Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
Qazwer
Posts: 146
Joined: Thu May 16, 2019 6:51 pm

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by Qazwer »

@7w5
The pluses and minuses of being on the side of the middle class masses. A change in ownership rights in equities impact a lot of people who vote. Not saying not done. Not saying cannot be hidden etc etc
But there is a qualitative and quantitative difference in owning an individual house in the pathway of a new highway whether local or intergalactic (even if listed in another office that you should have known about)

User avatar
Alphaville
Posts: 3109
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:50 am
Location: Quarantined

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by Alphaville »

Qazwer wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:34 pm
I really like argumenta ad paranoia
ha ha, i don't--i made up the label in mockery. i like them in fiction though.

i don't mean that terrible things can't happen--of course they can, and they will.

the problem of course is that just because someone conjures up some horrible scenario they become 100% convinced it is that way things will happen and no other. "but i am so afraid of it, therefore it must be true."
Qazwer wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:34 pm
The problem is signal to noise. Some form of most dystopias I can think of have happened in some point in history. You got the Buffy song Once More with Feeling with that great riff on evil bunnies . You laugh until you think about the history of rabbits and Australia
hahaha-- yeah. but this is actually the difficulty of making predictions based on the past: you end up building the maginot line.

i'm not saying attempts at prediction are useless btw. of course, the closer the future the better the prediction.

the problem is when predictions become articles of faith--most especially in the argumentum ad paranoia case when there is no actual evidence or reason for the prediction, only deep suspicion that my neighbors all have been replaced by androids therefore it is certain that it happened. iow, taking metaphors first literally, and then faithfully.

Hristo Botev
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:42 am

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by Hristo Botev »

Lest anyone get the wrong idea about this book, it's really not a collapsist, SHTF prep book (I just read it that way, b/c I tend to read most everything that way these days). The book is about how to preserve family "wealth" (which, to be fair, is given a pretty broad definition) across multiple generations, with an eye towards history knowing that SH(s)TF in a whole lot of ways, including of course external factors like wars and coups and pandemics and market mismanagements at the federal level, but also (and more likely) internally, within the family itself and the various interlopers who pop up when there is money around. For example, the book of course looks at Beretta firearms, which has been a family business since before Italy was its own country, apparently. I'm not putting this book out there as some sort of ERE book. BUT, for someone with my own motivations--who is not so interested in attaining FI so that I don't have to work anymore and can just live off of (maybe) the 4% rule, with an aim towards figuring out just how much I need to have and how much I need to spend to make sure that I don't run out before (and to make sure that I don't leave too much behind when) I die--I liked the book's focus on seeing "wealth" as something that we should build up and then act as caretakers for so that we can pass it on to the next generation, teaching that generation to do the same thing, all in the name of creating some stability and security (and resiliency). To the extent that I'm focused on trying to spend less and save more, that's why (well, also throw in a growing distaste for wastefulness in its various forms).

Qazwer
Posts: 146
Joined: Thu May 16, 2019 6:51 pm

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by Qazwer »

I like the construct of arguments as paranoia meaning it as a logical fallacy.
I think I helped shift the wealth discussion to that of SHTF but there are a lot of parallels. You are making guesses to build a resilient system years in the future (for family wealth preservation by definition even after you die)
So you have to guess what matters (problem 1)
You have to guess what can help the situation in the future dealing with whatever the key issue will be (problem 2)

Shirt tail to shirt tail in 3 is the usual for good reason that even if you get one and two correct that you need someway to enforce it

I am left with vague hand wave things like have extra education. Picking a location has the same issue for both wealth management (real estate investment with a locked in trust) as for surviving either (SHTF) the zombie hordes or the expansion during the Meiji Restoration.

I should not dismiss the SHTF literature out of hand but I keep going back to insurance is expensive and any insurance for one problem mean less emphasis on another.

Wealth management as in the OP of go rural and go international just seems so close to SHTF insurance method of doing the same

Western Red Cedar
Posts: 303
Joined: Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:15 pm

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by Western Red Cedar »

This podcast features Doug Nordman, JL Collins and his wife discussing FI, wealth and teaching your kids about these concepts. It's been a few years since I listened to it, but probably germane to the discussion.

https://diversefi.com/2018/11/26/whats- ... episode-5/

@HB - I'm always surprised at the ease with which people invest in real estate internationally. Those investments are very shaky without a strong rule of law.
Last edited by Western Red Cedar on Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Alphaville
Posts: 3109
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:50 am
Location: Quarantined

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by Alphaville »

i wikipediad the beretta family and looks like they were in the thick of the endless wars in italy during the renaissance and beyond. turns out the guild system alone kept the secrets in the family for nearly 300 years, until napoleon ended the guild system--so that was quite a headstart in an exploding (literally) industry. good timing. nail maker guild members probably had to go elsewhere.

nevertheless the berettas got nothing on the hoshi family, in business for 1300 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hōshi_Ryokan 🤯

and these businesses all have a little group going, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henokiens

i don't know what to think of this. it looks attractive because of the greener grass effect and i'm a nomad. and while my brother copied my dad's profession i went as far from it as i could. i'm from the eccentric side of the gene pool. ultimately i guess for me it sounds a bit... confining.

balzac wrote (where?) that behind every great fortune lies a great crime. why conscript future generations into complicity?

i think i may be closer to philip larkin when it comes to matters of dynastic succession :lol:

and yes i think the freedom to choose is the better gift for future generations because the future does not belong to me, it belongs to them. i would not burden them with excessive family obligations.

