Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

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ertyu
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Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by ertyu »

Let's see, then :lol:.

Below, please make your best, honest attempt to predict the future. At the end of 2021, we will again reconvene to amuse ourselves with how wrong we were :lol:

fingeek
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by fingeek »

* Remote working will become the norm (or, will continue to be the norm). This will cause a mass change for the residential and commercial property market. "Feeder" towns will see a house price rise, and prices in large cities like London will stagnate (not convinced they will drop).
* Bitcoin will finally become adopted as more mainstream (not likely to be predominant for a few years), and the BTCUSD price will settle into a slow regular rise in relation to its fixed inflation.
* Markets (S&P, FTSE 100 etc.) will rally from June, as the vaccine kicks in proper. I'll go for a 25% increase YoY in both, compared to Jan 2021 price.
* New "remoteista" sectors will emerge, both connecting people socially (eg zoom) and commercially (eg uh... zoom)

ertyu
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by ertyu »

*It's not a secret that the point to Brexit was to avoid offshore tax scrutiny. Everyone predicts that the UK will do worse with Brexit. I predict that the UK will experience net inflows from those throughout the EU that want to use any potential tax loopholes. While I have no doubt that life will suck for ordinary people, the FTSE may well rise.
*Ditto bc now that the UK is out of the EU, people might want to allocate to UK in particular rather than have an incidental allocation to the uk as part of their overall eu allocation. This might strengthen if europe/the euro are in fact as shaky as some argue them to be. Would the pound become a second eu safe haven like the swiss franc?
*Add to this any short-term growth that may occur as wealthy brits relax regulation so as to better pillage their country

All of these imply that the ftse will rise - though the timing of any entry one might want to make might depend on the uk corona situation.

*fuck nestle, but also, I predict that food prices will keep rising across europe. I expect them to benefit.
*the reflation trade everyone is currently pumping will turn out to be a dud. even with a dem sweep, fiscal will be less than people expect.

bostonimproper
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by bostonimproper »

• GA Senate will be one R and one D.
• Market correction (likely a blip, temporary) after vaccine distributed, stimulus not renewed, eviction moratorium ends, and people realize that some of the job losses of last year really are permanent, reducing consumer demand. Circa summer-ish.
• Major cyber warfare event that gets pretty scary.
• Sky turns orange in California again, exodus continues.
• In spite of bubblicious valuations, tech and innovation stocks continue to climb.
• We won’t really be talking about Trump by end of year.

ertyu
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by ertyu »

bostonimproper wrote:
Sat Dec 26, 2020 12:23 pm

• Major cyber warfare event that gets pretty scary.
• Sky turns orange in California again, exodus continues.
sadly i agree with both of these. I recently learned Yakutia now gets forest fires. Up in Syberia.

I have been afraid that the cyber warfare event will go for banks and brokerages. I doubt anything can better spark social unrest than people having their accounts emptied.
• We won’t really be talking about Trump by end of year.
from your lips to god's ears, as we say here

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unemployable
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by unemployable »

US stocks will reach highs in the spring on continued momentum from 2020 and stimulus/enthusiasm over however people think Joe Biden is going to save the world. Over the second half of the year the broad market will stagnate or drop slightly as this earlier enthusiasm and distribution of the vaccine get fully priced in and the limits on what governments are able to accomplish become apparent. Sectors will have wild swings: FAANG-type stocks will drop sharply by year end and deep value will stabilize or even rise. Banks do well; they were never the problem in the first place. Overall the year-end change in the broad market (SPX or VTI) will be single digits one way or the other, but the ride there will be wild.

Inflation rises but not to Jimmy Carter-era levels, more like the annualized 4-5% range. This is enough to cause mortgage rates to rise, however, and combined with the tailing off of urban exodus and expiring rent/mortgage moratoria housing prices do crazy things -- mostly stagnate or decline, although housing in vacationey and retirement areas remains strong. Real estate inventory swells at all levels. Commercial RE is a complete bloodbath and newly-built or in-progress office buildings get converted to residential. Food and commodity prices rise fastest, although oil is kept somewhat in check for now.

Western Europe markets continue to stagnate as nothing they offer benefits from this environment, although I could see Europe outperforming the US slightly as people look for value. Something like high single digits versus zero/negative in the US. Asian and emerging markets do well.

Late in the year Toyota announces an all-electric car roughly the size of the Prius and priced only a couple grand higher, sending TSLA crashing.

