Investments Trade Log

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Andy Dufresne
Posts: 25
Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2015 3:03 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Andy Dufresne »

Smart move on AAPL IMO Lemur - think its going to run into earnings and approach its ATH by the end of April. Only reason it hasn't gone up stronger is weak volume ... I'm personally long some calls, so take my optimism with a grain of salt.

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Lemur
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Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

1.) MAC $17 CCs expired worthless today. Thanks for the cheese market. Ready to set up another one next Monday for same strike price. Turns out this company has terrible management and I wish I never bought it. Long story short - they diluted shares to pay off their debt and gain liquidity (fine) but then they issue another press release with a small bullet point (like a foot note on a tv commercial) that they have another ATM for 2022 to dilute another 300 million shares. I get this - just incase COVID surge happens again and they're in a pinch again...but ugh. idk. I'm balancing between should I wait to break even or is this just sunk cost fallacy - but history has taught me as soon as I let these shares go...stock price is going to go up. I'll wait till earnings again to re-evaluate.

2.) My PLTR cash-secured puts expire 4/23. Strike price is $23. Current stock price is $22.45. Coming down to the final bell if I get assigned or not. I've been wheeling PLTR since last November.

3.) I'm still very very bullish on NOK despite being down so much. Nothing but positive PR on this company for weeks on end and they're starting to really gain 5G market-share with governments and companies steering away from China's Huawei.

4.) Not having crypto fomo but lately reading about dogecoin millionaires makes me very jealous lol. :lol: Here I am doing value investing, options trading, and reading 10-Qs on the weekends on various stocks meanwhile Zoomer takes out a student loan, puts it all in crapcoin like its Vegas or something and comes out ahead haha. j/k not really jealous but I do wonder if the means justify the ends ... maybe they just really understand the technology and realize fintech will change the future? Probably not though...well maybe idk. This whole thing is madness! Now I know I'm getting old because I simply don't get it. Like my Grandfather asked us a week ago if the pictures fill up on smartphone do you just have to buy a new smartphone when you reach the limit....

Redo
Posts: 48
Joined: Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:30 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Redo »

It's the Elon Musk effect. Dogecoin isn't about fintech, it's just hype and memes.
I think crypto as a whole has a bright future, especially ETH.
At the end of the day, it's not about how you invest: fundamentals, technicals, dogecoin, doesn't matter. There is no right way of investing, It's all about taking advantage of psychology.

giskard
Posts: 233
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:07 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Updates: buying calls on drive manufacturers ($STX, $WDC it's a duopoly) because of hard drive shortages and huge price increases. I think it's possible this will be noticed and could be medium term in length 3-6 months?.

Every other computer component has had shortages and price increases recently except for HDD and SSDs (until now). I'm seeing 20 to 50% price increases on mass storage. Because the semiconductor shortage eventually has to hit here too, right?

I'm putting about 10 or 20k into this trade, not super big position and expecting it to play out quickly?

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Lemur
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Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Sold 10 PLTR PUTS for $23 strike price expiring end of the week. I chose my strike price based not on delta but on what strike would give me a 1% or greater return for 1 week. I was given a $240 premium post commissions for holding up $23,000. So 1.04%.

Played some Excel games....Yeah this will add up. I used the premiums to just add to my positions that I think could have short-term run ups.

In other news, MAC is up 4% and actually looks like it is generating a upward trend. All my investments are up in this bull market...hitting all time highs in net-worth again.

giskard
Posts: 233
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:07 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Lemur wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 5:45 pm
Sold 10 PLTR PUTS for $23 strike price expiring end of the week. I chose my strike price based not on delta but on what strike would give me a 1% or greater return for 1 week. I was given a $240 premium post commissions for holding up $23,000. So 1.04%.
IV went back down so I stopped messing with PLTR. I think it will run again but for now the hype has died down a bit so I have not messed with it much lately.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@giskard

I had a good run but I gambled not closing that CSP out and have been assigned 1000 shares. Earnings is coming up though by May 11. I've been debating how to play this...leaning towards doing an ITM CC and getting out with a credit.

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Seppia
Posts: 1555
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

I have bought a bit of Clorox and Kimberly Clark, and a month or so ago some Reckitt.
I also have a relatively large position in British American Tobacco I'm not so proud of, but in general I like the idea of setting up inflation hedges (I own very little real estate IRL)

giskard
Posts: 233
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:07 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Lemur wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 10:36 pm
@giskard

I had a good run but I gambled not closing that CSP out and have been assigned 1000 shares. Earnings is coming up though by May 11. I've been debating how to play this...leaning towards doing an ITM CC and getting out with a credit.
I think they will do well, my base expectations is that they will essentially always upside surprise on earnings.

