COVID topic vol 2

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Riggerjack
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Riggerjack »

@ MI

Yeah. That's exactly what I mean. I have never been to that site and found anything that was useful or written without the intent to feed me to some clickbait algorithm.

Every time I get there, I do think of Gel-Mann amnesia, and wet streets cause rain stories, though.

You choose your own inputs.
I am crossing the state line on Thanksgiving and disobeying the state order.
Well, you know your situation best.

Say hi to your granny from me, and be safe!

nomadscientist
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by nomadscientist »

Riggerjack wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:49 am
I haven't seen this. Or anything like this.

Which is not to say that this isn't happening, commonly. Just that I haven't seen it, and don't expect to. I wouldn't even know where to look, though I'm sure I could find it.

That may seem contradictory. It's not.

We live in a world with nearly infinite information available. We choose where and what we source, and what/who we pay attention to.

The algorithms only know what we pay attention to, and feed us more of whatever we consume.

Are you responsible for the information you consume? If not you, who?

If you take responsibility for the information you consume, why would you pay any attention to hedge fund managers trolling? How does that make you happier/more informed/better prepared to face 2020?

Or 2021, for that matter.
Your recent posts meander from the obvious point of the quoted text to mocking a strawman. MI isn't saying that he is personally unhappy because of billionaire tweets and would they leave him alone. He's pointing out an obvious conflict of interest in that the West's transnational ruling class is advocating policies from whose harms it exempts itself. That is true whether or not MI is aware it is happening or what his psychological reaction is to that awareness.

Similarly you replied to my post pointing out that this ruling class's preferred measures don't achieve their stated aims while leaving general devastation in their wake with a post arguing that the stated aims of the ruling class are worth achieving. OK, so what?

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Maybe "the ruling class" is a strawman? Dunno.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by classical_Liberal »

More like a large cog in a machine in which some of the largest cogs have some ability to manipulate output. However, they, and the smaller cogs, falsely believe they have more significant control.

Hating the machine, or the larger cogs, is wasted energy. Adapting to whatever it's output becomes, so that a meaningful life can be lived with minimal interference, is where it's at IMO.

Riggerjack
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Riggerjack »

@ Alphaville

If you want to think in game theoretic terms, remember that all the classic games are subject to very specific incentive ranges. They fall apart outside of those ranges.

So if one is faced with a prisoner's dilemma, one must deal with it on its own terms. But if one wants to stop dealing with a prisoner's dilemma, the incentives must change.

Stores cleaning carts and the premises full time during business hours is an infrastructural change that alters those incentives.

As is the move towards cashlessness. And working from home. And contactless delivery services. And curbside pickup.

Simple, straightforward changes each business can adopt to continue to be in business.

R values are condition dependent. Change conditions, change R values. We should want as many passive R suppressants as we can get.

These are the changes that alter the incentives going forward. We need more of this kind of innovation.

Perhaps the faster reacting Asian societies were as effective as they were dealing with C19, not because they lack American Independent Spirit TM, but they were simply more familiar with the threat and the proper response.

If there is one thing 2020 has shown us, it's that health codes need updating to pandemic standards. Leaving pandemic response up to the executive branch (state or federal) is a clear failure point, now.

I guess this is my way of looking on the bright side. The worse this winter gets, the more pressure there will be to harden against viruses.

Maybe next virus we will be as fast and certain as Asians were this time. Perhaps our problem isn't an excess of American Individualism, but merely a lack of practical experience.

And that seems to be a self correcting situation. :?
Your recent posts meander from
I'm sorry. We seem to have completely miscommunicated.
MI isn't saying that he is personally unhappy because of billionaire tweets and would they leave him alone. He's pointing out an obvious conflict of interest in that the West's transnational ruling class is advocating policies from whose harms it exempts itself.
Yup. I totally agree with you that this is what MI is saying.

I would only point out "transnational ruling class" in that sentence could be replaced with "all lobbyists, ever" and be just as accurate, at any time. If we have a government then someone will try to use it for their own purposes. I see no need to break out one set of interests from the rest.

