1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

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Stahlmann
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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by Stahlmann » Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:19 pm

Whoa.. :shock: this is even deeper than my militiant antinatalism after my first depression episode...this could be good not one liner in my collection why I am so cheap :lol:

Is there any movie adaptation of such monologue?
Like this "The selfish act" - Antinatalist scene in 'Utopia (2014)'
Last edited by Stahlmann on Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jacob
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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by jacob » Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:23 pm

@Bankai - In many cases people choose to self-destruct (see Russia in the 1990s, Japan now, Europe somewhat, poor Americans especially). In other cases, you're figuratively beating people away from your [now on an absolute scale luxurious 1+ jacob lifestyle] lifeboat with an oar due to lack of lifestyle-room. (See the ME now and US on the flip side). Investing in stuff like tobacco helps both groups. Some people die happy so that others may live.

People often ask me about how to invest ethically. This is the kind of ethics that guides my investments. It's not a wonderful world, but given the circumstances, it seems like the best choice. I suppose it's a Kantian approach?! Minimize total pain.

@Stahlman - Well, if history is any guide, give it 10-20 years(*) and maybe MSM will pick up on it... until then...

(*) No different from FIRE really.

classical_Liberal
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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by classical_Liberal » Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:57 pm

@jacob
Now my interest is piqued. I always assumed your "COL" was the end result of trial and error regarding when cash economy was much more efficient than DIY/social capital plus "head tax". IOW, obviously it makes more sense to purchase a used computer than it does to fabricate parts to build your own new computer. So occasional computer purchases where inevitable.

Now it seems you had a specific number in mind re sustainability. Care to elaborate how "1 Jacob" came about?

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Bankai
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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by Bankai » Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:59 pm

@jacob

So the assumption is that smoking and dying is a choice while not being able to consume due to pie not being big enough, isn't.

However, does this not also assume that all humans are rational, that all humans have full (or at least sufficient to make an informed decision) information available, that it's in principle possible for everyone to break the habit reinforced by upbringing and environment?

Or does the fact that some humans are simply not able to quit/make a rational, informed decision not change the argument at all, and it should be assumed that these humans die for greater good?

Also, have people of Japan and Russia voted to self-destruct and then proceeded to execute their plan? Or is it that they just happened to be born in countries run not in their best interest?

classical_Liberal
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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by classical_Liberal » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:00 pm

Also, I agree CPI is not the best indicator of ERE inflation. However, trying to create a separate indicator would be a monumental task, so CPI is close enough for my tastes. If its good enough to calculate my personal real returns... it'll do.

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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by jacob » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:15 pm

@cL - World GDP/capita in dollars / human ecological footprint/capita measured in planets => ~$10k two decades ago. Now it's less. At this point (2018) I might even be part of the problem rather than the solution.

@Bankai - I think of it as building lifeboats. Those who live a lifestyle of fiddling while Rome burns (whether deliberately or ignorantly) better die sooner rather than later in order to make more room. WRT, I don't mind investing in tobacco. It's a Darwinian selection process at this point :| As far as "the people" ... most don't really care to know anything about anything anyway. You're familiar with how to deal with how to try to save people who are drowning but haven't bothered to learn how to swim? It's a sucky procedure. But it is what it is. Eventually, some have to be let go. Sucks. But what can you do?

sky
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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by sky » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:17 pm

The J should be defined as 100 L's, where 1 L =

https://rainydayfoods.com/lentils-50lb.html

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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by Jean » Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:00 am

Varg vigernes seems to have the same opinion as i do. I share it to. I wouldn't really like to bridge the gaps beetween pagan tribalists, communal environmentalists, and ere. They all seem to grasp the problem correctly on one side of it.

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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by Desert » Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:47 am

On a possibly related note, I'm currently investigating the idea of maintaining our current nominal spending as the years pass, as a sort of "productivity improvement," to use corporate lingo. The inflation will be real, but we'll continuously reduce in other areas to retain the same annual total spend (or as close as possible). Obviously this likely is not possible for someone living at the single-J level, but we're well above that right now.

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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by jacob » Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:00 am

@Desert - It was possible for me going from 2001 (and probably before that---I wasn't counting) to 2017, but 2018 broke me with hikes in RE taxes and insurance. Anyhow ... that's how YMOYL worked in practice with the treasury strategy. (See the 1998 update.)