Fundamentally speaking they are basically the only big tech company that is ideologically willing to work with branches of the US military. They are now entrenched will continue to rapidly grow earnings by swallowing up government contracts. Companies like Google with AI expertise actively reject US government military contracts, so Palantir has a special advantage.

giskard
Posts: 233
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:07 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

giskard wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:25 am
Updates: buying calls on drive manufacturers ($STX, $WDC it's a duopoly) because of hard drive shortages and huge price increases. I think it's possible this will be noticed and could be medium term in length 3-6 months?.

Every other computer component has had shortages and price increases recently except for HDD and SSDs (until now). I'm seeing 20 to 50% price increases on mass storage. Because the semiconductor shortage eventually has to hit here too, right?

I'm putting about 10 or 20k into this trade, not super big position and expecting it to play out quickly?
Update: this trade is not going all that well. I was up a lot last week and this week it got crushed after Yellen's comments caused the big selloff Tuesday (which she walked back and if you read the whole interview didn't warrant the selloff anyway).

The new cryptocurrency that uses hard drives is definitely causing at least a temporary shortage and massive price spikes so I will continue to hold this trade & add to it. I think the market is being irrational / does not see this development happening yet. It's going to be as bad as graphics cards with the current demand.

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Lemur
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Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@giskard

I'm down on PLTR in the short-term. Covered call expired but now I'm looking at an unrealized loss. So...this is going to be interesting. Earnings is this Tuesday and I've no idea if this stock is going to fly high or sink more. I could do another CC while IV is high but the greedy side of me doesn't want to cap gains if this stock has the potential to fly.

NOKIA woke from the grave and now is getting analyst upgrades and Jim Cramer. So its rising. I have CC's for $5.50 expiring June 11. If these shares are called away, then I will profit off Nokia. I was down almost $15k at one point!

I have continued to push all aftr-tax savings and premium money into SPG shares.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Ended up doing a CC on PLTR for $23 strike price expiring June 11. Did the trade this morning before the further fall in the underlying.

Ouch on this one. Had I just closed out my CSP last week for $20 instead of letting it hit expiry and being assigned...I would not be looking at a $4.5k loss right now. OTOH, no one could have predicted the sudden drop and I would have looked like a good trader if it went the other way after I was being assigned. Ah well.

I try to remind myself despite the recent trading blunders, I'm up $9k on short positions for this year. I've a ton of paper losses.

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Seppia
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Location: Hong Kong

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Don’t want to be rude or anything, but I would really be weary of any strategy that can fail on “no one could have predicted the sudden drop”.
Because all sudden drops are unpredictable.

In my experience, all of the retail investors that have been writing options have been wiped out sooner or later. It’s the kind of thing that works great until it doesn’t and it goes to zero.
The whole “a long string of very impressive numbers multiplied by a single zero always equals zero” etc etc.
Be careful out there

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Alphaville
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Alphaville »

haha i've been looking at ethereum fly upwards recently and i'm like "oh yeah, i could be doing that" but i'm too busy setting up other systems in my life to get close to that kind of nonsense, and must for now just ogle.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@Seppia

True I think I was just trying to rationalize a poor decision...reality is I just veered from my strategy though. I almost always close out my CSPs and CCs at a profit until I started getting greedy and letting them hit expiry to get out that last bit of profit. Then I got caught pants down.

@Alphaville

Umm...systems. Might be time for me to revisit ERE things. When the market crashes, I don't feel so resilient lol.

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Seppia
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Location: Hong Kong

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Added a bit of MMM during the dip.
I’m not excited investing at these levels in general, but the “problem” with saving so much money is that past a certain cash % it has to go somewhere.

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Alphaville
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Alphaville »

Lemur wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 9:07 am
@Alphaville

Umm...systems. Might be time for me to revisit ERE things. When the market crashes, I don't feel so resilient lol.
yah, money is just one leg of many :D

🕷

Mister Imperceptible
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Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Prepare for adversity and insanity.

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ajcoleman22
Posts: 68
Joined: Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:45 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ajcoleman22 »

Couldn't the "everything bubble" simply be inflation? If everything is a bubble, nothing is a bubble.

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