Your macro/mkt prediction for 2020? Let's see who gets it right

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Quadalupe
Posts: 163
Joined: Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:56 am
Location: the Netherlands

Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2020? Let's see who gets it right

Post by Quadalupe »

@ertyu, that's why I am partial to the permanent portfolio!

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Dream of Freedom
Posts: 596
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2020? Let's see who gets it right

Post by Dream of Freedom »

ertyu wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:11 am
To be fair there was a massive black swan event.

Marco economic prediction is rarely the only method of prediction employed by stock pickers. They usually combine it with fundamental and technical analysis. The combination was not measured with this exercise.

It isn't simply the percentage of right vs wrong that is important but the magnitude by which you are right or wrong matter as well. You can for instance simply lower the amount being wrong hurts through stop losses or various option strategies. So if you are right 50% of the time but when you are right you make 20% and when you are wrong you lose 10% that is actually a good bet.

This exercise does provide feedback for our predictions so they may actually improve over time.

7Wannabe5
Posts: 6822
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2020? Let's see who gets it right

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

I was mostly right. If anybody would like a copy of the prospectus for my Permaculture 2030 Edible Hedge Fund, please contact my VOA @ wannabe.llc.jk.

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