There's another explanation than mental illness: media manipulation of persons with limited attention span (all of us, ultimately, but impacting some worse than others).shemp wrote: ↑Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:46 amIf maximum drawdown is the criterion, then vaccines and hospital treatment are both off the table (and not just for covid), because there's always the chance you'll die or be left paralyzed from the neck down due to some one in a billion allergic reaction or hospital acquired infection. Driving also off the table, but then so is walking. Can't shower either, because you might slip and crack your head in the bathtub and die of stroke. Even walking around your home has non-zero probability of falling and suffering a stroke such that you die or are left crippled. But staying in bed forever will guarantee you get sick from muscle wastage. So what to do?
Fact people are talking seriously about maximum drawdown as the criterion is clear proof that covid-19 is mostly a mental illness pandemic, hysterical overreaction to a legitimate disease that, like flu, kills mostly the weak and especially the elderly weak, but is maybe 3 times more deadly than a typical bad flu strain, such as the flu of winter 2017-2018. For example, https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps shows excess deaths for much of western Europe. Cumulative charts definitely show excess deaths in 2020 compared to previous years, but only by factor of 3 compared to 2018: about 300K vs 100K. "Long haulers" probably another aspect of this pandemic of mental illness.
The maximum drawdown analysis makes sense if you consider covid to be one of a very small set of maximum drawdown events, and ignore all the other maximum drawdown events. That doesn't require one be mentally ill in the conventional sense.
People are hard-wired to assume anything they personally hear about is at least 1% probable, and anything they hear about over and over for a few weeks is ~100% probable, which makes perfect sense given the Dunbar number. This is a subconscious belief that exists despite conscious knowledge otherwise, and people have varying ability to override the subconscious with the conscious.
People also round other risks down to ~0%, which also makes sense given we're evolved to produce maximum offspring number rather than to maximise life year sitting alone in a house. From a species level view, those risks usually aren't worth worrying about even if some individual specimens die as a result.
Modern propaganda is based almost exclusively on these two effects, using technology to break all the scale assumption of Dunbar socialisation and hack peoples' subconscious.
The BBC for example does not run age-stratified mortality stats for covid constantly, but does constantly run some anecdata one-in-a-million middle aged man who got his leg amputated, or a middle aged woman who developed "long covid" with symptoms that are not medically detectable, for example. Most people are defenceless against this manipulation.