https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... ct_id=5771
The issue being that many in the FIRE movement rely on the results of long run statistics committing the "since the risk of failure is only 5%, it's not going to happen to me"-error of thinking. The case is made that this kind of thinking doesn't work on the individual practical level. What's interesting is that insofar one wants guarantees rather than chances, the strategy to follow as an extremely early retiree is the very opposite of what is generally believed....the conventional wisdom may not apply to broad classes of individuals who face substantial human-capital risk early in their careers. For such individuals, the opposite policy may be optimal, i.e., to start out with a relatively low fraction of the investment portfolio in stocks
and increase it over time. Another critical determinant of the optimal investment in stocks is how close people are to some minimum “subsistence” level of consumption. People should be expected to insure against falling below such a level through their asset allocation policy.