Investments Trade Log

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bryan
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan » Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:23 pm

Bought EWT in long-term portfolio, driven by wanting more TSMC (TSM on NYSE) exposure, today. I reckon TSMC (and MTK in there too) should benefit as Intel and QCOM decline and RISC-V SoCs will be coming down the pipe, eventually. Intel is down 4.7% after hours atm, seemingly due to missing, slightly, targets for data center market growth. So basically predictions/bets are in line with what I have been thinking. It looks like I closed QCOM just in time, too: up 7% today. Sometimes it's stupid how two companies you think will under-perform are also competitors so price movements in the short-term are in opposite directions.

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Michael_00005
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Michael_00005 » Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:45 pm

net negative to the world's wellbeing
FB is a solid money maker, but i'll put a 4-6 week hold on that one unless it drops into the 160-170 range.
Social media and the internet ended the monopolies of televised news and newspapers so I see it as a mixed bag. People were basically pawns to the few in power who owned these companies and a lot of lies were propagated over the years...it's good to see some of that being corrected.

Strong (US) GDP is expected tomorrow (7/27/18), should be a bump to the markets
Last edited by Michael_00005 on Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Chris
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chris » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:50 am

bryan wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:08 pm
Closed this short position (QCOM) to open a short on INTC.
INTC down 8% so far today. Nice one.

George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:53 am

WDC got pounded for 6.7% this morning.

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Michael_00005
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LX

Post by Michael_00005 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:44 am

Remaining long HCLP positions were closed today, and added a small short position. Now comes the difficult part, staying out of the market (Aug. - Sept.) unless there is a really good deal.

Anyone have an opinion on LX?

--edit-- short position closed after a nice drop (8/3). I would not feel comfortable staying short in oil for a long period, given it's volatility.
Last edited by Michael_00005 on Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:42 pm

Fidelity just announced two 0% fee index funds.

FZROX
FZILX

Bought a little BLK.
Last edited by cmonkey on Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Michael_00005
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Dividend info and Conference Calls

Post by Michael_00005 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:14 pm

This came up in a post a while back, and I figured it might be helpful in the future for those long in dividend stocks.

From listening to earnings Conference Call today for GOV, someone asked a good question on the possibility of dividends being cut. To this the CEO or CFO replied, the dividends are safe for the remainder of the year. I take this as meaning up through the January, 2019 dividend. And then they would again reassess dividends for 2019 in the 1st quarter [for the remainder of that year]. Since dividends play such a major role in stock price, listening in to Conference Calls and even asking the question yourself could be an excellent way to avoid losses, i.e. in regards to dividend stocks.


GOV - “A replay of the conference call will be available through 11:59 p.m. on Thursday, August 9, 2018. To access the replay, dial (412) 317-0088.”

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:33 pm

https://finviz.com/map.ashx just redrew their matrix.

The FAANG whales are getting bigger and bigger as the rest of the market seems to be shrinking.
It would be cool to see an animation of how it has evolved over the years.

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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:06 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-forecast

Highest yoy CPI increase since 2008! Trade wars and tax cuts are beginning to have an impact on main street. Hopefully this guarantees two further interest rate hikes this year (Sep and Dec) which will be good for cash and hopefully bring the market down a bit from the stratosphere while being relatively good for value/low-beta stocks.

Still increasing my cash hoard.

IlliniDave
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by IlliniDave » Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:01 am

One of my chores today is to put in the order to sell ~10% of my US equities which will transact Monday afternoon. No good cash option in my 401k, so it will probably go into some sort of bond fund (limited choices there as well). On the taxable side I've been hesitant to move much out of my MM (where it gets deposited) so I'm in violation of my plan in the sense of holding too much cash. Not a hoard by any stretch, though, and the return is still negative real. Even modest changes in inflation have big effects on how heavily I must lean on my stash going forward simply because it's like a swarm of termites chomping the non-COLA annuity leg of my stool. It's getting to be less of a game of balancing fear and greed as it is of mitigating fear. Even with the planned move and almost all my new money for the last ~3 years going away from US equities (all equities, actually) I still won't be much below 70% stocks as prior to Friday mine on the US side were up about 9% YTD, so maybe closer to 8% now.

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:50 am

My recently completed apartment purchase and its associated costs has brought down my cash allocation from almost 5 years of current expenses to slightly above 3.5*.
Unless the stock market starts to tank, I’m considering putting on hold all my stock purchases, which should replenish the fund fairly fast since I should be able to save 2-3 months of expenses every month going forward (as I did in my recent Italian years).

*I hold zero bonds and count all my cash together

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:41 pm

jennypenny wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:08 am
Any thoughts on why rising interest rates are driving gold prices down? I know gold prices drop when the stock market goes up (generally), but since the 'smart' money is predicting a pullback I would think they would be propping up gold prices.

Anyone with a PP/GB type portfolio have any ideas? I'm tempted to keep adding to my gold position but I don't want to OG.
https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/29 ... cial-crash

“Really, the basic steps are straightforward:

Economic/financial crisis leads to asset liquidation and dollar shortage

Dollar shortage leads to dollar appreciation and gold depreciation (in dollar terms)

One form of asset liquidation – forced gold selling – leads to gold depreciation (in all currencies)

Eventual monetary response creates surplus of dollars

Surplus of dollars causes dollar depreciation and gold appreciation

For US investors, in my opinion, a crisis in which a skyrocketing dollar sends gold plummeting in US dollar terms could create a big gold buying opportunity, like it did in 2008. That said, the basic steps outlined above could take months to fully materialize.”

http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018- ... -2018.html

“What could drive the prices of the metals higher? Whenever we ask this question, we mean durably. Of course, speculators in the futures markets could begin to buy long positions with leverage. But then what? Such buying inevitably turns to selling, unless there is real buying of the metal.