Congressional reapportionment results in California and Illinois losing two seats, most of the larger Rust Belt states losing one seat (NY may also lose two) and Texas gaining four seats.

Bitcoin: I have no goddamned idea. This is the opinion in which I have the most confidence. If it grows in importance to the point it has the societal penetration of say bank accounts or 401k's, governments will strongly tighten their regulation and taxation of it. Pretty confident of that too, although not implying it would get to that level in 2021.

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unemployable
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by unemployable »

ertyu wrote:
Sat Dec 26, 2020 2:10 pm
I have been afraid that the cyber warfare event will go for banks and brokerages. I doubt anything can better spark social unrest than people having their accounts emptied.
There's very good auditing for this though -- probably the best of any asset other than real estate*. If it really worries you you can always just ask for the stock certificates.

*I could see title theft growing and becoming the next identity-theft issue.

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by Dream of Freedom »

We have a nice sized melt-up. Then a crash. Oil will rise as fracking is banned.

The middle class will think that they just got a huge boon from the new work from home economy. By the end of the year some of the shrewd ones will understand that what no fixed location really means is that their job is going to India.

Political protests will increase in both size and intensity. People hope that the left will stop because Trump is gone. They'll be wrong. The police forces that they are complaining about are state and local mostly run by democratic mayor's an governors not the feds. They will be competing for the honor of loudest protests by the right who at least a sizable portion of which believe the election was rigged.

Maybe I'm just feeling a bit pessimistic today.
Last edited by Dream of Freedom on Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:37 pm, edited 4 times in total.

Alphaville
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by Alphaville »

ertyu wrote:
Sat Dec 26, 2020 6:26 am
hoping not to take the thread off topic, but what are your main sources of information on financial markets? free/paid ones? looking for a bit of hive mind power here.

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Lemur
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by Lemur »

1.) Stocks will continue to go up as the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates real low and there will be no signs of inflation as recoveries take a while.

2.) The DEMS win Senate in Georgia and the Republicans spend the next 4 years concerned about the Federal Debt and Spending. Calls for a US Universal Healthcare System grow but I believe this will die in the house/senate as some Democrats will defect due to moderate/progressive divide. Republicans will use this to there advantage and potentially even gain the house in 2022.

3.) I predict SPY passes 4000+. The S&P index already did the great filter on dropping companies that were not profitable / survived the COVID crash. The companies that survived will thrive due to gobbling up the little guys market share.

thedollar
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by thedollar »

2021 Predictions
  • Cash is trash will continue to rule in 2021. Lots of cash currently on the sideline as well as huge stimulus will continue to inflate assets.
  • BTC will hit $100,000
  • Gold hits $2,000
  • S&P500 hits $4,000 for the first time ever!
  • TSLA hits $1,000
  • Value stocks will see increase as they are considered a new type of bond like investment. The increase will be modest due to their carbon intensive nature.
  • Tech and green/ethical equity will once again see the larges gains as growth in their revenue/profits are not directly linked to carbon emissions.
  • If all above becomes reality in 2021, I predict that TheDollar will shift focus and spend all hours trying to find meaningful ways to improve life for the largest possible number of people
Last edited by thedollar on Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

nomadscientist
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by nomadscientist »

Next year won't be as good as this year. It might be a crash, it might not. Probably it'll move sideways as inflation creeps up (perhaps not admitted in official statistics). Retail will keep pouring money into the stonk market that only goes up until it solidly goes down, or at least stays boring for a while.

The US government will need to decide on fiscal consolidation. Who will pay for corona? There are no good answers and I don't know the factions well enough to even try to predict it. Probably the can will be kicked and the Fed will inflate the debt to some tolerable level.

I own BTC, but am not a bull. I don't know anyone who actually uses BTC for anything. And I know some strange people.

Low confidence in all of this.

shemp
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by shemp »

I see no good alternative to REASONABLY PRICED stocks and real-estate. Since I anticipate violent dips in the stock market eventually, I might switch from current 2% cash, 98% stocks to maybe 30%/70%, to be prepared to buy back in during a dip. Then again, maybe not. I have the right personality for market timing, however in addition to right personality, success additionally requires keeping attuned to the mood of the investing public, and I'm getting old for that.

Unreasonably priced stocks and real estate and bonds are all risky. Not sure when the crash will come, but timing doesn't matter. Take your money out now and put it into reasonably priced alternatives.

