day, drink green smoothies and eat beans and nuts and my family has no medical issues to speak of (currently) and have paid probably around a quarter million dollars into the system with virtually no benefit outside of child births. Of course - there are some people who have medical issues despite exercising and having healthy diets, so it is not all about lack of personal responsibility.

Morality itself seems to be relative at times. Even looking at ERE - Is it immoral to invest in McDonald's so much that you can live off the dividends aka part of the profit from the working class so you can live a life of leisure? This is not considered immoral on an ERE forum. However, on a forum of fast food workers trying to increase their wages, the idea that someone is at the top siphoning off part of the profits and that is why they can't make more money is extremely immoral. They may even have some choices words for those people...or actions they would like to take against those horrible people.

At the end of the day the ACA was written by lawmakers who were voted on by the people to represent them and their interests. They wrote it to be income based, NOT asset based, on purpose so as not to bankrupt everyone in the country with medical bills (hence the name of the bill - Affordable Care). Since someone's income largely drives their lifestyle, this means effectively anyone with a low income lifestyle qualifies for free medical care, regardless of their assets or other status (intelligence, skills, etc). If the people (who are paying for this bill...) did not want this upon reading the bill, they would have voted differently in 2012. But they didn't. Even in 2016 when the people did vote differently, there were not enough people who voted differently to repeal the bill. And in 2020 people voted for the party that plans on upholding this bill again. Ergo this is what the collective will of the people want, who are also collectively paying for, so it is perfectly morale.

If I was holding a sign on the side of the road that read "starving millionaire" and someone willingly gave me a fish sandwich, is this morale? The will of the people collectively voted for the bill, even after knowing that it was income based. Who am I to deny my neighbor's right to vote to pay for my free healthcare? This is what the people wanted.

Jiimmy
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by Jiimmy »

I don't understand the hesitant answers you're getting. I say go for it. There's no such thing as 100% safety, but having 50x ER expenses invested is pretty close.

In the future, if there's a desire to inflate your lifestyle or buy a million dollar home then you can reasses, and weigh those wants against the idea of returning to work. It's also very likely you'll earn some money at some point without even trying, just by doing something you enjoy, a hobby, etc.

On the morality of Medicaid, to me it's no different than someone making strategically sized Roth conversions to maximize the ACA subsidy. You're playing by the rules, this morality talk is nonsense.

ertyu
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by ertyu »

The part I personally think isn't moral is for you to limit the personal development of your children just because you've chosen to limit your own by not engaging with the humanities or social sciences. To have the ability to give your children the opportunity to be bigger people but choose to deliberately withold it from them just because you didn't have it doesn't sit well with my personal value system.

I am not saying this to start an argument on any level -- I probably will not change your mind, you will not change mine, and it's your life and ultimately you're the boss of it. You're free, and entitled, to live it according to your own value system. It's just sad to see it make the world smaller for someone else.

M
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by M »

@ertyu

I'm actually not sure what you mean by this...not engaging with humanities or social sciences? I know a lot of people who partied for four years in school while attempting to get a degree in religous studies, or art, or political science, or history. In my personal experience, in every case this did not make them better or bigger people, and they wound up either dropping out or graduating and going right back to the low income job they had before. Only this time they had 50k-100k in student loans which many of them are still paying off today. In every case even they admit their mistake. I have several examples of this happening and would prefer that my children not suffer a similar sort of fate.

Maybe it is different in a big city, but around here going to college for four years or more for a useless degree is the same as attending an extremely expensive party. It is a fun experience at the time, but also takes years for them to sober up afterwards and certainly does not make them a better person, except perhaps in their ability to consume alcohol. Some of them, even in their thirties, still cannot take care of themselves or even live indepent without help from their mom. It is a sad state of affairs. Maybe this was different years ago, or in a big city, I don't know. But this has been my experience.

M
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by M »

@Jiimmy - Thanks for the vote of confidence. :)

@ertyu - It occurs to me, maybe my post was too harsh. I don't mean to start an argument either. My point of view of the matter would be drastically different if this were the 1970's, when college was cheap and decent jobs could be had with any college degree. My point of view would also be very different if I lived in a different country, where college is free, or even if they make college free in America (distant laughter).

In today's America though, at least where I live, it seems immoral for me to guide my kids down that path even. Sure - one can buy books, watch documentaries, and learn about things outside of school, but in general if someone is going to pay $100,000 dollars for something and 4+ years of their life, there ought to be some thinking about the ramifications of this sort of decision in terms of future happiness and success, cost of time and money, etc. Maybe I do not fully understand your point of view. Could you elaborate?

RealPerson
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by RealPerson »

Congrats of being in such a terrific financial situation.

