Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

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prognastat
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by prognastat »

@Clarice

I don't think daylen's list is meant for selling in the event of the world ending, but rather to save them for then to go out with a bang.
Last edited by prognastat on Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Kriegsspiel
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Kriegsspiel »

"Forgetting women" still applies.

daylen
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by daylen »

I was thinking that the list could be used to start a militia + drug cartel. Tobacco and meth could be made later once I stabilize my territory and people start cheering up enough to do taxable labor. After that the women and luxury food items would generate themselves.

The golden addition is a hedge in case some other militia is scarier than mine.


intellectualpersuit
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by intellectualpersuit »

Woah there Daylen, not too fast.

I notice you haven't posted in a while and my mind jumps to the worst of conclusions. Irrationally.

You will need some means to find such power. That will be through me. I can and will endure the suffering required to set up an environment conducive for your reign. Though as such, it will be through me as the frontman and you as the mastermind.

Oh, and the hedge: a fight to the death, hand-to-hand, leader against leader, me against rival militia man. I will be training. You will be safe. Scary enough? Probably more BS post-apocalyptic action movie like.

prognastat
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by prognastat »

I would warn Daylen that it isn't uncommon for the intellectual leader to be usurped by the physically dominating right hand...

daylen
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by daylen »

In reality, I would continuously travel on the edge of forests and cities waiting for one militia to claim dominance of an expansive geographical area allowing for the emergence of a city-state. If foraging and raiding becomes unreliable, then I would start hunting small game. Eventually, I would join the city-state and become a master carpenter developing my own postmodern style of architecture which utilizes scavenging, promotes energy efficiency, and does not require adhesives. I would inscribe number theory, functional analysis, classical mechanics, quantum mechanics, statistical mechanics, and general relativity inside the walls of the grand temple. This is after I start my own religion by meditating for 40 days and predicting what crops will survive the rapidly changing climate patterns.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

IlliniDave wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:50 am
I'm starting to more seriously consider alternatives to my ER relocation plan. I've baked in moving back to Illinois from the start.

.....

tax hike would be paired with an increase in state spending, borrowing a large amount of money, and temporarily skipping payments into state-funded pensions. In other words, from my simple-minded way of looking at things, their solution for the mess they are in is to replicate the behavior that got them into the mess in the first place.

The state has the distinction of consistently placing near the top of the list of states that are bleeding population.

.....

I'm not sure I want to share the risk of a state whose financial situation is marching aggressively towards catastrophe.
Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:45 am
While interest rates are artificially low and asset prices are artificially high, take out as much fixed rate debt as you can against the house and load up on gold. Then watch as the exploding federal deficit, entitlements, and the portion of the population unwilling to work cause the price of gold to appreciate faster than the interest you are paying on your mortgage at some point over the next 20-30 years.
Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:12 pm
The idea is not to rent. It is to own (or borrow, if you prefer to insist that by taking out a mortgage I do not own the house), with a fixed monthly mortgage payment (mine is at less than 4% interest). Analog-Bitcoin has appreciated on average more than 7% nominal per annum since the analog-Bitcoin standard ended. I think 7% per annum moving forward will be on the low side, given exploding deficits, Social Security and Medicare insolvency, the emergence of socialism and MMT, etc.

Yes, there is a risk. Real estate is a risk asset. Analog-bitcoin can be stolen. I prefer this risk to the VTSAX risk. I am not FI and I am not banking on the long-term returns of the stock market or entitlements. I have to invest based on the math and what I know of people. Risk cannot be eliminated, only transmuted.

As one might advise someone considering a move to the most insolvent state of Illinois, a house paid in cash does not look so great when the state is drooling to tax the bejesus out of property owners to cover bankrupt pension systems. A paid off house is stress-free from a mortgage interest standpoint but is also a sitting duck for the state.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

daylen wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:20 am
Does your religion require your adherents to provide you with virgins or would you be able to become a “close advisor” to the widowed queen, whose husband’s death you may or may not have had something to do with?

