Stock Market Blood Bath

[shemp]

Down maybe 14%. I'm at about 67% stocks, 33% cash now. My goal is 100% stocks and then just forget about it and live off the dividends, since my attention span for investing has gone to hell these past few years, so the less to think about, the better.

Prices of non USA stocks are okay, especially less developed (aka "emerging") markets, but USA stocks are still not cheap. Part of my set-it-and-forget-it plan is to have a single ETF for the entire world (like Vanguard VT) versus fiddling around with multiple ETFs, so need to wait until the whole world is cheap before committing my remaining cash to stocks.

[enigmaT120]

I haven't checked but I had way too much in cash (the G fund, if you know anything about the Thrift Savings Plan for federal employees) so I'll probably invest more in the S and P 500 index soon.

[Bankai]

No change since I was sitting on a pile of cash (thanks stop loss!). My DW, however, put half of her NW into FTSE all share tracker in Dec after tories won the election - the idea was that with stable majority Brexit would be finally sorted and stocks would have decent few years ahead. The timing couldn't be worse as she's down 15% NW. But since it's index tracker and she doesn't need to sell anytime soon (probably 10+ years) it doesn't really matter that much.

[Egg]

the idea was that with stable majority Brexit would be finally sorted and stocks would have decent few years ahead.

Not the theme of the thread - sorry - but sounds like a dodgy assumption to me, regardless of COVID-19. My working assumption is that we end up with a fairly ideological Brexit which prioritises regulatory divergence over economic damage limitation. The politics are debateable, but (assuming this is about UK stocks) I don't see a rosy economic outlook for the UK.

[Bankai]

Maybe in short-mid term - yes. However, in 5+ years it's likely the UK will have free trade agreements with most developed nations and no bureaucratic overhead from Brussels. Also, with valuations not very demanding and biggest uncertainty out of the way (markets don't like uncertainties), it didn't seem like a bad idea. Time will tell.

[Egg]

biggest uncertainty out of the way (markets don't like uncertainties)

Personally, I don't see that the uncertainty is significantly out of the way - we haven't meaningfully left the EU whilst we're in the transition period, and the future relationship is a much more significant negotiation than the withdrawal agreement. However, I won't derail the thread further as it's ultimately just an "agree to disagree" over educated guesses as to what's in store. As you say, time will tell.

[chenda]

However, in 5+ years it's likely the UK will have free trade agreements with most developed nations and no bureaucratic overhead from Brussels.

We certainly won't have free trade agreements; we might theoretically have some trade deals but they won't allow for free trade like we currently enjoy with the EU. And the EU will likely retain a de facto power of veto over what we try and negotiate.

Realistically though, corona is the nail in the coffin for hard Brexit. Boris physically can't negotiate with Brussels and the only option now is an emergency soft Brexit. It's not so much a crash out in December now but crash out into an inferno. I wager Boris knows this and will put his career over anything else.

[Bankai]

He didn't put his career above anything else with his current approach to the virus which is increasingly criticized. Normally you'd expect politicians in times like this to behave like a herd (similar to active funds managers) as you likely won't lose your job if you do what everyone else is doing. Instead, he's taking an enormous gamble with his unique approach to the virus. I'm really curious what's in his head, maybe he despises the idea of being just another PM and goes for 'greatness or death' kind of gamble.

[chenda]

@Bankai - True, very hard to predict him.

[forest_turtle]

Jacob said,
“You just look up/screen the percentage of institutional ownership in a given stock. Institutional means mutual and pension funds. Index funds are a type of mutual funds. I excluded stocks with over ~75% institutional ownership. Stocks with less institutional ownership will often be stocks that are not part of a major index or stocks that demonstrate a higher level of ownership mentality (where the founders held on).”

Jacob, I like the approach very much. Which stock screener are you using?

[forest_turtle]

@ Bankai

I’ve been considering investing in Britain since I heard Stan Druckenmiller talk about it in an interview a couple months back. This was before Corona, but that is temporary. He mentioned the favorable business policy likely to be enacted with the conservatives now in control. I’m seeing a dividend yield of close to 6%, far better than any index here in the US. I think he said the PE was around 11 at the time, also far better. It’s lower now with the virus. While I have little intimate knowledge of the UK economy, the risk reward prospects are very appealing compared to other ‘places’. I’m also curious if the negative feedback you’re receiving here is more politically motivated. However, I prefer not to discuss politics. I also wouldn’t be surprised if a ‘more autonomous’ GB fares better in all this financial chaos than many of the EU participants.

[jacob]

@forest_turtle - My broker's. Nothing fancy.

[forest_turtle]

Which broker do you use for screening?

[Cheepnis]

Last I checked at the end of last month I was down 2.4%. At ~60/40 I'm obviously down much further now. I'm finding I'm not that worried about it because it's still early in my investing career and I consider myself quite a long ways off from an adequate stash. And even though it's been nice watching my NW skyrocket these past couple years I've also realized that that number is nothing more than just a number. My day to day didn't change when I hit 6 digits, and it didn't change as I went well past that, and it's not gonna change if I now fall before that.

Eventually I want that number to allow me to make a big change in my day to day, but as I said that is still far enough away as to dampen this blow.

[Egg]

I’m also curious if the negative feedback you’re receiving here is more politically motivated.

Not on my part. I voted for Brexit and still think it was the right call. I just don't share Bankai's optimism on trade deals or short-term economic outlook.


Oh and to answer original thread question, I'm down 18% on stock market or about 4% of entire NW.

[Jason]

Down Fuck Me%

[theanimal]

@Jason- Do you still have Boeing?

[Jason]

Are they still around? I've been afraid to look.

[TheWanderingScholar]

Currently, they are at 125 -ish.

[ertyu]

@Jason I would hold. They're too strategic not to be bailed out. But then, I'm the dude who keeps getting buttfucked on his brilliant gdx ideas, so you know - grain of salt and all.