Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

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Seppia
Posts: 1497
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by Seppia »

Well, Tesla is getting absolutely obliterated in the most competitive EV market (Europe), they sold about the same number of cars in 2020 than they did in 2019 in a market that has doubled in size.
VW just grabbed 30%+ market share VS Tesla’s 10% while only being a player for 1 year.

Tesla trades for almost 30 times revenues to VW’s 0.3 times (not a typo).

Till they’ll be able to raise money at these insane prices they can keep the fraud going (the math on EV credit sales doesn’t check and they represent >100% of all last quarter profits) though, so shorting this thing is ultra dangerous.

I am watching this in complete disbelief, but then I remind myself of one of my mantras (“most people can’t add and subtract”) and see how this can happen.

It will end for sure, who knows when.

ducknald_don
Posts: 25
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:31 pm
Location: Oxford, UK

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by ducknald_don »

It was obvious the European manufacturers weren't going to twiddle their thumbs whilst Tesla ate away at their high margin products. Even Fiat who have been deliberately slow have EV's in the pipeline.

My biggest surprise is Toyota who appeared to be well positioned because of their history with hybrids. They seem to have been caught with their pants down. Meanwhile emissionsgate seems to have put a rocket up VW's backside.

white belt
Posts: 259
Joined: Sat May 21, 2011 12:15 am

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by white belt »

Seppia wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:50 am
I am watching this in complete disbelief, but then I remind myself of one of my mantras (“most people can’t add and subtract”) and see how this can happen.
People have been pouring money into Tesla because of the story, not because they are carefully analyzing earnings reports or any quantitative data.

The story goes something like this: “Electric vehicles are the future and Tesla is way ahead of everyone else in terms of battery technology. Elon Musk is also a mad scientist who consistently innovates past these dinosaur car manufacturer. His battery technology is so superior that it will be in many future applications from PV batteries to vehicles. Also as a green company, Tesla is helping to reverse climate change and save the planet.” The story appeals to both environmentalists and techno-optimists.

Couple the previous story with the fact that the stock “can only go up” and you have the context to this bubble. There is a clear demand for “green” companies across all sectors that investors can virtue signal and feel good about. That’s why you’re seeing every company under the sun trying to market itself as eco-friendly (e.g. GM just changed their logo).

Alphaville
Posts: 2419
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:50 am
Location: Quarantined

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by Alphaville »

speaking of eco-friendly just saw the site for the new ford bronco sport (looks awesome, rugged, not too big) featuring a... 1.5l gasoline engine?? yup, and the top of the line model a 2.0l engine WAT.

i mean it's still gas but such modest displacement under the ford bronco name is mind boggling

(plus it's got room for 2 mountain bikes in the back).

not to take it ot, but the green trends are there

Alphaville
Posts: 2419
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:50 am
Location: Quarantined

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by Alphaville »

bad news for tesla?

gm unveiled today an electric delivery truck division called "bright drop"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-gm-ele ... 1610467968

fedex in line to buy the first 500 units

they'll also make electic dollies for warehouses etc

they're building an "ultium" brand battery plant in ohio in partnership with lg

plus, upcoming electric hummer (the atrocity)

mary barra is all in on electric

--

eta: thanks! fixed the broken link
Last edited by Alphaville on Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

ducknald_don
Posts: 25
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:31 pm
Location: Oxford, UK

Re: Amateur Recommendations Log (what NOT to buy)

Post by ducknald_don »

@Alphaville your url seems to be broken.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-gm-ele ... 1610467968

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