IlliniDave
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by IlliniDave »

MI, for me the "stress" of renting a house is being subject to having to move at a time of the landlord's choosing. Cash versus mortgage doesn't make much of a difference (given I could pay off the mortgage at any time). A mortgage is just more expensive unless one had confidence they could consistently earn more investing the mortgage balance than they are paying in interest. Real estate always bears some risk of rising tax rates, since most people buy based on how big of a PI+tax/insurance escrow they can afford. Buying into a market already depressed by burdensome tax rates reduces the downside somewhat should one opt to sell and flee. For that reason I tend not to consider real estate I occupy as any sort of investment, it's just a pile of money occupied by providing me a home.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

I do not consider precious metals to be an “investment” either, just old school money/rich man’s money. Whether you are living in a property or renting it out, the same principles apply. It all falls underneath the umbrella of capital allocation.

daylen
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by daylen »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:17 am
I suppose I would wear a mask when performing religious ceremonies. This would allow me to sneak out of the city with my secret underground tunnel system to knock up a few oblivious barbarian chicks that I exiled for adultery. Should be easy enough to pose as a weekend rebel leader plotting to overthrow my own theocracy. Once the balance tips out of my favor, I plant a Trojan horse in the grand temple and find a successor to fake my own death. I could use my new hero status to get a foothold in the market then build a conglomerate that enforces the use of a blockchain currency to moderate political power across the LAN while drinking homemade wine in my own playboy fortress on the edge of town.

intellectualpersuit
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by intellectualpersuit »

Ah yes, but now I know your plan, so I will de-mask you at a religious ceremony so that your plan will foil.


Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

The End Of Money

https://www.peakprosperity.com/the-end-of-money-3/
Riggerjack wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:00 pm
So how do we account for this? There seems to be a disconnect between GDP and productivity.

.....

We have the magic wand to fix the economy. We call it QE!

But there's always a catch.

.....

And that is why I object to the use of GDP in this way. The increase in GDP over actual increase in productive assets is an artifact of how we measure GDP. Our productivity hasn't increased, we are merely diluting the unit of measure.

Yes, higher costs of living are associated with higher incomes. But how much of that higher income goes to higher costs. And is making a landlord richer the goal of our economic policy? Should it be? Are we all richer because the landlord is richer?

.....

How does this income distribution affect urbanization/traffic/development/real estate costs? Are these reinforcing feedback loops, or balancing feedback loops? And what would change that?
Ego wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 11:19 pm
Hong Kong, Chile, Spain, Ecuador, UK, Indonesia, Iraq, France, Haiti, Egypt, Malawi, Haiti, Russia, Bolivia, South Korea...

Typically these things happen in the spring, not the fall. What is going on? Do they have anything in common? Are they having any impact on their intended targets? Any thoughts if this will peter out or spread like the Arab Spring?
jacob wrote:
Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:23 am
Much of the rest appears to be individual counter-reactions to the emergence/rise of illiberal/corrupt democracies over the past decade. There also seems to be more protests in the US these years than there used to be.

.....

A third factor is the ever increasing number of refugees, currently standing at ~50-60 million world wide but set to increase to ~500+ million over the next 50 years as food supplies and countries start collapsing especially after the middle of this century. This would tend to drive things towards nationalism and authoritarianism which again increases tension between the two forces mentioned above.

Way I see it is more like a very slow contagion that will eventually consume the world. It's not going to fizzle or explode exponentially. It's just going to affect more and more countries. Some more than others.
Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:40 pm
BRUTE’s old remark that the central bankers have physics penis envy no longer applies. They know it doesn’t work. It’s about perpetuating power and postponing hard decisions. At best we outsourced the fiat bubble contagion to China post-2008 so as to ensure that everyone goes down with us.

It’s about loss of trust. Having to put something in a mattress is because the banking system is untrustworthy. If you put cash in a bank account they inflate it away. If you take it out they make you feel like a criminal, because you are supposed to let them steal it from you slowly at first, then suddenly all at once. The GenXers went all-in and got their faces ripped off in the tech bubble. The Boomers tried to make up for a lifetime of irresponsibility and got their faces ripped off in the housing bubble. Soon the Millennials will have their faces ripped off. The system is designed to rip your face off. The bankers of old were men of prudence who only survived with proper risk control. The bankers of today are finance bros stealing from America’s retirement fund because as the WSP say “You are obligated to no one.” I have to trust myself, the system has proven itself wholly untrustworthy.

The Romans observed in their decline that their trading partners no longer accepted materials or goods, only hard currency. The Denarius was hard at first and soon enough it was worthless.(*) That you can no longer have an interest bearing account in that currency is a symptom of decline. Government bonds are great in a hard standard because you’re skimming off the top of Manifest Destiny. The tech bubble wasn’t just the buying opportunity of a lifetime for an asset, it was the opportunity to sell the top in Peak America. The current imbalance is still great enough to present an exploitable opportunity worthy of Harry Browne. Great for students of history and human nature, terrible for people who believe what they are told.