Besides the questions mentioned by others I see 4 areas to put a question mark.

1) The size and age of your family. I see every additional person as another degree of freedom. Not all expenses are predictable or controllable. The 4 young people in your family could incur expenses that can fall in that category. This is a potential liability for many years to come.

2) Medicaid. You are counting on a government program for decades to come. There will presumably always be some type of government assistance for healthcare. But what if the program becomes tested for assets and not just income? Or the program becomes so bad that it is hard to find a doctor willing to take the plan as payment? You are putting a lot of faith in a government program.

3) Your area of work requires being up to date in order to be employable. If you discover in 2 decades that you need additional income, it may be very difficult to jump back into the work force.

4). Inflation. The bulk of your assets are stock market based. The market has historically not been the greatest place for assets in times of high inflation. There are reasons to suggest that (hyper?)inflation may be coming. Your investment strategy may need retooling in order to accommodate a period of inflation.

Your way of thinking about education is spot on. There is so much expensive BS out there, it would be ridiculous if it was not so sad. Learning a trade is very practical. And going to a cheap college for 2 years and pulling in the kind of salary you are getting? Excellent!

I have no problems with the morality of the Medicaid/ACA rules and how you take advantage of them, but I would disagree with the way you describe how laws come into being. Legislators for the most part do not vote for the interests of the people who elect them. If they did, we would have very different laws. Lawmakers vote for the interests of the wealthy donors who bankroll their campaign. I do not care about the morality issues because so many immoral things are being done to benefit the wealthy and powerful at the expense of the masses.

You have made very smart financial decisions. Go for it! Well done!

Scott 2
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by Scott 2 »

The easiest place to find part time employment may be your current employer. It's not an uncommon offer, especially if a good employee is leaving to spend more time with family.

The core question is - Are you (and your wife!) comfortable retiring within the limits of your current net worth? Doing the math is straight forward.

I think the life philosophy questions are a distraction, expressions of what others hold important. They are getting at the same thing - will this amount of money comfortably cover your known unknowns and unknown unknowns? The time horizon for a healthy couple at 35 is 60+ years. With 6 people in the mix, uncertainty is high. People change.


When preparing for my retirement, one of the most useful things I did was to plan my withdrawal strategy. How do I determine my safe withdrawal rate? What accounts do I take the money from, each year? What does my portfolio look like over time? What accounts do I hold that portfolio in? What's my plan for the infirm years at end of life? How do I manage my lifetime tax strategy? Etc.

I think that would offer a lot of value now, regardless of your next step. With a solid plan, it may be obvious if you are ready to execute. It's a meaty textbook, but I took a lot from McClung's Living Off Your Money:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11812


One thought about Medicaid - understand the estate recovery obligation incurred, using it from 55-65. There's a chance any financial legacy is wiped out:

https://www.medicaid.gov/medicaid/eligi ... index.html

M
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by M »

@RealPerson

Wow you think about things almost exactly how I think about them. Your points are almost the exact major concerns I have about it as well.

For inflation - this is why I have so much assets tied up in REITs with no cash or bonds (outside of IBonds, which are presumably inflation adjusted). I am also strongly considering buying a small farm as my next investment if I continue working.

I don't really like the idea of buying gold to protect against inflation, because you are basically banking on the idea that society will continue to collectively value it more than the current inflation rate in the future. It has been so long that gold has been used as a unit of currency I'm not sure if I can bank on this idea personally. I would probably buy freeze dried food and more guns before I bought gold. I'm not sure what else to buy, really, to protect against this outside of farmland, commodities, and rental property. I suppose I can buy some gran silos...

For medicaid - the idea of this going away or becoming asset based is a very real risk. I'm not really banking on the idea that this will always be around in it's current form. What I am banking on is:

A.) There will be some form of healthcare for low income Americans available that I can use OR
B.) $18,000 /year is enough to cover my families healthcare needs and the 4% rule continues to hold (hard to say...)

I am basically gambling that one of these two things are going to be true, and if I'm wrong then the consequence is that either myself (or my wife if I'm disabled) gets a job - which would put me in the scenario I'm already in. I've been working non stop for nearly 20 years, so even if I just take a break for a while then have to go back for health insurance, this seems like a better outcome than just working forever out of fear that I might potentially run out of money to afford healthcare someday.

Jiimmy
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by Jiimmy »

M wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:10 am
(...)if I'm wrong then the consequence is that either myself (or my wife if I'm disabled) gets a job - which would put me in the scenario I'm already in. I've been working non stop for nearly 20 years, so even if I just take a break for a while then have to go back for health insurance, this seems like a better outcome than just working forever out of fear that I might potentially run out of money to afford healthcare someday.
Love your point of view here.

