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Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:28 pm
by giskard
I haven't seen a lot of folks in this forum too interested in Crypto, but having been involved in the space off and on for a long time now I'm watching with interest at what looks like the start of a new crypto bull run. Anyway, just wanted to start a discussion for those interested!

Here are a couple of reasons I think this is happening now:

- People going crazy with yield farming schemes on new defi networks
- Alt coins going up a lot while bitcoin builds a base. This happened before the other bull runs.
- Lot of fintwit macro folks starting to push bitcoin
- Obvious reason to be interested in "digital gold" with current ZIRP monetary policy, possible inflation hedge
- Large investors such as Paul Tudor Jones publicly endorsing it as a good bet right now
- Misc regulatory progress in mainstreaming crypto assets.
- DXY is dropping

Anyway, bullish right?

Disclosure: I have some BTC, ETH

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:38 am
by WingsOnFire
I have some BTC. I've had ETH and some alts before but don't actually know that much about cryptos. (Just looked, ETH is up almost 8% in the last 24 hours..)
I don't know that another bull run will happen, of course, but it seems plausible, given the economic mess we are in.
It will be interesting to see what happens.

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:44 am
by shemp
Biggest threat to bitcoin is that it will be widely used by kidnappers/terrorists seeking ransom payments, and eventually this will become such a problem that governments worldwide make bitcoin illegal (life in prison plus maybe preliminary questioning at Guantanamo prison if you used bitcoin outside the USA and were captured by the CIA). Use of bitcoin by ransom seekers is a question of when, not if.

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:51 am
by ertyu
Julian Brigden put it best:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/j ... 0484937202

0:00 - 1:40

Other than that, we seem to be risk-on, so pile up into it I guess

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:22 pm
by Mister Imperceptible
I actually think the crime aspect is overblown. Can say the same thing about physical cash or gold. Would not surprise me if major country or bank ran one or more of major cryptos. Of if just sign of times.

I remember being a non-knowledge worker, and there was a lot of exposure to pyramid schemes, the in-person kind. When you look at S&P 500 you see something similar now. But a call option on insanity can be profitable in an insane world. Just know the option expires.

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:52 pm
by giskard
ertyu wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:51 am
Julian Brigden put it best:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/j ... 0484937202

0:00 - 1:40

Other than that, we seem to be risk-on, so pile up into it I guess
I've heard this take before but I think that price where it is a threat is at least 5x to 10x from where we are now. Definitely a concern though which is why I overall only have a small amount of my total assets in crypto.

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:35 am
by shemp
The issue with currency or gold for ransoms has always been taking physical delivery. Bitcoin avoids that problem.

I did a quick search after posting and learned: (a) I'm evidently approaching senility and falling behind the times because bitcoin has been used for years already to collect ransom by both hackers and kidnappers; (b) bitcoin is not truly untraceable like currency or gold, since the particular address used for a crime remains permanently attached and this address could be added to a list of bad addresses and then exchanges can refuse to accept bitcoins showing that address; (c) several kidnappers have already been caught after taking bitcoin payment, precisely because it is traceable in case of attempt to spend the ransom money or convert to fiat.

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:44 pm
by giskard
shemp wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:35 am
(b) bitcoin is not truly untraceable like currency or gold, since the particular address used for a crime remains permanently attached and this address could be added to a list of bad addresses and then exchanges can refuse to accept bitcoins showing that address; (c) several kidnappers have already been caught after taking bitcoin payment, precisely because it is traceable in case of attempt to spend the ransom money or convert to fiat.
Yes it's way more traceable really. Binance just blocked people on its exchange from sending bitcoin to the addresses involved in the big twitter hack and most legit exchanges try to block customers from selling coins known to come from addresses used in scams. Can't do that with gold. Maybe you can with physical cash if you have a contiguous set of serial numbers or something.

I was just listening to a podcast today (Caitlin Long on the "Pomp" podcast - ep 346) and the guest was saying how eventually bankers and regulators are likely to embrace crypto assets because it is more traceable and easier to see if digital assets are being re-hypothecated as collateral. It would allow people to measure risk better in the overall financial system.

Anyway, bitcoin is up 10% today and looks like its blasting off along with gold and silver as the DXY craters. Guess when I started this thread the zeitgeist had influenced me or something.

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:35 pm
by Mister Imperceptible
There is a compelling argument for crypto, the influence of the zeitgeist notwithstanding, but for me it is less than what the asset can return as much as how much the potential returns relates to the potential loss. Crypto might go to zero. So that factors into position sizing.

For example, after looking at the returns of crypto just the last year thru a different lens, one should ask oneself what is the excess return possibility compared to other available assets. So the position size should come down to what one estimates the probability of and magnitude of potential excess return.

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:40 pm
by nomadscientist
Crypto and the USA can both go to zero.

It's less probable they will both do so simultaneously.

There is the value.

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:43 am
by shemp

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:03 am
by giskard
shemp wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:43 am
Interesting point:

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020 ... zi-scheme/
I've read this one before, Kuppy's blog is great. He makes a great point about the free float being sucked up by things like GBTC.

You can really say the same thing about index funds and FANGMAN stocks, they have to buy it. Mostly they just hold it, it just reduces the float and pushes prices higher as they mechanically buy and capture shares (he talks about Tesla and ESG ETFs specifically). If it happened there, why can't it happen with bitcoin?

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:37 am
by shemp
Meanwhile, Russia just put restrictions on bitcoin:

https://beincrypto.com/russia-bitcoin-b ... ent-means/

Probably won't be the last country to impose restrictions.

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:18 pm
by ertyu
agreed. people will get burned.

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:56 pm
by Jason
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1b_S6Qp2Q

90 minute discussion with Vitalik Buterin, founder of Ethereum. I am only 30 minutes through because these AI genius types are not exactly Robin Williams high on coke entertainment level interviews. Interesting discussion on "what is money" which leads to game theory, utility, status etc. I got the feeling he personally views money as a point system. Also the nature of crypto and how it explains why Bitcoin is the only significant technological innovation who's founder is not known with certitude.

Re: Crypto Bubble 3.0?

Posted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:11 pm
by jacob
Taking a more mindless---for lack of a better word---attitude towards crypto, I wonder if it doesn't ultimately resolve into a subculture in the usual way. It certainly seems to share many of the evolutionary traits.