Bitcoin on the rise

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:00 pm

Like-kind of exchange of cryptos no longer allowed: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-gop-plan

Haven't seen the exact text..

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BRUTE
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by BRUTE » Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:43 am

SnailMeister4000 wrote:
Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:01 pm
Is there no publily available analysis by governmental bodies so far on the potential impact of "universal, global, digital currencies" (again I am not sure about correct terminology) in national/regional economies? Isn't this the elephant in the room, or am I nout understanding it?
of course it is the elephant in the room. cryptocurrencies were explicitly invented to take control over money away from governments. this is also pretty much the explicit mission statement of the original Bitcoin.

at this point, Bitcoin has been "taken over" by less libertarian humans, and is pretty neutral politically.

there have been a few studies by government bodies, but honestly, they're probably as wrong as any of the Eurozone studies. that stuff's just pretty hard to predict, especially if one's salary depends on not predicting it.

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fiby41
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by fiby41 » Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:26 am

What does brute et al think about Japan recognizing cryptocraze and treating losses as tax deductible (unlike gambling)?

30% discount good enough or its all downhill from here?
Last edited by fiby41 on Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:42 am, edited 2 times in total.

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BRUTE
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by BRUTE » Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:40 am

hard to tell. in a sense it's an asset. in a sense it's also currency. in a sense, it's gambling. but humans gamble with stocks all the time, and that's tax deductible.

brute is unsure what fiby41 means with the 30% discount.

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7Wannabe5
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:23 am

@BRUTE@Bryan:

Thanks for all the info. I shopped around on the sites you suggested, and decided that I will just give them a fancy promissory note for LBC, because I might have some stuff I can trade there.

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fiby41
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by fiby41 » Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:10 pm

Gilberto de Piento wrote:
Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:56 pm
Long Island Iced Tea Corp. shares rose as much as 289 percent after the unprofitable Hicksville, New York-based company rebranded itself Long Blockchain Corp.
List of more such examples

Factbox: Companies change names, businesses to ride the crypto wave
https://in.reuters.com/article/cryptocu ... ss+News%29

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SnailMeister4000
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by SnailMeister4000 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:14 pm

BRUTE wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:43 am
SnailMeister4000 wrote:
Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:01 pm
Is there no publily available analysis by governmental bodies so far on the potential impact of "universal, global, digital currencies" (again I am not sure about correct terminology) in national/regional economies? Isn't this the elephant in the room, or am I nout understanding it?
of course it is the elephant in the room. cryptocurrencies were explicitly invented to take control over money away from governments. this is also pretty much the explicit mission statement of the original Bitcoin.
So it's probably only a matter of time until such currencies will be strongly regulated on national/regional level, no?

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BRUTE
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by BRUTE » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:45 pm

if adoption continues at this pace, probably

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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by ether » Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:03 pm

Demanding tax every time you switch currency is effectively a declaration of war in my book:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/only-802 ... s-irs-says

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fiby41
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by fiby41 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:01 pm

Thankfully the cryptocraze is too small in my country to be regulated.

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:57 pm

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:23 am
a fancy promissory note for LBC, because I might have some stuff I can trade there.
Is that https://lbry.io/ ? Never heard of it. Reminds me a little of http://www.alexandria.io / http://flo.cash/

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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Jason » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:24 am

Take heed. The appropriately scruffy man on the perch has spoken.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these ... 2018-01-04

I'm kind of confused as to why if you have invested in Bitcoin "you have some lost some time and life energy, which means you have lost" but spending time writing, discussing and publicly speaking as to why you shouldn't invest in Bitcoin doesn't have the same consequences. I guess that's why he gets to hold the celery and I don't.

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:22 pm

IMO it was crazy for him to make a whole, long blog post about it. This still applies:
bryan wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:39 pm
I love reading a lot of these hot takes and articles (so many are so off-base..). I'm not a huge fan of Bitcoin this last year for various reasons (i.e. it is riskier than ever; 2013+ was a clear BUY where if someone disagrees I just respond "ha, yeah don't if you don't want to.." (multiple friends have now expressed that they wish I had tried to convince them harder..)), so I am always looking for news for why I shouldn't keep at least some Bitcoin et al as part of my portfolio. Very surprised that there are no new arguments to be read..

Let me re-iterate.. I don't really know if it will go up or down from here. I've had all the same concerns since 2015 (some have not come to pass yet while some have played out in exactly the bad way).. yet the price has risen. A lot of people had the same concerns and decided to exit Bitcoin after failing to address said issues. Too smart for their own sake?
I do agree that losing time/energy sucked, and I look forward to more productive months coming up, but at least for me the wasted time (figuring out strategy/tactic for re-balancing) was a very high hourly rate of income realized from LTCG.

