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Inverted yield curve

Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:59 pm
by Dream of Freedom
:o The spread between the 2 and 10 year treasuries is just 0.11% right now. Do you think we will have an inverted yield curve soon?

https://ycharts.com/indicators/210_year ... eld_spread

Re: Inverted yield curve

Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:05 pm
by 2Birds1Stone
It's possible.

The rest of 2018 will get uglier. I can't see 2019 being much better as the velocity of degradation increases.

Re: Inverted yield curve

Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:08 pm
by jacob
The spread was ~0.3% when the Fed rate was 1.75-2.00% and it's 0.11% as it's 2.00-2.25% and believed to go to 2.25-2.50% shortly. A couple of more hikes are expected in 2019. The real question is what can heavily indebted debtors (like the ARMs and the US government) afford to refinance at? At this magnitude of money, it's not like the sellers won't come down to meet the desperate borrowers in order to keep them alive for a while longer.

The Gundlach reference that the Fed are going to keep hiking until (paraphrased) "onething" breaks makes a lot of sense to me. I see a lot more "stupid" being perpetrated now (compared to two years ago)... borrowing to invest---doing a carry trade between cheap junk debt and expensive junk equity because the latter always goes up. I can see why the Fed would want to build powder while at the same time discouraging more greater fool approaches. It solves two problems at the same time.

Re: Inverted yield curve

Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:34 pm
by Augustus
I just read about 1.6 trillion in corporate debt that needs to be refinanced in the next 3 years, anyone placing bets on what happens then?

Re: Inverted yield curve

Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:12 am
by Gilberto de Piento
Another sign pointing to a possible recession. Anyone getting nervous yet? Or are you excited, hoping to buy assets on sale? Personally, If the market tanks or moves sideways for a long time it may be difficult for me to be as excited about investing.

Re: Inverted yield curve

Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:15 am
by 2Birds1Stone
Eh, with the current plan of only working FT for a handful of years.......I would prefer a sharp drop and slow rise back to new highs =P

Sitting on 33% of my NW in Liquid CD's/MM funds and grabbing the popcorn for now.

Re: Inverted yield curve

Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:10 pm
by Augustus
Gilberto de Piento wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:12 am
Another sign pointing to a possible recession. Anyone getting nervous yet? Or are you excited, hoping to buy assets on sale? Personally, If the market tanks or moves sideways for a long time it may be difficult for me to be as excited about investing.
I'm looking to buy a house in a very overpriced area in the next 2-3 years, I'll probably buy regardless just to lock something in (I hate moving, and that seems to be a constant with rentals), but I am really hoping I can wait out the insanity and get a deal.

That said, who knows? Debt is at record highs everywhere I look, so it seems like someone is going to have to pay the piper at some point, especially with interest rates rising. I am very curious what the interest rates are going to do to the real estate market. By my reasoning, anyone who bought a house with a minimal down payment in the last 3 years is now underwater or will be soon as interest rates continue to rise. So it may be that they all just stay put and are stuck for the next 10 years, or it may be that jobs contract and they start losing them. Could also be that people start walking away at some point just from being demoralized that they are underwater? I don't know. I knew a few people who walked away from houses they were underwater in during the last crash, because they hated being stuck, even though if they had waited 10 years they would have been okay.

I am also curious if the real estate market is still warped from the last bubble. I wonder if a larger percentage of home owners are going to stay in their homes for the long term which would decrease supply instead of swapping them out more often. It seems like anyone who bought in the 70s-early 2000s did extremely well in real estate because interest rates were crazy high then dropped, and the trend was that they traded up using their gains every so often. My generation is on the flip side of that, interest rates will either remain stable/low or go up, because they can't go any lower than they have been. I don't foresee wages skyrocketing in the next 10-20 years either. Maybe real estate is a losing game in the long term right now?

Re: Inverted yield curve

Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:17 pm
by Mister Imperceptible
Real estate is definitely warped. I do not think it is necessarily a losing game if you wait a few years before buying. The steady-as-she-goes upward housing market is over- long live the boom/bust cycles.

Re: Inverted yield curve

Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:26 pm
by Gilberto de Piento
It seems like it depends a lot in the local market too.

Re: Inverted yield curve

Posted: Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:35 am
by Peanut
Local market definitely a primary factor but I read an article about RE prices having reached a point where a lot of buyers are just not having it anymore so now especially a lot of properties in high COL areas are just sitting there. I see this in my area. Prices plateaued in 2014 but some realtors haven’t gotten the message yet.


Some say we’re already in a bear market and don’t know it yet. I like trading volatile markets but am approaching with caution lest I get caught on the way down.

Re: Inverted yield curve

Posted: Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:18 am
by 2Birds1Stone
Houses here are still selling over listing price in a matter of days.