Bitcoin will eventually go to near zero, but it could take several years for this to happen. Everything bitcoin does can be done by digital mechanisms tightly linked to fiat currencies ultimately backed by military and police power. Unless bitcoin community acquires ability (either direct or indirect ability) to inflict physical pain or death on those who oppose it, it cannot compete with government backed fiat currencies, and that will eventually spell bitcoin's demise. As for near future, don't know and don't care either.

Price of gold is held down by cost of energy and other resources required to mine it, and those costs are stable for now. Looking ahead, gold price will be dragged down by holding costs if real interest rates ever rise. I expect rates to rise a lot sometime in the next 10 years, but not in 2021. So gold could continue to rise, but I'm no more interested in gold than in bitcoin.

IlliniDave
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by IlliniDave »

Big tech and megacorps will thrive (high tax and regulatory environments along with returning free reign to China will give them a big advantage) but the rest of the market will get crushed (i.e., my small/value bets will prove to be bad ones). So the market will go up, dragged by the upper right Morningstar box but it will be a case of the rich getting richer. Tech especially will benefit since they were good soldiers and are owed a back scratching. A volatile year with the SP500 finishing up 5-10%. Similar for worldwide markets I suspect.

ducknald_don
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by ducknald_don »

I wonder if tech stocks might well fall back once we have got past the thing. I would have thought we have collectively bought enough laptops to last a few years now and everybody is sick of Zoom.

Lucky C
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by Lucky C »

Lucky C wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:41 pm
Seasonally-adjusted weekly initial unemployment claims (or their 4-wk moving average since weekly is noisy) will end 2020 higher than they started (222k for the week ending 12/28/19).
Edit: by a lot

US stock market margin debt will at no point in 2020 exceed the current cycle high set in January 2018.
Edit: WRONG, November margin numbers (and probably December) managed to beat the January 2018 euphoria.

The ISM manufacturing PMI will fall below 45 at some point in 2020.
Edit: Correct, low of 41.5 in April.

S&P500 RSI (14 day) will fall below 50 at some before the end of February (I know this would not seem like a bold prediction if it weren't for this crazy rally).
Edit: Correct, fell below 50 on 1/27/20.

Gold mining stocks (e.g. RING ETF) will outperform S&P500.
Edit: Yes.
S&P500 total return: about 18%
RING total return: about 25%


Donald Trump will lose the 2020 presidential election.
Edit: Yup
I was right 5 out of 6 for 2020. You might say some was "luck" due to the extreme effects of the pandemic, but on the other hand I may have been right about the margin debt if there wasn't a pandemic crash leading to a resurgence of excitement and euphoria, basically fast forwarding us through the next market cycle.

I was careful about those predictions, only making ones that I felt confident about based on what I had studied, rather than going by gut feelings.

Now, for 2021 I make only one prediction:
The S&P500 will experience another bear market in 2021 - a peak to trough drop in price of at least 20%.


You've been warned. :twisted:

ducknald_don
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by ducknald_don »

Yes, I just went back through the 2020 thread and noticed nobody was predicting a pandemic that shut down large swathes of the economy.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

The 10%+ (global 1%) (ish)will keep buying stocks and/or similarly brokered commodities like tween girls buy fast fashion, because the process has become just as easy, social and transparent. Innovators and designers/style-setters will make bank. ARKK 250+

ELSE:

Wet bulb 35+ C heat wave event kills over 10 million.

AND/OR

Torrential rain/landslide event destroys property value over 50 billion.

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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by jacob »

ducknald_don wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:39 am
Yes, I just went back through the 2020 thread and noticed nobody was predicting a pandemic that shut down large swathes of the economy.
Try going back to 2017 :mrgreen: viewtopic.php?p=146650#p146650 (pay particular attention to item #2)

I generally don't dabble in timing with these things nor in investing matters. "What" is a lot easier than "When" with the tools I have, so I'd rather set up for what's going to happen and wait for conditions to evolve towards my position than trying to catch a situation as it's unfolding or about to unfold. I try to read predictions accordingly (like scenarios) and for the same reason I'm not "timing" my own.

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Dream of Freedom wrote:
Sun Dec 27, 2020 1:32 pm
Political protests will increase in both size and intensity. People hope that the left will stop because Trump is gone. They'll be wrong. The police forces that they are complaining about are state and local mostly run by democratic mayor's an governors not the feds. They will be competing for the honor of loudest protests by the right who at least a sizable portion of which believe the election was rigged.
The capital building has been breached by protesters. Congressmen are locked down inside. I'm calling this a successful prediction. As for the competition for loudest protest I'd say the Rs take an early lead.

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