COVID topic vol 2

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Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »

fyi i strapped surgical mask over the exhaust of my p100 respirator. it's just small hole vs the relatively large mask so it took some tying of knots to properly filter.

nomadscientist
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by nomadscientist »

c4rat0n1a wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 4:09 pm
Exactly. In the UK, once it became apparent during the first wave that even after cancelling all but the most critical medical treatment, hospitals were still going to be overflowing, the government quickly built 7 new "nightingale" hospitals - basically military style field hospitals.

Turns out though, that there weren't just a bunch of doctors and nurses sitting round with nothing to do. All the actual doctors and nurses in the country already had jobs in the hospitals that already existed. It seems that you can't just magic new doctors into existence in a few weeks or months, so these new hospitals aren't getting used due to lack of staff.
They aren't getting used due to lack of patients.

Lack of hospital-quality staff was well expected - the purpose of those facilities was crowd control, not treatment. They would be used to warehouse the cases expected to survive with minimal interventions (most of cases), and as hospices for those considered unlikely to survive despite interventions so they do not die in hospital car parks in front of TV cameras.

Those who could benefit most from interventions would be treated in regular hospitals.

The general public (and even people who should know better) grossly overestimate the value added of intensive interventions though. The idea that these restrictions made sense to slowly feed people through ICUs was obviously crazy from the beginning which is why the pre-covid UK epidemic plan did not include that policy. It only ever made sense as measure to maximize the impact of vaccines, although it's unclear whether governments and officials realized that.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by thrifty++ »

I was waiting for stuff like this. Russia underreporting covid and admits actual deaths are about 3 times whats reported. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55474028

This will be the case for a significant number of countries across the world. I suspect actual deaths so far are more in the vicinity of five million. We wont find this out for some time though.

jacob
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by jacob »

Currently the hardest hit state in the US.

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... ambulances

thrifty++
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by thrifty++ »

No one wants to touch vaccines from China. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/ch ... 3UfazFBF_E

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Ego
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Ego »

jacob wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:12 pm
Currently the hardest hit state in the US.
USNS Mercy with 1000 beds was in Los Angeles in the spring. They treated 77 patients before leaving. They returned home not long after and were here for a while but as far as I can tell have now moved to Portland. Poor planning or strategic panic porn to encourage vaccination adoption?

We are a safety valve for LA and are at 83% capacity for ICU beds and under 80% for overall hospital beds. That doesn't count military or surge capacity. Orange County shows 800 ICU beds available.

chenda
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by chenda »

I have to say I find this idea that governments worldwide deliberately created over capacity back in spring to deliberately exacerbate panic amongst the population into subsequently accepting a vaccine which had yet to be invented as...untenable. Like most conspiracy theories, it requires the perpetrators to do a Schrödinger's cat and be both utterly incompetent and utterly genius at the same time.

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Ego
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Ego »

@chenda, The spring showed us that we have the ability to create capacity fast. Now we have lessons from the spring to make even better decisions. Yet LA County did not do it. It is strange to me that counties with administrations that are not friendly with Governor Newsom seem to have planned well for the winter surge.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by ZAFCorrection »

@nomadscientist

Has there been any research on the value add of regular medical intervention on covid? I guess since they figured out to dial back the ventilator usage and various other improvements it must have gone up since the beginning of the year.

Also, a curious case of bean counting is no one bothered to advocate for scaling up n95 production (or at least a fail in implementing the "at all costs" strategy). At most it would have taken a few months to bring up an almost arbitrary amount of new capacity. I don't think anyone seriously believes that cloth masks are as effective as n95s, but all that extra capacity would have gone to waste after the pandemic.
Last edited by ZAFCorrection on Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Viktor K
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Viktor K »

UK strain confirmed in US.

Should exacerbate the winter surge situation?

Or maybe will be mitigated slightly by vaccine rollout.

I think vaccine too late to affect the increase in infections from the alleged 70% increase in contagiousness.

Not likely the US will do anything to combat the new strain, but imagine restrictions between now and March or next summer-ish increase. The US strategy is generally to keep the r0 staying around ~1 right? (I thought that was mentioned at one point in this thread)

Any reason to believe restrictions will lessen as infections go up? Or that the more contagious variety will not affect the r0 significantly?

Western Red Cedar
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Western Red Cedar »

DW got the first round of the pfizer vaccine this afternoon. I'll let folks know if there are any adverse affects in the next couple of days.

mooretrees
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by mooretrees »

I got the first Moderna shot yesterday. Have a sore arm just like flu shots but nothing else. Supposedly the second shot of the Moderna is the one where folks really get the side effects.

nomadscientist
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by nomadscientist »

ZAFCorrection wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:11 pm
@nomadscientist

Has there been any research on the value add of regular medical intervention on covid? I guess since they figured out to dial back the ventilator usage and various other improvements it must have gone up since the beginning of the year.
Indeed - how many did they kill the first time around?
Also, a curious case of bean counting is no one bothered to advocate for scaling up n95 production (or at least a fail in implementing the "at all costs" strategy). At most it would have taken a few months to bring up an almost arbitrary amount of new capacity. I don't think anyone seriously believes that cloth masks are as effective as n95s, but all that extra capacity would have gone to waste after the pandemic.
Why do you think it's bean counting? Sure, if these guys really believed masks worked and Corona mattered, they'd do that. They didn't.

70+ year old politicians with all the connections in the world wear cloth masks with logos printed on them.

Anthony Fauci, an 80 year old man who is apparently some kind of scientist, wears a piece of cloth with "wear a mask" printed on it.

I, meanwhile, a nobody, rustled up some N95s in March.

nomadscientist
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by nomadscientist »

I did notice Kamala wearing doublemask at her gratuitous vaccination photo-op. A piece of cloth on the outside and an N95 underneath. Always said she was cunning.

George the original one
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by George the original one »

ZAFCorrection wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:11 pm
Also, a curious case of bean counting is no one bothered to advocate for scaling up n95 production (or at least a fail in implementing the "at all costs" strategy).
My county has been passing out free boxes of N95 masks once a month since June.

OTCW
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by OTCW »

mooretrees wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:26 pm
I got the first Moderna shot yesterday. Have a sore arm just like flu shots but nothing else. Supposedly the second shot of the Moderna is the one where folks really get the side effects.
I got the Moderna round 1 shot on Christmas Eve. I haven't heard the 2nd shot/side effect theory. I am scheduled to go back for round 2 on Jan 21, so will report back then re any side effect issues.

Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »

41 y.o. louisiana congressman-elect dies of covid

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5320 ... f-covid-19

tonyedgecombe
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by tonyedgecombe »

The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has been approved in the UK today.

In other news we are going to extend the delay between the two jabs to 12 weeks.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by thrifty++ »

Ok so now we have news from China saying the actual figures were ten times what was reported. This after Russia admitted death toll was 3 times what was reported. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid- ... GAQSSJR2U/

This is from the Chinese govt so its likely the true situation is far worse than is being admitted now.

jacob
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by jacob »

tonyedgecombe wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:29 am
In other news we are going to extend the delay between the two jabs to 12 weeks.
Apparently, there's a reason for that.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... dians.html

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