Here is my prediction: Politically, I think the Jan 3rd Iraq event will end up being more significant than the market discounted. It was barely a blip market-wise, and the news quickly spun it as, "well, he was a bad guy so we did them a favor anyway," but. It's a sense I have. Feels like the first link in a chain of dominoes that would result in an unforeseen consequence to me. This sounds too much like, "this event will impact other events", which, of course - any event impacts other events. My argument is this event will end up much more significant than currently foreseen or discounted. [What I hope will happen: nancy and mitch sit down and with their donors and are like, yea you wanted this dotard cokehead so you could do whatever you want, but look, he's a loose canon, we can't keep protecting him anymore, we need to impeach his ass. The risk of him hitting a big red button because someone told him, "well, what are'ya gonna do!" is way too high. Said dotard gets impeached and can't get reelected, bubble lets out air, and someone sane is elected in November. I don't even care if it's a democrat or a republican, just someone with an actual understanding of the dignity of their position, two brain cells that talk to each other, and a modicum of sanity. Murica: I like you guys. I want better than this shitshow for you.]
The market: everyone is preparing for stocks to tank and HYG to blow up. Everyone is looking for stocks with a "good balance sheet" - by which most people really mean not leveraged to the eyeballs. My prediction is that it's precisely the most leveraged companies that would do the best, because the money printing / debt monetization would proceed at scale and the real value of their debt would decline significantly, making them less leveraged in real terms and thus raising their valuations disproportionately. (This is one for the TSLA bulls, I guess