I don't mind @jacob's, Buffet's, Levine's takes.
bryan wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:13 am
I expressed worry earlier about CME futures. I still have that worry (especially after seeing how this pump is working well). However, yesterday I was looking more into CBOE (since I had completely forgotten about it..). My conclusion last night was that CBOE would actually have a positive effect on the BTC price leading into the CME launch, due to most people (that want to "short") probably waiting for CME whereas people that are "long" Bitcoin (especially the Winklevoss who run Gemini which is used for CBOE..) have more to gain by pumping the price in the small volume Gemini auction and letting the rest of the liquid market fall in line. Anyone that really needs to hedge against bitcoin prices doesn't mind another week for CME to open for more liquidity and they certainly don't mind another week of price bumps. Any really bad news for Bitcoin (mainly thinking of all the Tether stuff.. but also any exchange news in general) is being saved until sizable futures can be traded.
Jan 17/18 futures settlement dates approaching. These will be volatile times as folks try to maximize profits from futures. Gemini (CBOE futures) may have opportunity to either buy BTC for cheap or sell BTC for a premium.

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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by jacob » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:32 pm

@bryan - Witching day activity for regular stuff usually happens within the last 10 minutes of trading. It'll be interesting if BTC displays a longer horizon. (To me it's just academic, so... just a hint/exercise for others).

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:56 pm

Agreed, for CME it is a specific time (Retrieval Time: 4:01 p.m. London time on a given Calculation Day, as given by the
server clock of the Calculation Agent; Calculation Methodology: Aggregation of trade executions occurring on Constituent Exchanges between 3:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. London time)

For CBOE, it is based on daily auction on gemini, which has the bids/asks hidden but publishes a mid-market price (aka the settlement price which will be used for CBOE) every 10s (from memory.. I think I already linked to the auction methodology? This is probably it, scroll down: https://gemini.com/marketplace/#auctions the developer docs on their website has more info too) until the auction is over. Trades will execute on either side of the settlement price. It's possible that I could sell some BTC for $16k and buy some at $14k in the exact same auction.

The volatility will be in that witching period, but maybe also folks preparing to trade during the witching period? I have USD on gemini, but may transfer in more BTC as well.

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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by jacob » Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:04 pm

https://qz.com/1160667/the-secret-lives ... orm-rooms/ (free electricity)

In other news, SK is talking about banning trading in crypto. SK is notorious for speculative behavior mainly thanks to no capital gains taxes on financial trading which has therefore turned into a rather speculative/lottery-like activity for very many people.

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BRUTE
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by BRUTE » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:17 am


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fiby41
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by fiby41 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:46 am

Yes it's not a blanket ban, more like regulation which IMO is warranted there after bithumb got hacked for the second time. FUD mainly steered by MSM.

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:00 pm

https://twitter.com/iamjosephyoung/stat ... 4868135936
JTBC: South Korean gov't "shocked" at the number of citizens requesting the removal of Justice Minister and Finance Minister for market manipulation.

100k signatures filed to reject #cryptocurrency trading ban proposal.

30k signatures filed for removal of the two ministers.
Interesting how things will develop given incentives.. I'm bullish on incentives.

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:06 pm

Bitcoin crashing!

Down 25% on the week.

Explanation? Well I already gave one, a month ago. Basically the rise was "wall street" money collecting a war chest of BTC. The crash is them selling the BTC to profit on futures (CBOE contract finalized today), thus book a double profit.
bryan wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:22 pm
Jan 17/18 futures settlement dates approaching. These will be volatile times as folks try to maximize profits from futures. Gemini (CBOE futures) may have opportunity to either buy BTC for cheap or sell BTC for a premium.
bryan wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:56 pm
The volatility will be in that witching period, but maybe also folks preparing to trade during the witching period? I have USD on gemini, but may transfer in more BTC as well.
The CBOE settlement rate is set by this auction: https://gemini.com/auction-data/?filter ... uctionData As you can see, $6.7M is much more than yesterday's $101k and about double the volume from previous highest volume day. I'm too lazy to copy/paste that into a spreadsheet to make a graph to show this day being so far to the top right.. Not so much witching period (just the 24 hours leading up) for gemini given its format, let's see if we see a witching period for CME, or a crash redux.

Was I right or wrong? Who knows. This could all be a coincidence or only a minor factor. There are some quite happy futures traders right now, though!

I didn't get to test my gemini theory for posting a buy AND sell limit order in the same auction :( However, I did pretty easily time the market and had a limit buy order get chewed up. Just need to figure if I want to realize the profit immediately, hold or buy other cryptos with it, or use it for the gemini experiment next month.

I'm feeling a little better about Bitcoin prices than I was a month+ ago. The volatility/volume/attention of the last two months was a bit much and I think things will calm down in the next few months.

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