COVID topic vol 2

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Ego
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Ego »

Riggerjack wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:05 pm
But this didn't happen as merely a professional choice, it has also been the result of lifestyle design. I chose a life where mild disasters like viruses are an inconvenience, and you can too.

Or you can continue to insist that the world isn't any different than it was in 2019, and we should stop behaving as though it were. :roll:
In my mind the first priority of the clairvoyant from 2010 would have been to eliminated their comorbidities and make themselves as invulnerable as possible to the ravages of covid. At some point soon we will be back to work and those with vaccination immunity will be walking around asymptomatically spewing coronaviruses all over everyone. Old people and those with less robust immune systems will have a weaker immune response to the vaccine in the same way that the flu vaccine doesn't work well for those people. Add to that the fact that so many people have been living like the boy in the plastic bubble for the past year and will produce a flaccid immune response. Uh oh.

mooretrees
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by mooretrees »

Ego wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:29 pm
At some point soon we will be back to work and those with vaccination immunity will be walking around asymptomatically spewing coronaviruses all over everyone.
I am curious where this idea comes from?

ZAFCorrection
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by ZAFCorrection »

@RJ

As an introverted knowledge worker, covid has been a huge win for me. But I'm not ready to cast "I don't much like talking to people in person" into a virtue or some kind of thoughtful lifestyle design.

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Ego
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Ego »

mooretrees wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:01 pm
I am curious where this idea comes from?
It is the story of our times. Treat the symptoms.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586- ... Immunology.
The Common Cold Unit study found little sign of hope for sterilizing immunity for its common-cold coronavirus, but the results also suggested that immunity could be strong enough to reduce or even eliminate symptoms. Sterilizing immunity for COVID-19 would be ideal, because it would reduce the risk of people with minimal symptoms spreading the infection widely. But at this point, a vaccine that could reduce mortality would likely still be helpful, says Alessandro Sette, an immunologist also at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology
.

One of the recent TWiV podcasts mentioned it. They are marathon pods and I cannot find it at the moment.

mooretrees
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by mooretrees »

Thanks ego, that was an interesting article. I keep forgetting about TWim/TWiV, I've really liked the podcasts of Vincent Racaniello I've heard in the past.

tonyedgecombe
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by tonyedgecombe »

Riggerjack wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:05 pm
It seems like political solutions are compromises, and this compromise fits the needs of few.

But that is the nature of government. It's not geared towards optimal anything, ever.
I've often though the best you can hope for is everybody being mildly disappointed. This is what I hoped the outcome of Brexit would be, sadly I was quite wrong.
Riggerjack wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:05 pm
Guilty as charged. Other than that charge of upper middle class and knowledge worker. :lol:

But this didn't happen as merely a professional choice, it has also been the result of lifestyle design. I chose a life where mild disasters like viruses are an inconvenience, and you can too.

Or you can continue to insist that the world isn't any different than it was in 2019, and we should stop behaving as though it were. :roll:
This is what has surprised me about this community. I imagined it was mostly populated by stoic warriors brushing off whatever the world throws at them but it seems not to be the case.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@tonyedgecombe:

I think "fussbudgets" might be the word you are seeking.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Men over age 75 already have the highest suicide rate by far, as well as now the highest likelihood of dying from Covid-19. So, I think it is wrong minded to consider the situation as young people suffering risk of becoming severely bummed out vs. jolly old fat people suffering risk of death.

Riggerjack
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Riggerjack »

Pushing back on government BS is the only thing keeping the US a place where your taking prudent measures can actually make a difference. Just because you are happy sitting with your wife alone on Thanksgiving does not mean I should tolerate being denied seeing my grandmother by government decree.
And I am all for pushing back at Big Brother. This covid response has been a disaster. But I don't think what you have been doing here counts as pushing back against government, any more than I think the fine folks ineffectually starting fires in Portland are keeping me safe from Tyranny.