You have enormous safety margin in your plan, imo.

Relevant MMM post that came to mind: https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2011/10 ... ty-margin/

Regarding hyperinflation and societal collapse, you're probably screwed whether you have 1.1 million or 11.1 million. If you fret about those things you'll never be free.

M
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by M »

@scott 2

Good thoughts. For my asset withdrawal strategy, the current plan is thus. I get about 18k /year in dividends from the taxable account currently (average about a 3% yield). This is from a collection of reits, stock index funds, and dividend paying individual stocks. This covers most of the living expenses of 22k. This will be supplemented by 30k in ibonds until the ibonds are depleted (this should take about 7 years). In this way I hope to avoid most of the sequence of return risks. The 401k and IRA and HSA accounts will not be touched.

After this I will start selling off stocks every year from the taxable account to fund the IBonds to make up the difference between our expenses and dividend income.

If the current ACA and income brackets hold, if the 4% rule holds true, by the time I am 52 I will have no dependents for tax purposes. I will no longer qualify for medicaid and instead will be on an ACA insurance plan because I will make too much money. I could actually hit this a lot sooner if needed simply by creating income from roth ira conversions at some point. This is the benefit of having half the assets in taxable accounts and half in pre-tax accounts.

If the 4% rule holds true then most of the assets in my 401k and IRA and HSAs I won't even have to touch. Ever. If the 4% rule fails or if Medicaid goes away I will have to start doing roth conversions earlier using the 5 year rule in order to pay for medical insurance/care.

If I wake up 30 years from now and find that I'm 65 years old and have no money left I will do what for a surprisingly large number of Americans already do and sign up for social security (which I paid into for about 20 years) and live off of that.

If even social security is gone by then I will sell my house and physical assets and buy a bus ticket to California and live out my days getting drunk on the beach begging for money.

If no one gives me money in California then..I don't know...I might get a job. *shudders*

Scott 2
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by Scott 2 »

Your post reads like someone ready to take the next steps towards retirement. What's stopping you?

chenda
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by chenda »

I think you can retire with a lot of safety margin, and I am actually a bit surprised by some of the cautious advice above (I don't mean that as a criticism of anyone, just an observation)

However, maybe you could negotiate a sabbatical or period of unpaid leave to try out the lifestyle first and see if it works for you ? This might help to overcome some of the psychological barriers or at least decide if full retirement is for you or whether you want to delay retirement or do some kind of semi-retirement first.

white belt
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by white belt »

M wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:49 pm
What are my plans for retirement? I will sit in a dark room, with ear plugs in, with my eyes closed for several hours a day. I had a dream 20 years ago of being a buddhist monk and living in a monastary, but the rules seemed obsessive, so I did not pursue this traditional path. I am basically planning on being a stay at home monk but without the title and 250+ rules to follow. I enjoy the simple life and pursuing inner goals of inner peace and happiness.
Do you have a daily meditation practice now? Have you ever done any meditation retreats? Is there a local Buddhist or meditation center?

I ask because I know many people who think they want to meditate and search for enlightenment but then realize it’s not for them after engaging with it extensively. Also all of those rules that you don’t like about a monastery are there for a reason because they enable one the focus necessary to destroy the ego. Meditation is just one part of the Buddhist tradition, but other parts like studying with a master, engaging with koans, engaging with community, etc are equally as important. Buddhism isn’t a buffet where you get to pick and choose what you want because it’s likely the things that you are resisting are exactly what you need for growth. Lengthy meditation isn’t like relaxing on the beach, it is more like struggling to push a stone up a hill only for it to roll down each day.

What happens if 6 months down the line you find yourself bored, your spouse and kids are irritated, and you start questioning all your dreams and life aspirations? I’m not saying this will happen because I don’t know you, but it’s a useful thought experiment. You can read many accounts of people who early retired and then regretted it and ended up back at work.

And since this is the ERE forums and not the MMM forums, I’d be remiss to ask you if you have read the Wheaton Level threads. What are your other forms of capital besides financial?

M
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by M »

@scott 2 - While my post may sound very certain, I am actually very cautious by nature. I am primarily still working because I'm still not sure of the plan, especially in regards to the American healthcare system, hence why I made this post, so that other people can tell me what I might be missing myself or tell me it is most likely ok. I have browsed this forum for over a decade now, and the people here seem to be the most intelligent people out of any forum I have been to.

@chenda - I tried this once when I quit my last job. Turned in my two weeks notice with the intention of taking off a few months. Made the mistake of telling a recruiter. He insisted on bringing me in somewhere for an interview. I wound up accepting a new job and started the following Monday and only got the weekend off. But yes, this is a good idea, I just need to learn how to tell people no, lol.

