Deagel.com Country forescast

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ertyu
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Re: Deagel.com Country forescast

Post by ertyu »

nomadscientist wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:47 am
btw, my main concern about holding Russian equities would be the US government seizing or otherwise rendering worthless that holding.
afaik you're holding ADRs anyway, same as with Chinese stocks

shemp
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Re: Deagel.com Country forescast

Post by shemp »

Drone torpedoes are by no means a novel superweapon. Torpedoes and sea mines have been around since before WWII, but now they can be equipped with smart electronics and powerful lithium batteries, and hence are vastly more deadly than those of WW2. All ships, whether surface or submarine, give off sound, which carries a very long distance through water. Smart torpedoes can easily follow that sound to the source, while remaining almost undetectable themselves if they go slowly, and they can go slowly if a herd of them surrounds the enemy, so no way for enemy to escape. If torpedoes outnumber ships 100:1 or 1000:1, some will surely get through any anti-torpedo defenses. It would be easy for China to simply blockade Taiwan with such smart torpedos, plus blockade Korea and Japan if they won't go neutral.

Geopolitics depends on military technology. If technology allows for offensive sea power, then seafaring nations, like Britain in 19th century or the USA in 20th, can dominate the world. But when technology allows easily cutting of sea lanes, as it does now, then seafaring nations must return to their home landmasses.

My guess is that Russia will never directly fight the west, not because they can't win such a fight, but because it's so much more profitable to sit on the sidelines and supply China with oil and other resources while China fights the US. Because that fight will result in cutting of sea lanes, it will cut Chinese access to mideast oil. Russia can also supply Iran with weapons to fight Turkey for supremacy in the mideast. This conflict will occur after USA has been driven out of Mideast by drone torpedoes of Chinese or Russian manufacture but launched by Iran. Since no direct conflict with Russia, no reason for US to seize Russian stocks. Also, as long as Russia is just a provider of weapons, Europeans unlikely to cut ties with Russia.

Meanwhile, back in the USA, of course those mobs of rioters can be stomped easily, and I'm not sure why I even mentioned them. Probably I got influenced by some tripe I read elsewhere. Real danger is that a corrupted security elite decides to grab power. USA as a whole and wage slaves who do truly useful work will both do fine if this happens. But useless eater rentier class, including me, might get thrown under the bus. That's sort of what happened in the collapse of the USSR, or similar collapses in Venezuela, Zimbabwe, etc. A new elite, with power focused on physical force (trained soldiers with weapons) replaces an old elite, with power focused on language (media, bureaucracy, legal system, paper/electronic ownership versus physical possession by someone toting weapons to defend ownership). Inflation would be part of this wiping out of rentiers and old elite. Another aspect would be wholesale looting of corporations by managers: dilution of ownership rights, fraudulent bankruptcies/buyouts approved by corrupted/coerced judicial system, etc.

nomadscientist
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Re: Deagel.com Country forescast

Post by nomadscientist »

I'm not suggesting those weapons aren't real or effective (although I don't know), only they're not a necessary assumption to reach the same conclusion.

China is rapidly launching warships and is close to local superiority against the USA already in regular types. Local superiority is easier because the USA needs more than two carriers to have always two at sea, more than that to have two at sea very distant from its mainland, more than that to also have one or two in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean influencing other countries, etc.

In the next twenty years that's likely to give way to absolute Chinese superiority which means overwhelming local superiority. It's implausible that the US will retain its current dominance in the region in such a situation.

I think we saw a taste of this in the recent Burma situation where the US announced via the UN that the generals were not allowed to use force. They used it anyway and nothing happened to them, the story eventually being quietly dropped by West propaganda rather than analysed over and over as a grave injustice. Suggestive that the US no longer has the strategic flexibility to deploy a carrier into the Indian Ocean any more, not without giving up much more important goals anyway.

That area will expand to eventually include the Middle East and the whole of Europe. This countries could break entirely away from the US system in such a case. Though the US will try to hold on to them anyway with psy-ops and targeted co-option of the local upper class.