I'm sorry you can't visit your grandmother, but if she lives with my grandmother, then I agree with your oppressor, maybe you should pick up a phone.
But I get it, you have what you want, and trolling is fun.
Really, I don't think you do. This isn't trolling. This is me pointing out that you are using simple heuristics that exclude a big portion of the picture, by describing that picture.
This virus has done nothing to the economy; ineffective government attempts to control the virus have damaged the economy, but they have damaged civil society more. Some countries have eliminated the virus by using different measures, and now have economy and society back, or never lost them, but no one notices or cares.
Yeah. We have chosen the least effective, highest cost (in terms of dollars, and lives) path. I think you and I have agreed about that since April.

But we just had an election, and we have all had our entire say about what the government should do. Do you feel your advice will be heeded by our new guy/gal? Or do you think this can has been positioned nicely to be kicked down the road?

Myself, I have no confidence that the political process I saw this year is going to make anybody better off that doesn't have considerably more pull than I do. So, I stopped worrying about what the government is doing. Outside my circle of control, and looking at my voting record, clearly outside my circle of influence.

So, I did something strange. I just made sure I took the precautions that make sense to me, gave the best advice I could to friends and relatives, help where I can, and try to just stay out of the way.

But then, I live on 10 acres, on a blue rural wooded island, full of retirees. So I am sure I am in a bubble, as this is an odd combination, demographically speaking. As places to be in 2020 stand, this seems to be a good place to be. We hit zero cases for a while this summer, but nothing lasts in 2020.

My point in my previous post was that not everything is government policy. Individual choices matter now, as much or more than ever. This includes the choice to wait for a return of 2019.

At some point soon we will be back to work and those with vaccination immunity will be walking around asymptomatically spewing coronaviruses all over everyone.
Well, my friend, I think you and I are just reading different tea leaves. :D
As an introverted knowledge worker, covid has been a huge win for me. But I'm not ready to cast "I don't much like talking to people in person" into a virtue or some kind of thoughtful lifestyle design.
I would say that overcoming one's desire to "talk to other people in person" is where the virtue is. Respecting the other enough to not allow my own neediness to endanger them and their loved ones seems pretty basic to me.
This is what has surprised me about this community. I imagined it was mostly populated by stoic warriors brushing off whatever the world throws at them but it seems not to be the case.
Nobody is stoic all the time against everything. In particular when trying to be stoic against forces one has not anticipated. Few were prepared for the life alterations of social distancing.

I was trying to move the conversation from "we are on the worst path", to "we are on the worst path, it doesn't lead to a pass, what are we going to need when this path ends in a cliff face, and how do we get that stuff from here?".

We have a 170+ page Covid thread. It's locked. This one seemed to be following that one. So I thought I would try something different.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

I am more than twice as wealthy than I was when the year started, and not having to see fake friends and or take my girlfriend out has worked just fine for me. I will be crossing state lines on Thanksgiving to visit my grandmother, good luck to the government enforcing their lockdown. I have no expectation that some conversation on the ERE forums will lead to a government policy change. So if the only thing that matters is individual action then that’s fine, I will continue subverting. Just thought I would remind people that they were giving up their civil liberties for nothing.
Last edited by Mister Imperceptible on Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »

Riggerjack wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:24 am

Yeah. We have chosen the least effective, highest cost (in terms of dollars, and lives) path.
it’s not so much a choice as a kind of nash equilibrium. we’ve arrived to this from the competition of individuals trying to maximize their own strategies.

it’s a large-scale version of the prisoner’s dilemma.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma

the optimal situation would have been if everyone cooperated in eradicating the virus, which would have in turn increased chances of reopening the economy swiftly. strict lockdowns andeveryone masked and public assistance for the affected. this would have been an inconvenience to everyone equally, but it would limit the health + economic damage in the long run.

but we live in societies where everyone is looking out for number one and gaming their own situation instead of coordinating with each other. some lock down, some don’t, some wear masks, some don’t, etc. so we arrive to this suboptimal outcome where everyone loses more than if we all cooperated.

for the self-interested individual it’s rational to “defect” (in the language of game theory) even if it ends in greater group losses.

for the group, it’s better of everyone cooperates.

the places that seems to be succeeding at minimizing damage are the ones with either strong government or high altruism enforcing/maximizing cooperation.

