Le Rouge et le Noir - Daniel Amerman Edition: Asset Class Based Investing in a Federal Reserve Dominated World

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Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 830
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Le Rouge et le Noir - Daniel Amerman Edition: Asset Class Based Investing in a Federal Reserve Dominated World

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:32 pm

Fond though I am of Stendhal, I dug up this jewel of a quant and his website. I am reading every article voraciously.

His thesis is that in a Federal Reserve dominated environment, we are going to experience cycles of crisis and containment of crisis. I want to point to multiple articles, but anyone interested can go down the rabbit hole with me.

http://danielamerman.com/aHome.htm

http://danielamerman.com/Products/RedBlackBrochure.pdf

trfie
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2015 12:35 am

Re: Le Rouge et le Noir - Daniel Amerman Edition: Asset Class Based Investing in a Federal Reserve Dominated World

Post by trfie » Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:43 pm

Not very trenchant, is he? One could spend months going through the material. I wouldn't mind dividing it up among a large group of ppl and then each person summarizes her part. A group of us used to do it in school when there was too much reading material for a class. Our group always got the highest marks compared to anyone trying to read everything himself.



technohead
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:23 am

Re: Le Rouge et le Noir - Daniel Amerman Edition: Asset Class Based Investing in a Federal Reserve Dominated World

Post by technohead » Fri Jan 25, 2019 4:50 pm

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:32 pm
Fond though I am of Stendhal, I dug up this jewel of a quant and his website. I am reading every article voraciously.
You mean the classical French novelist? I read The Red And The Black, one of my favourites.
His thesis is that in a Federal Reserve dominated environment, we are going to experience cycles of crisis and containment of crisis. I want to point to multiple articles, but anyone interested can go down the rabbit hole with me.
Completely agree. One blog I follow is predicting ZIRP to go into effect in the near future as positive interest rate cycles have now expired. It's all down hill from here into negative interest rate territory. Of course us proles won't see any free money. No, that goes to all those high performance car collectors in their Hampton mansion or on their super yacht parked up at the marina in Monaco. The rest of us get smashed down into 3rd World status.

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 830
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Le Rouge et le Noir - Daniel Amerman Edition: Asset Class Based Investing in a Federal Reserve Dominated World

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:06 pm

Yes, I have a bit of Julien Sorel in me.

It will be interesting to see if we can see NIRP in the USA. Unlike the gilets jaunes who must resort to using cobblestones and billiard balls against riot police, the Americans have firearms- over 300 million of them. There is a great danger.

One thing I have been hearing from a lot of macro analysts and hedge fund traders like Ray Dalio is their sudden concern with “social unrest and populism.” Because they are not sure the hoi polloi will put up with QE 4 5 6 7 8 9 etc.... so persons like Dalio who have profited disproportionately from the financialization and gameification of the economy are publishing lists of “principles” and lessons on how master the market cycle. As if to say “See, I am a nice guy, I’m trying to pay it forward, please do not drag me from my mansion and kill me!”

I cannot say I am categorically opposed myself to the high performance cars or the super yachts. I find the AOC gimme-gimme types as distasteful as the banksters. It just appears to me that we are at a point where the system starts to cannibalize itself.

The ouroboros.

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