Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

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prognastat
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by prognastat » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:39 pm

@Clarice

I don't think daylen's list is meant for selling in the event of the world ending, but rather to save them for then to go out with a bang.
Last edited by prognastat on Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Kriegsspiel
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:01 pm

"Forgetting women" still applies.

daylen
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by daylen » Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:28 am

I was thinking that the list could be used to start a militia + drug cartel. Tobacco and meth could be made later once I stabilize my territory and people start cheering up enough to do taxable labor. After that the women and luxury food items would generate themselves.

The golden addition is a hedge in case some other militia is scarier than mine.


intellectualpersuit
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by intellectualpersuit » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:31 pm

Woah there Daylen, not too fast.

I notice you haven't posted in a while and my mind jumps to the worst of conclusions. Irrationally.

You will need some means to find such power. That will be through me. I can and will endure the suffering required to set up an environment conducive for your reign. Though as such, it will be through me as the frontman and you as the mastermind.

Oh, and the hedge: a fight to the death, hand-to-hand, leader against leader, me against rival militia man. I will be training. You will be safe. Scary enough? Probably more BS post-apocalyptic action movie like.

prognastat
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by prognastat » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:15 am

I would warn Daylen that it isn't uncommon for the intellectual leader to be usurped by the physically dominating right hand...

daylen
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by daylen » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:20 am

In reality, I would continuously travel on the edge of forests and cities waiting for one militia to claim dominance of an expansive geographical area allowing for the emergence of a city-state. If foraging and raiding becomes unreliable, then I would start hunting small game. Eventually, I would join the city-state and become a master carpenter developing my own postmodern style of architecture which utilizes scavenging, promotes energy efficiency, and does not require adhesives. I would inscribe number theory, functional analysis, classical mechanics, quantum mechanics, statistical mechanics, and general relativity inside the walls of the grand temple. This is after I start my own religion by meditating for 40 days and predicting what crops will survive the rapidly changing climate patterns.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:15 am

IlliniDave wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:50 am
I'm starting to more seriously consider alternatives to my ER relocation plan. I've baked in moving back to Illinois from the start.

.....

tax hike would be paired with an increase in state spending, borrowing a large amount of money, and temporarily skipping payments into state-funded pensions. In other words, from my simple-minded way of looking at things, their solution for the mess they are in is to replicate the behavior that got them into the mess in the first place.

The state has the distinction of consistently placing near the top of the list of states that are bleeding population.

.....

I'm not sure I want to share the risk of a state whose financial situation is marching aggressively towards catastrophe.
Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:45 am
While interest rates are artificially low and asset prices are artificially high, take out as much fixed rate debt as you can against the house and load up on gold. Then watch as the exploding federal deficit, entitlements, and the portion of the population unwilling to work cause the price of gold to appreciate faster than the interest you are paying on your mortgage at some point over the next 20-30 years.
Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:12 pm
The idea is not to rent. It is to own (or borrow, if you prefer to insist that by taking out a mortgage I do not own the house), with a fixed monthly mortgage payment (mine is at less than 4% interest). Analog-Bitcoin has appreciated on average more than 7% nominal per annum since the analog-Bitcoin standard ended. I think 7% per annum moving forward will be on the low side, given exploding deficits, Social Security and Medicare insolvency, the emergence of socialism and MMT, etc.

Yes, there is a risk. Real estate is a risk asset. Analog-bitcoin can be stolen. I prefer this risk to the VTSAX risk. I am not FI and I am not banking on the long-term returns of the stock market or entitlements. I have to invest based on the math and what I know of people. Risk cannot be eliminated, only transmuted.

As one might advise someone considering a move to the most insolvent state of Illinois, a house paid in cash does not look so great when the state is drooling to tax the bejesus out of property owners to cover bankrupt pension systems. A paid off house is stress-free from a mortgage interest standpoint but is also a sitting duck for the state.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:17 am

daylen wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:20 am
Does your religion require your adherents to provide you with virgins or would you be able to become a “close advisor” to the widowed queen, whose husband’s death you may or may not have had something to do with?

IlliniDave
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by IlliniDave » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:35 am

MI, for me the "stress" of renting a house is being subject to having to move at a time of the landlord's choosing. Cash versus mortgage doesn't make much of a difference (given I could pay off the mortgage at any time). A mortgage is just more expensive unless one had confidence they could consistently earn more investing the mortgage balance than they are paying in interest. Real estate always bears some risk of rising tax rates, since most people buy based on how big of a PI+tax/insurance escrow they can afford. Buying into a market already depressed by burdensome tax rates reduces the downside somewhat should one opt to sell and flee. For that reason I tend not to consider real estate I occupy as any sort of investment, it's just a pile of money occupied by providing me a home.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:55 am

I do not consider precious metals to be an “investment” either, just old school money/rich man’s money. Whether you are living in a property or renting it out, the same principles apply. It all falls underneath the umbrella of capital allocation.

daylen
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by daylen » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:43 pm

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:17 am
I suppose I would wear a mask when performing religious ceremonies. This would allow me to sneak out of the city with my secret underground tunnel system to knock up a few oblivious barbarian chicks that I exiled for adultery. Should be easy enough to pose as a weekend rebel leader plotting to overthrow my own theocracy. Once the balance tips out of my favor, I plant a Trojan horse in the grand temple and find a successor to fake my own death. I could use my new hero status to get a foothold in the market then build a conglomerate that enforces the use of a blockchain currency to moderate political power across the LAN while drinking homemade wine in my own playboy fortress on the edge of town.

intellectualpersuit
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Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Post by intellectualpersuit » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:27 pm

Ah yes, but now I know your plan, so I will de-mask you at a religious ceremony so that your plan will foil.

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