so at the moment we’re paying a price for maintaining our individual freedom. we can actually put a number on “the price of freedom”.
Last edited by Alphaville on Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:08 am, edited 1 time in total.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by classical_Liberal »

COVID made me a little money, helped me decide to commit to a ERE-lifestyle (making healthcare jobs more intolerable) and changed some travel preferences in the near term (ie going different places/orders). Although the travel wasn't a written in stone plan before COVID anyway. I have wasted far more time/life energy reading about it and being confused/flustered about the social phenomenon than I have adjusting my life because of it. Over-all it's probably a net zero in my life.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

@Alphaville

Hedge fund managers taking selfies on private yachts saying “We are just fine locking down” sums up the disconnect. Lambasting individualism when the the elites can summon the blunt force of the government to insulate themselves from the negative consequences, is ridiculous to me. But prevailing attitudes have been “Maybe you should blame yourself for not having access to government power” or “You have not read the science textbooks and so you should not be participating in the conversation.”

Wearing a mask and washing my hands is fine, I thank @c_L for the earlier articulations that this is not the bubonic plague and it could only be harmful to hide from the world forever.
Last edited by Mister Imperceptible on Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@MI:

What I don't get is why you don't recognize that you and pretty much every other person who has made their way to this forum is a member of the 90th percentile in one way or another? I just helped a man whose net worth was more than 100 million dollars die of cancer during this epidemic. I don't envy the elites. They aren't as insulated or isolated as you suppose. We all can wind up shitting away our life in a bucket with nobody but hired help and some goofy friend for company.

Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:18 am
Lambasting
who lambasted what?

Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »

anyway i just add a bit of game theory and strategic outcomes to the discussion. since i think it clarifies what people really are talking about. strategies have costs and payoffs.

the investopedia article on nash equilibrium is nice and clear:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/na ... ibrium.asp



eta: just found article about someone looking at that very dynamic in large systems under covid

https://news.umich.edu/game-theory-and- ... -behavior/

jacob
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by jacob »

The penultimate(*) defense is widely available for <$40 at this point. E.g.,
https://www.amazon.com/MSA-815692-Advan ... 005J82646/
https://www.amazon.com/MSA-815369-Advan ... 01730UGRQ/

P100 is 99.8% so $40 is the price to remain disease-free for the last few months until the 95% efficacy (compare to N95 masks+eye shield) become generally available for what will hopefully be around the same price (as far as I understand).

(*) Does not protect the eye-route. Getting infected via the eyes is possible but rare. This should only be a concern insofar one intends to hang around next to an infectee or an unknown for several hours.

Point being, with a solid defense mutual consideration is no longer required. One no longer needs to worry about mask politics anymore. Indeed, this is an example of a market-based technological solution to what is otherwise a social problem.

Riggerjack
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Riggerjack »

Hedge fund managers taking selfies on private yachts saying “We are just fine locking down” sums up the disconnect.
I haven't seen this. Or anything like this.

Which is not to say that this isn't happening, commonly. Just that I haven't seen it, and don't expect to. I wouldn't even know where to look, though I'm sure I could find it.

That may seem contradictory. It's not.

We live in a world with nearly infinite information available. We choose where and what we source, and what/who we pay attention to.

The algorithms only know what we pay attention to, and feed us more of whatever we consume.

Are you responsible for the information you consume? If not you, who?

If you take responsibility for the information you consume, why would you pay any attention to hedge fund managers trolling? How does that make you happier/more informed/better prepared to face 2020?

Or 2021, for that matter.

Alphaville
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Alphaville »

jacob wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:24 am
One no longer needs to worry about mask politics anymore. Indeed, this is an example of a market-based technological solution to what is otherwise a social problem.
thanks for the link. i might order.

i almost commented earlier about how prisoner’s dilemma also applies to climate change policy where unless everyone commits to cooperating there’s an incentive to defect and total outcome is suboptimal.

there we seem to be stuck with the social.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

https://www.businessinsider.com/david-g ... ost-2020-3

@RJ

I am crossing the state line on Thanksgiving and disobeying the state order.

Thank you.

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