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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by Desert » Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:10 am

@jacob, it's been so long since I read YMOYL, I forgot that was part of the strategy. I do remember the 100% treasury strategy though.
Anyway, yeah, it seems that once the fat is gone in one's spending, it's just not possible to continue this strategy unless fundamentals are changed (roommates, etc.). It's pretty amazing you were able to do it from 2001 to 2017 though! I'll let you know how long we can do it.

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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by jacob » Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:21 am

I don't think it was deliberately part of it. However, due to the rolling LT bonds, the nominal payout would be the same year after year. $6000 went a lot further in 1970 than it did in 1998, so they would have had to increase efficiency along the way.

Desert
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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by Desert » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:45 am

Ah, yeah that makes sense. I think I remember the book counted on 6% from treasuries, which you'd put on your wall chart and wait for it to cross the expense line. Equities were too risky. Good stuff.

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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by McTrex » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:54 pm

@Jacob,

Your spending level is at most a proxy for your impact, right?

If I were to start cutting your hair and you were to start cutting mine and we’d both charge each other 1000$ for each monthly haircut, we’d both be spending a lot more, but the extra impact on world resources would be zero.

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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by jacob » Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:21 pm

Yes and no.

In lieu of anything better, "raw spending" is a really good proxy for actual impact. For example, buying a used Honda has much less impact than buying a new Prius even though the latter has higher MPG. Dollar cost summarizes the weight of the entire supply chain that brought [whatever consumer] goods into one's hands regardless of how it arrived there.

The market is semi-good at gauging the actual resource load.

My dollar-spending is low because I do eliminate a lot of extraneous resource waste. In fact, successful ERE could be (actually is) defined as an efficient systems design that eliminates friction (which requires dollar spending) as much as possible. In that sense, dollar spending is precisely properly to systems design incompetence. For example, a lot of the furniture I build contains remade/upcycled wood from other projects. Normal consumers would toss it into a landfill and replace it with other things built from virgin materials.

The market gauge does fail in some cases. For example the hair cutting example. If I cook my own dinner, it goes unmeasured by the market/GDP. However if I arrange with someone else so we cook for each other, then it counts as GDP. As such much behavior goes unmeasured. However, the stuff that is measured is in many ways the kind of behavior that is highly inefficient ... e.g. outsourcing trivial stuff to strangers.

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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by black_son_of_gray » Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:58 pm

I'm wondering how much all of these numbers are influenced by rent-seeking, and how much rent-seeking has changed over the last couple decades (increasing?).

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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by jacob » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:06 pm

A lot ... financialization(*) has increased prices within the the FIRE sector since the 1980s. Here FIRE now means something different: Finance, Insurance, REal estate. Basically whatever can be turned into a financial instrument. This includes education and health care. All these have become much more expensive.

There's a cynical joke in the other FIRE community about how investing is all about "turning consumers into dependable cash flows".

Step back for a moment in order to notice how much you no longer own but are now replacing with a subscription service of some kind. Cloud, smarthpone, uber, amazon prime, ... *light bulb?*

(*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financialization ... and the popularization of the 4% rule and index investing. Sometimes I just want to give up on humans ... :(

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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by prognastat » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:19 pm

jacob wrote:
Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:06 pm
Step back for a moment in order to notice how much you no longer own but are now replacing with a subscription service of some kind. Cloud, smarthpone, uber, amazon prime, ... *light bulb?*
Because to own something you only pay once, if something becomes a service you can constantly be charged. For a business being able to constantly charge you is much more attractive.

Laura Ingalls
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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by Laura Ingalls » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:49 pm

CS wrote:
Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:37 pm
It looked like regular folks. They were shocked. At least one local congress person wanted to change the rules to eliminate that, but I'm not sure if anything ever happened. https://www.twincities.com/2016/02/15/m ... -care-act/
It looks like it was repealed
Grassroots resistance to '55 clawback' for older Minnesota Medicaid recipients seeks federal response | Duluth News Tribune

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Re: 1 Jacob Adjusted For Inflation (JAFI)

Post by CS » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:53 pm

@Laura Ingalls

Thanks for the information. Good to know.

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