Similarly you replied to my post pointing out that this ruling class's preferred measures don't achieve their stated aims while leaving general devastation in their wake with a post arguing that the stated aims of the ruling class are worth achieving. OK, so what?
If I have any opinion on an American ruling class, it's that the idea conflates separate groups, for cognitive ease, not accuracy. That's not the kind of intellectual maneuver I tend to make.

So if I said anything about the ruling class, I meant it as advise to the effect that one should not allow anyone else to distract you from doing what is right for you.
That is true whether or not MI is aware it is happening or what his psychological reaction is to that awareness.
This is the heart of where I think we disagree.

I'm not sure that these evil rulers exist as a class. From MIs descriptions, they sound like rational people using the same system I am, but with extra moves available to them, because wealth and power.

Ok. Since there is no plan to reduce wealth inequality, nor to equalize power, I am hearing nothing about any proposed solutions.

Merely the language of class warfare. Against a mysterious group of strangers who are doing great evil at great distance (by whatever measure: class, money, power)

Situations like this make me think of the movie Snowpiercer. After going the length of the train, and grokking how the sausage is made (so to speak), if one still thinks the thing to do is to change the Engineer...

So I ask:

How much attention does one want to dedicate to a subject that raises one's ire, and has no resolution?

This is a real question. If one doesn't answer it for oneself, there are algorithms with a selection of answers to choose from. :evil:

Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »

Riggerjack wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:55 pm
@ Alphaville
yes i hear you on the need for innovation etc to break the parameters of the game.

@jacob’s suggestion to purchase a respirator now that they’re available again is precisely that. bit of a kobayashi-maru scenario, no? reprogrsm the computer to let me win :D

innovation is one of the things individualism is great at, actually, and so we’re still the country where most of the innovation still happens. e.g. this is how we beat the french at the wine game: they stuck to tradition, we innovated like crazy (sorry france).

but what if innovation is not sufficient, or if arrrives too late?

sometimes in spite of all best efforts we’re stuck in a prisoner’s dilemma, and the nash equilibrium forecasts massive defections and bad weather.

(yes, i bought a lot of toilet paper back in march. it was the game of musical chairs... or musical thrones. innovatively, i also rigged a bidet situation to save paper: prisoner + nonprisoner strats.)

a strategically ideal society would be flexible enough to alter its behavior quickly according to environmental conditions. but of course that doesn’t exist. people have ingrained habits and expectations. change takes time.

societies have cultural inertia, they tend to default to certain modes of organization. e.g. the japanese learned to weark masks in 1918 and... never stopped. we forget easily and turn towards techno-optimism (the bright side) as your post illustrates so clearly.

but here’s a fly in that techno-ointment: even with technological business changes etc, the people who deliver those services to the customer are the ones bearing the brunt. recently read an article about death & burnout among nurses who “didn’t go to nursing school to be martyrs.”

https://www.thehealthworkforcehub.org/h ... e-martyrs/

when the customer is king... the worker is a serf. just 2 sides of the same coin (and this is why we’re here in this forum, trying to escape servitude, lolololol).

if we had a more considerate and less demanding customer, we’d have happier healthier safer workers. but we don’t do that. instead we exacerbate the roles. i do what i want! make me safe! deliver to my door! (i do some of that, btw: i’m lucky to be weathering confinement very well—and knock on wood.) but i don’t forget how much i depend on those who can’t isolate and work from home.

anyway, i ended up ordering elastomeric respirator with p100 cartridges so i don’t have to rely on our weak social fabric. suck it, neighbors! eat cake! :lol: (/s)

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Something else that might not be obvious is that the market does not really instantly spin out a lot of unique solutions available only to multi-millionaires. We are so used to thinking that buying a solution is always an option we can choose if we have enough money and we are willing to spend it. Not true. Actually, the best you can probably do with “just money” is hire people who are good at innovating on a dime to be around to help you.

Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:18 am
Actually, the best you can probably do with “just money” is hire people who are good at innovating on a dime to be around to help you.
or people willing to “be paid to cooperate” ;)

Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »


7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

“People willing to be paid to cooperate” is robust but not anti-fragile.

Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:37 am
“People willing to be paid to cooperate” is robust but not anti-fragile.
people “getting paid to cooperate” was just my relabeling of that annoying thing we call it employment :D

you can’t guarantee innovation on a dime. it’s experimental, and takes time and trials.

there are people who are more resourceful than others, but they charge a lot more, and you can’t always solve the unknown fast enough.

jacob
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by jacob »

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/as ... 1606139319

AstraZeneca joins Pfizer/BinNTech and Moderna, so now there are three (almost). Unlike the two others, AZN's is based on traditional tech (not mRNA creating spike proteins) and so doesn't require extreme deep freeze. In the two trials the efficacy was 62% and 90% respectively (depending on dose and timing) with "no serious safety incidents" whatever that means. AZN says it's not seeking a profit from this work. That it can deliver 3B units in 2021. That it's filing for emergency authorization with the FDA and also the WHO ASAP.

Add: https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centr ... 22hlr.html

nomadscientist
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by nomadscientist »

@Riggerjack

I did not express an opinion on the transnational ruling class.


@jacob

There have been three for a while - the Russian Sputnik vaccine uses the same technology as the AZN vaccine but is more effective.

jacob
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by jacob »

Expected pricing:

Pfizer/BioNTech: $20/dose
Moderna: $15--25/dose
AstraZeneca: $2.50/dose

As far as I understand, they all require two doses spaced 1--4+ weeks apart.

Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »

so moderna/pfizer for the rich and az for global herd immunity?

me, i’ll gladly take all 3 :lol:

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

My doctor theoretically put me on some kind of theoretical high risk list, so will be interesting to see how soon I can get it. I saw on the news that my hospital system got freezers. He wants me to get an antibody test later this week too which I suppose might preclude it if positive. I am still quite short of breath, but getting better.

Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »

jacob wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:00 am

AstraZeneca joins Pfizer/BinNTech and Moderna, so now there are three (almost). Unlike the two others, AZN's is based on traditional tech (not mRNA creating spike proteins) and so doesn't require extreme deep freeze. In the two trials the efficacy was 62% and 90% respectively (depending on dose and timing) with "no serious safety incidents" whatever that means.
read up the details, the 90% is for 1/2 dose followed by full dose a month later, so that’s how it will shape up going forward. 1.5 doses.

3 vaccines at 90% or higher effectiveness is, frankly, brilliant.

here’s to techno-optimism.

the social side of it, which is getting people actually vaccinated, might prove a bigger challenge.

nomadscientist
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by nomadscientist »

Alphaville wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:49 pm
read up the details, the 90% is for 1/2 dose followed by full dose a month later, so that’s how it will shape up going forward. 1.5 doses.
However, this result does not seem to have sufficient statistics to be admissible in its own right.

The main AZN trial is only just publishable, with 30 covid-infected vaccinated participants, and the half dose secondary trial has only 15% as many participants total.

AZN seems to be hiding the numbers of covid-infected vaccinated secondary trial participants or at least the BBC is choosing not to show that data, per this article. Scaling for total trial size implies one or two.

This result can turn out to be noise, and no one seems to be saying there's a plausible known mechanism (which doesn't rule out an unknown mechanism).

Like several others, the article writes the Gamaleya vaccine out of existence with no explanation, though in terms of the published data it's currently the best one.

Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »

huh?
bbc wrote: However, protection was 90% in an analysis of around 3,000 people on the trial who were given a half-sized first dose and a full-sized second dose.

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Jean
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Jean »

In france, according to official numbers, every year of life saved by the lockdown costed around 500'000 euros. Which is the average life saving of three french family.
Said otherwise, the cost of the lockdown, will require the savings of all french household for the five next year.

For french speaker, It's a quite mainstream investment channel (Grand Angle) that simply ran the numbers, so I was surprise to see him make a video with this angle on this topic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9xMD1Io7Cc

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