Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Hello,

mostly I am only reading on this forum.
I live in Germany. Soon I will probably be able to get vaccinated (Pfizer/Moderna).
I am not sure whether I should take it or wait for some "traditional" vaccines. I am concerned about long term effects of these mRNA vaccines, especially in terms of potential cancirogenic effect. We do not have any long term studies about this technology. What do you think? Are you taking mRNA vaccine or wainting for more traditional ones?

I had my first Moderna shot two weeks ago after consulting with my doctor. I'm not so young so I had to weigh potential long term effects against there being no long term at all for me. That came out a wash so the deciding factor above my doctor's strong recommendation is that I do not want to be the carrier who infects someone with a major susceptibility to serious illness/death. Another consideration was that it appears covid itself might have some lasting effects on some people whose long-term impact is not known. I didn't see a good choice so made the best of a raw deal.

alice_nrw wrote: ↑

Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:57 pm

alice_nrw

From what I've read about the technology, it doesn't really worry me.

alice_nrw wrote: ↑

Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:57 pm

Are you taking mRNA vaccine or waiting for more traditional ones?

Apparently, vaccine from Johnson and Johnson is "traditional" and requires a single administration. But there is genetic engineering.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ccine.html

Additional note: The JNJ vaccine knocked me out for good two days with a mild fever, mild body aches and a week long sore arm at the injection site. But the reactions vary, as there are at least three others that I've spoken to, had no symptoms from taking the JNJ vaccine.

chenda wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:06 am

It's a good thing. As obseity is an additional risk factor for covid free doughnuts seems an ideal incentive.

Yep. If one lived next to KK and grabbed one free donut for the rest of the year (267 days at 190 calories), that would be 50,730 (/3,500) calories or a 14.5 pound weigh gain.

True, except for the trivial example of the does not exist individual who only eats free donut and dandelion greens gathered in the park.

I recently read that new vaccine that targets Covid spikes 6 ways rather than just 2 ways like current vaccines is coming down the pike, so their is now non-trivial possibility that it might be one more shot next year and we’re done!!!

Frita wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:07 am

Yep. If one lived next to KK and grabbed one free donut for the rest of the year (267 days at 190 calories), that would be 50,730 (/3,500) calories or a 14.5 pound weigh gain.

I was standing in a circle with a half-dozen friends this morning. One pulled out a Krispy Kream donut and bragged that he got it for free. I was surprised as he has been rather vocal about not getting the vaccine. He explained that Wyoming and a few other anti-vax states posted a pdf of the blank CDC cards on their website. He downloaded it, printed it and scribbled jibberish on it.

@Ego:

I think the same thing happened when young women offered to bare their breasts to anybody who voted liberal on some issue.

I had the astra-zeneca vaccine yesterday. They had some surplus stock which was about to expire so I was able to lawfully jump the age queue under a zero waste policy. Some side effects kicked in after 6 hrs but after 24 hours they seemed to have abated. The second vaccine apparently does not bring as many side effects. Once I've had the second one I'll stop quarantining and dettoxing all my deliveries and shopping. And opening the communal door with my sleeve...

Ego wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:23 pm

I was standing in a circle with a half-dozen friends this morning. One pulled out a Krispy Kream donut and bragged that he got it for free. I was surprised as he has been rather vocal about not getting the vaccine. He explained that Wyoming and a few other anti-vax states posted a pdf of the blank CDC cards on their website. He downloaded it, printed it and scribbled jibberish on it.

Couldn't believe they were simply scribbling out vaccine cards on pieces of paper when I saw the picture. So much for reducing contact. Here the entire process is paperless.

“What’s important is vaccination should be recorded online, real-time with proper authentication of identity so that the person gets the message if he has to come back in 3 weeks for the next vaccine. India is probably the 1st country in the world which has actually implemented this infrastructure for vaccination certificates. So actually I believe that if you do all the right things India will also be a role model on how to vaccinate a billion people at scale, at speed and in a trusted manner. A lot of early work done by startups was in subsidising transactions with discounts and cashbacks"... when buyers present their QR-code verifiable vaccination certificates.

84 million 1st doses and 11 million 2nd doses have been administered. BharatBiotech's indigenously developed Covaxin is in use along with Covishield. It is doubtful if Pfizer vaccine can be introduced in India because it required lower cold storage temperature than other vaccines.

Entire code for digital credentialing programs has been made available for free (open source) if your country wants to implement it or someone is suspicious that their data is not secure or a company thinks it is getting bogus claims on their freebies for those vaccinated.