(*)Note in the graph the gentle slope under the Antonines. This was engineered by the Five Good Emperors to last longer, but not to last. The decline had already begun.

I would think an 8-shot Ruger Redhawk .357 magnum revolver will retain its value more than the paper you use to pay for it, and has the potential for great marginal utility.

Riggerjack
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Riggerjack »

You know, MI, I think you will be much happier when you get over this idea of yours that money is real, or represents value, or that these values can be preserved.

Money is not real. Money has never been real. The closer to real, the less well it works as a currency.

I don't know what level they are playing at, but it's not checkers, trust me. The pieces look like chess pieces, but move in odd ways. You seem to be calling a game of checkers, though. That must be alarming.

Try using a new framework.

Try thinking of dollars like skiball tokens. Now, emotionally disconnected, what games does the Fed play, and does it look like you thought?

Go back and read what I wrote in 2012. I used to agree with you. Now I don't. When I tell you that you are barking up the wrong tree, it's because I have already checked it out. You are reacting to a decoy.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

I think that the panic post-2008 was halted because the Baby Boomers got together and convinced (re:lied to) themselves that everything was ok. And enough people younger than them, being people (and therefore wanting to be told what to think), have been easily led to believe that everything is ok.

It’s very easy to make these declarations of victory after only a few years.

“The 4 % rule works, pay it respect.”

“I thought the result of QE would lead to hyperinflation, but after 10 years it hasn’t, so it won’t.”

“We went off the gold standard 50 years ago and won’t automagically revert to such a standard, so I’m content to harvest incremental gains from my continuous short volatility strategy from now until eternity.”(*)

(*)As if 50 years of public policy renders 5,000 years of ubiquitous market activity obsolete.

If you continue to pull an elastic band back and it has not broken, that does not mean you can pull it back forever without it not breaking back or breaking completely. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

I perfectly understand that post-WWII growth and the post-WWII middle class prosperity was a never-seen-before historical anomaly that perhaps can never be restored, because Peak Oil, climate change, and so many other things. So cackling “Long Live the Oligarchy!” is a perfectly rationale strategy. We’ll see how that strategy works out.

My recollection of watching films featuring Satan shows that his followers are disposed of once they are no longer useful.

If the price of money is unknowable because it is intentionally a lie, it is no great leap to conclude that all of our interactions are lies as we deal with each other in bad faith, and we are all just avatars, or avatars of avatars, speaking past one another. In which case I have license to laugh at everyone and whatever pretensions they have. Because per such rule we already have already agreed that everything is a lie. I’m looking forward to seeing the new Joker film.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Wow, I just watched Joker at the theatre. Straight up inciting violence against rich people. This is the type of shit that keeps Dalio up at night, concocting new PR strategies.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/11/03/worl ... index.html

https://www.rt.com/news/472541-joker-mo ... zizek/amp/

Riggerjack
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Riggerjack »

MI

What happens when the Fed game is over? When they play their games as long as they can, and the dollar collapses?

Do we all just die and someone else will settle the land?

Do we all look at each other, realize we have all been lying, enter into an existential crisis, and finish our days in depressed drum circles?

Or do we make scapegoats of a few politicians, and bankers, and build a new system, or perhaps borrow another. Maybe switch to the Canadian dollar.

Sure, dollar denominated assets are toast. But productive assets are still productive.

I think it's the third option. And if it's the third option, how much effort is the right amount to spend trying to get people to believe that it is possible, and change their behaviors towards preventing it? How much is the right amount to spend on mitigation?

Methinks you are too caught up in one possible failure mode for our society. It's just one of many, and I don't think it's going to fail in the way or as fast as you seem to believe. How much do you think I should worry about the death of a fiat currency? It's just money, man. They will make more.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Sure, the game is about avoiding irrevocable capital destruction. Otherwise when I go to work I am just in service of someone else but not myself.

The Nikkei peaked in 1989, regardless of how much money they print. That’s massive capital destruction before even factoring in inflation. So the important question is, where are the productive assets at a fair price? Consumer staple stocks have price/earnings ratios that resemble high-growth tech stocks. It would take 30-50 years to recoup the initial investment in the form of dividends. Unless you want to chase high yield and if anything is high yield in this ZIRP environment, it’s because the market knows it is shite.

The Cantillon Effect means that as a worker I am the last to receive newly printed money and so I have no choice but to invest backwards. I’m not going to buy into another bubble.

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