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Alphaville
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Re: Deagel.com Country forescast

Post by Alphaville »

i'm not endorsing anyone's previous interpretations here, just adding the info that south america is already more tightly connected to china than to the usa. mining in chile and peru, agriculture in argentina and brazil, free sinovax vaccines for colombia while us-colombia tensions increase... i don't see a big usa presence or influence in that region anymore. sure, we buy wine and berries and bell peppers and fish and chocolate... which is more luxuries really, rather than strategic resources like copper or lithium that china increasingly controls.

we're more tightly integrated with mexico and canada, and keep influence all the way to the panama canal. but beyond... i can't say we're winning. a lot of wasted opportunities in the past few years, although there's also a general trend that spans decades.

shemp
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Re: Deagel.com Country forescast

Post by shemp »

nomadscientist wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:54 am
I think we saw a taste of this in the recent Burma situation
Another example of US backdown is here in Ukraine. USA had arranged to send 2 warships into the Black Sea (which requires advance notice to Turkey) then cancelled when Russia started massing troops on Ukraine's borders. Lots of stern talk and some more ineffective sanctions against Russia by US and Western Europeans, but overall message is clear: Ukraine is being thrown under the bus. Putin was smart enough not to actually invade, and thereby trigger Germany to start getting serious. He wanted to test US in general and Biden on particular, and to test Western Europe, and to send a message to Ukraine to stop dreaming about NATO, and he accomplished all 3 goals at low cost.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians here are busy squabbling among one another as usual. Latest issue is complaint by national government that politicians in some regional governments are still speaking in Russian rather than Ukrainian during public meetings (most of population in those regions speaks Russian). Similar squabbling everywhere in Europe. Laughable to think that these divided countries are capable of opposing a Russia united under dictatorship, especially if Russia moves intelligently and quietly: propaganda, interference in local elections, divide and conquer techniques, etc.

chenda
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Re: Deagel.com Country forescast

Post by chenda »

@shemp - The counter argument to this is that Russia is in long term demographic decline (its only around France + Germany) has an enormous and sparsely populated eastern empire to defend and is not a major threat to western Europe. Neither is it likely to welcome millions of Chinese immigrants loyal to Beijing rather than Moscow. I'm no expert on this but it's a view I have heard from various former diplomats.

nomadscientist
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Re: Deagel.com Country forescast

Post by nomadscientist »

The main significance of Russia is as mine and farm for China, which makes US blockade impotent. Annoying, yes, but not existential. At some point the US will also lose the ability to blockade China, but not yet.

This is a medium term (10-20 year) consideration. Demographic changes come later.

The US could defeat Russia now in a direct confrontation with total commitment. But the cost would be Chinese push everywhere else, taking ultimately more valuable prizes. Also, China would likely invade Siberia anyway if Russia collapsed and looked like being conquered by the USA.

West European states are not able to wage war independently; they lack basic requirements such as ammunition stocks.

The USA's best strategy would be to appeal to its allies as a stable and benign alternative to a new, untested, possibly scary China. By juggling allies and appealing to their actual long term interests, it could remain the central power despite insufficient own military might, as Britain did for about two centuries. But US's historic appeal of high living standards is becoming weak in a world where living standards are converging everywhere (ERE-level products available everywhere more or less at par to local salaries, outside Subsaharan African), and many of its signature products are being recognised as crappy and harmful (e.g. McDonalds). Meanwhile the new cultural offer is not license mixed with frontier masculinity, but transplanted ethnic violence and social disintegration, a harmful choice for any society. Even West Europe will eventually realise that.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Deagel.com Country forescast

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:20 am
The prediction is for nuclear war but as we saw the corrupt elites play Event 201 just in advance of Covid-1984, NATO is now playing a cyber war game so I would expect that to be next.
Cyberattack Forces Shutdown Of Largest Gasoline Pipeline In United States

white belt
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Re: Deagel.com Country forescast

Post by white belt »

Today I saw panic buying in my area in the Southeast. Gas stations have started to run out of gas and I saw lines of cars backed up into the street. The base is rationing remaining gas and limiting customers to 10 gallons each. I haven’t heard anything about statewide rationing yet but maybe that’s coming.


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