Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

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Seppia
Posts: 1500
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by Seppia »

Well, Tesla is getting absolutely obliterated in the most competitive EV market (Europe), they sold about the same number of cars in 2020 than they did in 2019 in a market that has doubled in size.
VW just grabbed 30%+ market share VS Tesla’s 10% while only being a player for 1 year.

Tesla trades for almost 30 times revenues to VW’s 0.3 times (not a typo).

Till they’ll be able to raise money at these insane prices they can keep the fraud going (the math on EV credit sales doesn’t check and they represent >100% of all last quarter profits) though, so shorting this thing is ultra dangerous.

I am watching this in complete disbelief, but then I remind myself of one of my mantras (“most people can’t add and subtract”) and see how this can happen.

It will end for sure, who knows when.

ducknald_don
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:31 pm
Location: Oxford, UK

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by ducknald_don »

It was obvious the European manufacturers weren't going to twiddle their thumbs whilst Tesla ate away at their high margin products. Even Fiat who have been deliberately slow have EV's in the pipeline.

My biggest surprise is Toyota who appeared to be well positioned because of their history with hybrids. They seem to have been caught with their pants down. Meanwhile emissionsgate seems to have put a rocket up VW's backside.

white belt
Posts: 298
Joined: Sat May 21, 2011 12:15 am

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by white belt »

Seppia wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:50 am
I am watching this in complete disbelief, but then I remind myself of one of my mantras (“most people can’t add and subtract”) and see how this can happen.
People have been pouring money into Tesla because of the story, not because they are carefully analyzing earnings reports or any quantitative data.

The story goes something like this: “Electric vehicles are the future and Tesla is way ahead of everyone else in terms of battery technology. Elon Musk is also a mad scientist who consistently innovates past these dinosaur car manufacturer. His battery technology is so superior that it will be in many future applications from PV batteries to vehicles. Also as a green company, Tesla is helping to reverse climate change and save the planet.” The story appeals to both environmentalists and techno-optimists.

Couple the previous story with the fact that the stock “can only go up” and you have the context to this bubble. There is a clear demand for “green” companies across all sectors that investors can virtue signal and feel good about. That’s why you’re seeing every company under the sun trying to market itself as eco-friendly (e.g. GM just changed their logo).

Alphaville
Posts: 2466
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:50 am
Location: Quarantined

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by Alphaville »

speaking of eco-friendly just saw the site for the new ford bronco sport (looks awesome, rugged, not too big) featuring a... 1.5l gasoline engine?? yup, and the top of the line model a 2.0l engine WAT.

i mean it's still gas but such modest displacement under the ford bronco name is mind boggling

(plus it's got room for 2 mountain bikes in the back).

not to take it ot, but the green trends are there

Alphaville
Posts: 2466
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:50 am
Location: Quarantined

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by Alphaville »

bad news for tesla?

gm unveiled today an electric delivery truck division called "bright drop"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-gm-ele ... 1610467968

fedex in line to buy the first 500 units

they'll also make electic dollies for warehouses etc

they're building an "ultium" brand battery plant in ohio in partnership with lg

plus, upcoming electric hummer (the atrocity)

mary barra is all in on electric

--

eta: thanks! fixed the broken link
Last edited by Alphaville on Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

ducknald_don
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:31 pm
Location: Oxford, UK

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by ducknald_don »

@Alphaville your url seems to be broken.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-gm-ele ... 1610467968

ertyu
Posts: 1520
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by ertyu »

I really want to buy tsla puts. The problem with that, though, is that with tsla, fund flows and options dynamics completely overwhelm any fundamentals when it comes to what the stock does. Also, space x is most certainly working with the military and i have a suspicion that EM is getting away with stuff because (1) he's useful even though he is a crook - starlink etc, and (2) the image of elon as the high-tech inventor is useful to the gvt from a propaganda standpoint. It makes them look good to keep the narrative around him going. It's good for morale. So while I have no doubt that tsla is an exceedingly bad business, I am not sure whether and when it will be shortable.

white belt
Posts: 298
Joined: Sat May 21, 2011 12:15 am

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by white belt »

@Ertyu

I agree that Tesla likely isn’t even EM’s best company, but the hype is so great that I wouldn’t go near trying to short it. SpaceX has already completely disrupted how satellites and space shuttles are launched. Coming from the perspective of someone who is very familiar with military communications systems, Starlink on paper is a paradigm-shifting technology that will change the way the USA conducts war.