Right now, so far as we can see, there’s weak demand for retail coins and bars. The Indian rupee has been falling all year. The average Indian is about 7% less able to buy gold than he was at the end of December. The Russian ruble peaked at the end of January, and is now down 11.65. The Chinese yuan is down about 6% since its peak in early February.

And the reason for these big currency moves is simple. All around the world, governments and corporations have previously borrowed US dollars. Their revenues are in their local currencies. This mismatch creates a risk. It’s great when everyone from currency traders to yield-starved fund managers are borrowing dollars, to sell them short and buy other currencies. Then the local currency, which is their asset, is rising against the dollar which is their liability.

Eventually, the tide turns. It becomes a bit harder to generate local currency revenue. Perhaps because the world seems to be headed towards a repeat of the tariff policies that exacerbated the last great depression. Perhaps because it’s time for the cycle to turn. Perhaps because QE has become QT. It could even be that market participants lower their estimate of the quality of the debt backing these currencies.

Whatever the reason, market selling begins pushing these currencies down. This compounds the problems of dollar-debtors around the world. This makes their local currency bonds even less attractive, and hence their local currency too. What was a lot of fun on the way up, turns into a lot of pain on the way down.

Add to this the fact that interest rates in the dollar have risen. The cost of funding such “carry trades” is much higher, and the attractiveness of other higher-rate currencies is less compared to the dollar, than it was a few years ago.

This, by the way, is what it means that the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. The reserve currency is not whatever oil is priced in—oil is priced in dollars because it’s the reserve. It is that the dollar is an asset on every major balance sheet in the world. The other currencies are dollar-derivatives. It is appropriate to describe their motion up and down with reference to the dollar from which they derive.

We are painting a picture of credit stress. The first phase of such stress is a general impoverishment, reduction in profits, wages, and savings. This is not an environment for accumulating gold or silver. The question is will the second phase come, a.k.a. fear. This is when investors (those who are still solvent) rush to trade some of their paper for metal. When they don’t like the risk of the counterparties who issue that paper.

We are not embedded in the culture in India or Russia or China. We can speak only to America, and right now, there is a general optimism that GDP is doing great, the stock market is going great, employment is doing great, and even policies that harm the economy like tariffs are great. This won’t last, as these purported signs of greatness show accelerated capital consumption (along with the rise in debt levels). Not even counting the impact of tariffs which has not been felt yet.”

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Michael_00005
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Michael_00005 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:49 pm

ROTH -
Purchased LX today, earnings expected 8/23. China trade issues, and now the emerging market scare really put a kink in the price. risk vs rewards looks favorable.

edit --- I'll like sell all or half of position on or before 8/22 if there is a nice profit. 8/17 was a nice 10% jump in price, it will likely be a hold and wait if the price drops.

Edit 2 -- 8/23 sold LX, current time (today) LX is up ~21% after earnings so it ended up being a favorable trade.
Last edited by Michael_00005 on Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:29 pm, edited 4 times in total.

George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one » Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:13 pm

Seppia wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 9:28 am
George the original one wrote:
Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:59 am
Instead of P&G, take a look at CLX & their dividend growth.
seems like a nice company indeed, thanks for the tip. I have started following them and studying.
Found my portfolio being heavily powered by CLX this summer, so I hope you bought some!

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:39 am

No but I had added some PG which had more more less the same trajectory :)

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Frugalchicos
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Frugalchicos » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:48 am

We have been investing about $6K/month in Betterment, 90% stocks - 10% bonds ($141K so far). I am seriously considering in accumulating cash instead of investing for a while...

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Michael_00005
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HCLP

Post by Michael_00005 » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:19 am

HCLP is heading back into buy territory, added a bid for 11.65

Edit #1 (9/4); sold HCLP @ 12.20
Strategy: My feeling for this stock is that it will bounce around with a low range around $11-$12 before the next earnings... a similar trend happens with other stocks. I will again look to buy if it drops into the 11.50 range, or double down if it nears $11, and then again sell with a price jump. 2-4 weeks before earnings and dividend I will buy and hold for the earnings, and price jump that generally happens. This strategy can work well in a choppy market like we have now. During a solid bull market, I often prefer buy hold with ETF's
Last edited by Michael_00005 on Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:22 am, edited 5 times in total.


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Michael_00005
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FB

Post by Michael_00005 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:23 am

FB is starting to look good, back in @ 171.80

--Edit (9/26), average purchase price @ $166.05. Will likely sell some or all of the position prior to earnings if the prices goes above 180.

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Bankai
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:45 pm

UK small-caps, eps. high growth, are melting down this week. Yesterday was especially drastic with some of my (ex- thanks to stop-losses) holdings down double digits % at some point. Looks like private investors are fleeing to the safety of cash. Since arguing with the market usually doesn't pay off, I reduced my exposure by selling remaining small caps and my brokerage account is now 80% in cash. Is this just another correction, or the beginning of something more serious? I guess time will tell, for now, though I'm quite happy to watch from sidelines.

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