Alaska has the CDC paper cards but everything is also updated to a state database. I guess it varies by state. That is very sad though that someone would do that just to get a sugar donut.

theanimal wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:04 am

That is very sad though that someone would do that just to get a sugar donut.

I don't know him very well but I know he sells gold and was severely affected by the lockdowns. If I were to guess I believe he sees it as a stick in the eye of those who love big brother. Silly? Perhaps. Futile? Certainly.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21254882v1

Not sure significance - study design I think means cannot determine risk of an individual getting it after vaccinated (case control showing South African variant a higher variant after Pfizer vaccine in Israel)

cL mentioned concerns about administering rapidly approved vaccines to young people and he was called stupid for doing so.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/us/p ... a-cdc.html

Federal health agencies on Tuesday called for an immediate pause in use of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose coronavirus vaccine after six recipients in the United States developed a rare disorder involving blood clots within about two weeks of vaccination.

and

In the United States alone, 300,000 to 600,000 people a year develop blood clots, according to C.D.C. data. But the particular blood clotting disorder that the vaccine recipients developed, known as cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, is extremely rare.

All of the women developed the condition within about two weeks of vaccination, and government experts are concerned that an immune system response triggered by the vaccine was the cause.

-----

He also asked this....

classical_Liberal wrote: ↑
Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:28 pm
Will vaccines be "forced" (in the form of the pos/neg reinforcements) on those with proof of positive titers?

CDC statement: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021 ... ccine.html

Looks like CDC and the FDA is recommending the same approach as several EU countries WRT the AstraZeneca vaccine which has had similar problems.

Summary:
6 (six) out of 6.8M vaccinated or roughly 1 in a million have developed a rare/serious blood clot disorder from the vaccine.

compare to the disease CFR from the same age group (both genders)

(1957+5683+15444.)/330 = 70 people pr million died in the age 18-49 group.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/119 ... by-age-us/

What might that calculation look like adjusted for obesity and other comorbidities?

70 is a big number, especially since comparing deaths to serious hospitalizations. Dunno what the current survival rate is in ICU. It used to be ~50%, so maybe closer to 1:140 odds for an ICU outcome. IIRC, the Italian comorbidity numbers for "lifestyle-diseases" were high but not ~100 times higher.

Also consider comorbidities like a temperamental inability to avoid indoor spaces, crowds, or close proximity with maskless people. I mean we got enough data to register political orientation as a comorbidity at this point. Of course correlation, which is what a comorbidity is, is only relevant to statistical analysis of the masses, not individual people.

I am a bit surprised that the US appears to want to halt the roll-out with those odds just like many EU countries did it with AstraZeneca over similar(same?) issues. There must be concerns other than math, survival, and the population/virus dynamics governing this decision, e.g. politics and lawsuits.

Nate Silver's head is exploding on twitter over the J&J pause.

Tyler Cowen has a piece on Bloomberg about our view of sins of omission vs. sins of commission. He also discussed Covid on Econtalk last week.

These are quick estimates from reported cases. Not necessarily causative or not. Some may or may not be missing as well. FDA stops stuff in general (not just in this case) to do a deeper dive to better evaluate risk and benefit. This is more of a signal that there may be something that needs to be understood
Pandemics may or may not change the calculus depending on how you view the world

jacob wrote: ↑

Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:07 am

70 is a big number, especially since comparing deaths to serious hospitalizations. Dunno what the current survival rate is in ICU.

78% of all those hospitalized with Covid-19 are obese or overweight. That is all-age hospitalization. What percentage of the younger cohort you mention are obese or overweight?

Severe outcomes increase considerably with age so it is not unreasonable to assume that most of the young people who experienced a severe outcome were obese or overweight considering 42.5% of the pre-covid population are obese. How many of those 70/100k are obese?

That does not even take into account the other comorbidities. Remove those with comorbidities and we've got to be down to flu level death rates for that age group.

Those vulnerable people should be vaccinated with whatever vaccine is available.

@jennypenny, in general I agree with Cowen's assessment regarding sins of omission vs sins of commission. People should have access to the vaccine and they can decide whether to get vaccinated or not. Also note, Cowen is obese and Silver is not far from it.

I had lunch last week with a few twenty-somethings who were coerced/forced into getting vaccinated despite having zero comorbidities and being specimens of heath. They did it to protect one person who is also vaccinated but continues to live their best Krispy Kreme lifestyle.

I thought it was a good metaphor for what is happening society-wide.