What's The Next Bubble?

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Re: What's The Next Bubble?

Post by Jason »

The problem with India as a democracy is that notions of equality conflict with its entrenched caste system.

Frontline has a documentary on the trade war. I found it to be informative. When their government wants something, it gets done. Fast. And they no longer emulate us. They are doing it their way and the market dependence appears to be turning in their favor. They are four times our size and their middle class is the size of our entire population.

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Re: What's The Next Bubble?

Post by Kriegsspiel »

In the interview with Charlie Munger I posted, he talks about China copying Singapore:
Munger: Who would have guessed the Chinese Communists would have improved their big country as much as they have in the last 30 years?

Interviewer: Did that surprise you?

Munger: Well, they didn't the first 20 years. They had the Cultural Revolution. It was crazy. And now they have one of the greatest success records in the history of mankind. I don't know about you, but I did not predict it.

Interviewer: So what is the secret to China's success?

Munger: They copied Singapore. Remember, the Chinese leader said I don't care whether the cat is black or white, I just care that it catches mice. And they copied a very wonderful, famous Chinese man in Singapore, and lo and behold, they found the right Chinese leadership outside China, which amuses me. But he was Chinese. Look at the way it worked, in the whole history of the world, no nation that big has advanced that fast. And they did it by having a bunch of poor people save half their income. They didn't use the wealth of the rich world to get ahead, they used the savings of poor people. I am a huge admirer of what the Chinese have accomplished. And if you ask me who is the one man who did the most for China, it was Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore. They copied him.

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Re: What's The Next Bubble?

Post by Jason »

I have to agree with Munger. Once you get past the human rights violations, the vomit inducing fish, the hacking of US tech companies, the one child policy and the death clouds making their way across the Pacific, they have done a remarkable job.

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Re: What's The Next Bubble?

Post by chenda »

Right, along with India's intense religiosity and devisiness, and huge linguistic and cultural diversity.

Singapore's semi-free dictatorship may ultimately be copied by Chinese reformers. Free of corruption and crime. They don't shoot dissidents in Singapore, they bankrupt them with libel suits. This is much more civilised.

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Re: What's The Next Bubble?

Post by Capitalism »

I think that we are going to see some sort of deflation/hyperinflation at some point. The interest rates can't be lowered much further without consequences. It can cause deflation, which again can lead to hyperinflation. This will end up crashing currencies.

Also, if rates are getting higher than they are now (which is a public goal for FED + ECB), asset prices should drop as investors will see bonds as more attractive than already inflated stocks (the thesis is here that investors money will flow towards the place of the best risk/reward based return). The nearly only option would then be to print money to try and save the economy once again by high inflation, which will crash existing currencies.

Buying bitcoin is might not such a bad idea after all...

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Re: What's The Next Bubble?

Post by Jean »

As anyone bought monero yet?

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