COVID topic vol 2

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white belt
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by white belt »

USA hits ~4k deaths a day, projected for 150k deaths in next month.

Has anyone seen any information on recent USA projections for herd immunity? I wonder with the slow vaccine rollout (slow distribution+people refusing it) and so many deaths, how long it will take for the vaccine to actually have an effect on those numbers? I remember that vaccine development article from a few months back talked about how it might end up that we reach herd immunity from deaths around the same time as vaccine rollout is complete, but I haven’t seen any data to back that up yet.

Edit: One projection I saw from IHME was 1 million deaths in USA for herd immunity (there might be better/more accurate figures elsewhere). If the 150k a month death rate continues then we’d pass that mark in 4.25 months, just in time for summer.

jacob
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by jacob »

@wb - Back of the envelope says 150k deaths per month with a case fatality rate of 1.7% (just using today's integrated numbers from worldometers) leads to ~9M cases per month ... the actual number of cases will be higher, but I have no good way of estimating that since the positive test rates in the US are rather higher (meaning that substantial numbers slip through). In any case ~9M/month > current vaccination rates...

Vaccination rates should be picking up with more experience.

Currently, the highest infected states are ND and SD with 12 and 13% of the population having had it. (Possibly including double counting people who've had it twice. This happens but my understanding is that it's rare.) That's after almost a year. Insofar we maintain the current game of behaviorally controlling R so as not to overwhelm the medical infrastructure, getting herd immunity the hard way is going to take years. Word is that vaccine roll out should be done by this year.

It will be interesting to see what happens near the end when vaccination counts are high enough to ease lockdowns enough to make the unvaccinated get sick faster. This seems rather nonlinear to me.

nomadscientist
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by nomadscientist »

Large IFR reduction is possible with small vaccination fraction provided vaccination is highly targeted toward those are highest risk of death. Though I understand the US specifically has had political resistance to this, the rapid spread of the disease makes it the obviously correct policy.

IFR is more likely 0.5%, so 150k deaths per month implies ~30m infections, not all of which will be detected.

c4rat0n1a
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by c4rat0n1a »

Ego wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:24 pm
Ivermectin once again.
Plenty of national healthcare systems running large trials with it - certainly the UK and Australia are and the WHO has been funding trials in e.g. Egypt & Bangladesh since March/April.

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Ego
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Ego »

@c4rat0n1a, we were able to go from zero to vaccine in arms in such a short period of time. Yet somehow we've been unable to sufficiently trial a previously approved drug so that it could be cleared for use as a prophylactic and treatment for Covid. A drug that we knew prior to Covid had antiviral properties. A drug that is on the World Health Organization list of essential medications. A drug that had earned the Nobel Prize for the scientists who developed it. A drug that has been distributed for free by several governments in the developing world to treat Covid and appears to be successful. A drug that is extremely inexpensive, in great supply and can be made easily. A drug with relatively few side effects.

Boggles the mind.

enigmaT120
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by enigmaT120 »

But a drug for which nobody knows the name.

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