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 13176
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by jacob »

Italy: https://qz.com/694340/the-richest-famil ... -florence/
England: https://qz.com/301150/this-is-the-proof ... 800-years/
China: https://qz.com/314720/heres-the-surpris ... in-common/

There might not be a solution found within a single family. Perhaps you need enough families for a class system to develop. https://www.amazon.com/Class-Through-Am ... 0671792253 has been criticized left and right but it's undeniable that people have different priorities and that different priorities have different outcomes. In particular, focus on the attitude/culture associated with wealth---what gets it and mostly keeps it---rather than the money or the Argentinian farm. Those are just symptoms.

User avatar
Ego
Posts: 5131
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by Ego »

Hristo Botev wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:30 am
Interesting that I recently saw on the author's diary that his ranch in Argentina may very well get taken over by "originarios" in the very near future (https://www.rogueeconomics.com/bill-bon ... ui-valley/).
We saw something similar happen in Mexico during the Zapatista revolt. While approaching this ranch some kids threw stones at our van. Not long after, the ranch was invaded and the American owners evicted. As far as I know, the land is still in the hands of those who took it.

User avatar
Alphaville
Posts: 3109
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:50 am
Location: Quarantined

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by Alphaville »

Ego wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:54 pm
We saw something similar happen in Mexico during the Zapatista revolt. While approaching this ranch some kids threw stones at our van. Not long after, the ranch was invaded and the American owners evicted. As far as I know, the land is still in the hands of those who took it.
damn

https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/idaho ... =176556685

but yeah the zapatistas wanted to control their territory and so now they do

User avatar
Alphaville
Posts: 3109
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:50 am
Location: Quarantined

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by Alphaville »

chenda wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:42 pm
Though Argentina might have be a climate refuge in a warming world. Just needs a Lee Kuan Yew type to whip the country into shape then it might thrive again.
argentina's latest attempt at "strong government" was a genocidal operation that killed and "disappeared" tens of thousands of people, incarcerated and tortured hundreds of thousands, kidnapped children, trucked with nazis and narco-lords, and started a war with england to distract from their own problems. not exactly a model of progress for the world...

before that, peronismo itself was an attempt to reconcile different sectors of society, but it failed and disintegrated. the 70s were particularly bad, with guerrillas and a civil war brewing, which is why the military took over and amped the massacres.

chenda
Posts: 1710
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm
Location: Nether Wallop

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by chenda »

@alphaville yes successful, benevolent-ish strongman like Mr Lee are very rare breed unfortunately.

Britain did a great favour to Argentina 1982 by indirectly liberating them from the fascist tyranny. The discredited regime finally collapsed and some of the generals have since been brought to justice. Not that they are ever likely to thank us for it.

There is an old unkind joke about Brazil but might just as well apply to Argentina. 'It's the country of the future, and always will be...'

On other hand, I loved travelling in South America. It's vibrant, diverse and a bit edgy, like Europe's wild love child. Singapore, for all it's wealth, stability and zero crime is a little bit dull at times...

Hristo Botev
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:42 am

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by Hristo Botev »

If history is any guide, I suspect it's probably impossible to have both "vibrant, diverse and a bit edgy" AND ALSO "wealth, stability and zero crime." Kind of like how urban gentrifiers inevitably suck out all the stuff that attracted them to a neighborhood in the first place.

Not really related, but yesterday's Granola Shotgun blogpost made me laugh, basically thanking Texas for helping return at least some sanity to the San Fransisco real estate market: https://www.granolashotgun.com/granolas ... tu2jc6ga2t

User avatar
Alphaville
Posts: 3109
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:50 am
Location: Quarantined

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by Alphaville »

chenda wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:16 am
@alphaville yes successful, benevolent-ish strongman like Mr Lee are very rare breed unfortunately.

Britain did a great favour to Argentina 1982 by indirectly liberating them from the fascist tyranny. The discredited regime finally collapsed and some of the generals have since been brought to justice. Not that they are ever likely to thank us for it.

There is an old unkind joke about Brazil but might just as well apply to Argentina. 'It's the country of the future, and always will be...'

On other hand, I loved travelling in South America. It's vibrant, diverse and a bit edgy, like Europe's wild love child. Singapore, for all it's wealth, stability and zero crime is a little bit dull at times...
there is also the issue of scale: easier to tame a city state than a vast expanse of land with a multiplicity of cultures and local economies.

the military was always going to fall eventually. historically they've been transitional arrangements to "restore order." they wanted to suppress communists and went overboard with it.

argentina's history with the uk is a long and convoluted one, including colonial invasions, support for revolutions, immigration, railroad development...which i don't understand well. football of course. it's really a strange relationship, from the 1806 invasion of buenos aires to la mano de dios and beyond :lol:

haaaahaaaa the country if the future... yeah.

south america likes to party of course.

chenda
Posts: 1710
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm
Location: Nether Wallop

Re: Family Fortunes: How to Build Wealth and Hold on to It for 100 Years; Bill Bonner

Post by chenda »

Hristo Botev wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:46 am
If history is any guide, I suspect it's probably impossible to have both "vibrant, diverse and a bit edgy" AND ALSO "wealth, stability and zero crime."
I think there might well be some truth to that. I think the best strategy is to keep your money and secure residency in the latter. But maybe have an outpost of sorts in the former to live it up or enjoy low COL. Singaporean's have the whole of Asia on their doorstep, for example. Buying a ranch in Argentina seems fraught with hassle and risk, but renting somewhere there might be fun. Leave if things start to go wrong. That was a good article btw :))

@alphaville - yes looks like all sorts of interesting shenanigans have gone on over the centuries. It may be one place where 'commie-nazi' was not entirely an oxymoron...

Lots of Britons emigrated to Argentina in the late 19th /early 20th century, often highly educated ones who apparently formed a distinct, anglo-argentinian segment of the ruling elite. They did fundraising for Britain during the wars and wrote anti-nazi propaganda (well some of them did) I don't know if they are still a recognisable community, I expect they have dissolved away by now.

Post Reply