@white belt - I do not currently have a meditation practice...There is a backstory here that started all of this, which I'm not sure if I should get into or not as it either sounds like I'm clinically insane or some sort of "enlightened" being, neither of which I think (hope?) are true.

As a teenager I was very curious about life but thought most spiritual things were hogwash and there was no inherit meaning to life. I ran across a spiritual text book randomly at a bookstore and started practicing meditation and reading various "spiritual" books. New age, Buddhist, etc. Mostly David Hawkins books, ACIM, Buddhism, "Parapsychology" studies, etc. I had a lot of experiences that validated a lot of things, lucid dreaming, astral projection, mind reading (or rather, I should say, a very high probability that mind reading occurs often enough to be extremely statistically significant)...after extensive mental surrender and surrendering to "God" as it were, I entered a state of constant euphoria where it felt like God was everywhere and everything was beautiful. My perception of time would randomly slow down into a sort of still eternity and I would feel this energy going up my back. The experience seemed similar to how some people describe being on drugs...except I wasn't on drugs.

Eventually this led to the inner mental chatter, or "default state" increasingly becoming silent as all I could do was constantly be in awe of the beauty and life that was around me. This went on for several weeks. The mind grew more and more quiet and my sense of self slowly disappeared into the background. Eventually, out of nowhere there was an enlightenment experience where "I" could no longer think. The thoughts were thought but immediately destroyed before they could fully reach awareness. I felt myself dying. Not physically dying, but it felt like the core essence of who I was was dying. It was the most terrifying thing I ever experienced in my life and I lost consciousness. When I became aware again I was drenched in a cold sweat and had deep red marks on the sides of my arms from where it looked like I was holding myself tightly.

I stopped meditating and left it all behind to return to the real world. I vowed I would return to the practice someday to better understand what sort of mental issue had occurred in my brain to cause that sort of thing to happen. My understanding based on the textbooks is that this is what enlightenment is, but that "I" failed to allow the final surrender to take place of literally letting myself die.

My teenage self would read these words and say they are all hogwash and there is yet another delusional guy on the internet spewing hogwash again. And I'm sure a lot of people will, logically, read this and think the same thing. I would not blame anyone. In fact, even my analytical brain says this is all hogwash as it does not match up with practical experience or common sense. But my personal experience says that enlightenment is real, and I intend to pursue it even if it means my own "ego" death this time.

It's easier just to tell people I intend to sit in the closet with my eyes closed. :)

M
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by M »

@white belt - Other forms of capital.

Social capital:
I have a very supportive spouse I have been with for over half my life. My dad lives a mile away. My aunt and uncle live 2 miles away. My mother in law lives 3 miles away. My brother in law lives 4 miles away. My brother lives 12 miles away. My sister lives 15 miles away. Another sister lives 20 miles away. Another brother lives 120 miles away. There are a lot of other family members close by but you get the idea. I have some friends that I see on occasion (admittingly it has been a while with the pandemic and baby...I need to get out more).

I also have a lot of skills outside of software development including plumbing, electrical, roofing, flooring, drywall, painting, carpentry, car mechanical work, furniture building, etc. I'm not a professional in any of these areas but I have gutted and fixed up a few foreclosed houses in my day and still have all of the tools needed to do these jobs.

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Alphaville
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Re: Can I retire with 4 children?

Post by Alphaville »

i dont know about other traditions, but zen monks and priests can marry, have kids, hold jobs etc. so there is no need to give it all up terminally and at once.

also, in my ignorant opinion, the wheaton level discussion can be a bit of an exercise in name-making plus some speculation about things unknown like emergent properties of future systems. which may or may not be useful to you. maybe it's helpful, maybe it's a distraction. ymmv.

much more essential though would be to read and understand and put into practice the "strategy, tactics, and guiding principles" and "a renaissance lifestyle" parts of the book. to put it in simplistic terms, it's the implementation of those strategies what allows you to forego the need for (so much) money. how far you go with those implementations is up to you.

the "levels" idea is that new effects are generated as you deepen your practice, and some people like to assign numbers to that and work on theories. but you can also do it empirically.

the renaissance lifestyle chapter is more of an example of implementations, and an analysis of those implementations. not everything might be applicable to you due to different conditions, situations, values, etc. but the strategy part is the real core of the book from which you can generate your own custom solutions if you choose to do so.

last, because im a humanities person who enjoys "the seventh art," maybe check out the movie "captain fantastic" and see if you or your wife or kids find any of that lifestyle appealing or inspirational. my wife and i loved it... though some people get spooked by it. it's just fiction, of course...

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