ertyu
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Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by ertyu »

TSLA going up

I really really want to sell 950c weeklies for earnings; this is your guys' timing signal :lol: sharing so you can inverse me :lol:
Starlink on paper is a paradigm-shifting technology that will change the way the USA conducts war.
I believe this. There was a video the other day of some surgeon in london doing surgery on a banana in la; i wonder why this was a skill "they" thought they should develop

seems like the trajectory is to keep as much resounrces and manpower on home soil and operate as much as possible remotely

the paradoxical thing is, i read it actually results in more ptsd. drone pilots who do their 9-5 and go home to their picket fence and 2.5 kids seem to end up way more messed up than soldiers who did tours and could have a clean divide between soldier mode and civilian mode. being who i am, i forgot where i read it, but i find it interesting.

white belt
Posts: 298
Joined: Sat May 21, 2011 12:15 am

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by white belt »

ertyu wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:05 pm
I believe this. There was a video the other day of some surgeon in london doing surgery on a banana in la; i wonder why this was a skill "they" thought they should develop

seems like the trajectory is to keep as much resounrces and manpower on home soil and operate as much as possible remotely

the paradoxical thing is, i read it actually results in more ptsd. drone pilots who do their 9-5 and go home to their picket fence and 2.5 kids seem to end up way more messed up than soldiers who did tours and could have a clean divide between soldier mode and civilian mode. being who i am, i forgot where i read it, but i find it interesting.
Yeah, that is a pretty useless application. A more useful one is being able to send large amounts of data “Over the Horizon” from anywhere in the world, particularly areas that don’t have good telecom infrastructure (many developing countries) or have sophisticated cyber capabilites so using local telecom is risky (China, Russia, etc). This could mean you would send 4K video (or any kind of data) live from anywhere in the world to anywhere else in the world, without the need for a wired connection or any infrastructure on the ground. You are correct that this is a foundational step to having robots fight your wars. You can probably also think of many non-military applications for such a capability.

One survey showed drone pilots get PTSD at rates of 4.3% vs 10-18% of conventional pilots. PTSD causes are still not well understood because you could have 10 people witness the same traumatic event, but only 1 might develop PTSD.

Edit: An obvious follow on step is to start running AI on all the data that can be collected from a sensor/drone and eventually you’ll be able to make an AI drone that can kill better than any human pilot.

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Jean
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Location: Switzterland

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by Jean »

ertyu wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:05 pm

the paradoxical thing is, i read it actually results in more ptsd. drone pilots who do their 9-5 and go home to their picket fence and 2.5 kids seem to end up way more messed up than soldiers who did tours and could have a clean divide between soldier mode and civilian mode.
There is a vidéo by Lindy Beige about this question. Short answer is PTSD is caused by realising that one killed a fellow human after thé act, instead of consciensiouly chosing to kill before pulling the trigger. Human are apparently able to take such a décision in only two cases, they are a psychopath, or they are protecting loved ones.

ertyu
Posts: 1520
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by ertyu »

why would one not buy GME otm leap puts at this juncture

giskard
Posts: 181
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:07 pm

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by giskard »

ertyu wrote:
Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:27 am
why would one not buy GME otm leap puts at this juncture
Oh man this is indeed the question. Up 85% again today as I look and WOW the short interest is still there.

How much can the shorts handle? How long can this reflexive rally of call buying, market maker hedging and short covering go on?

My guess is it goes on for a little while longer but surely not to $1000 a share!

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Lemur
Posts: 899
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by Lemur »

@ertyu

GME closed today at $76.79. After hours the stock is trading around $88. Here is why you couldn't just do a OTM Put...take for instance the $75 OTM Put. Last option price is $18.00. So you would need the stock to fall under $75 just to be ITM with intrinsic value...but you would need the stock to fall to $57 just to break-even on the trade by expiration. The reason the options are so expensive is due to the IV on the options.

I doubt with all this hype you could profit as short sellers are still covering their positions / buying.

If I was to play GME...it would have to be a case where I'm staring at my computer and trying to get in get out. I wouldn't do it.

^^^ Just typed all this not realizing you stated LEAP Put...thought you meant weekly. In any case...with IV so high you would be over-paying for a position that might just set a new support anyway. You could also see the value of your options decline via IV crush.

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