COVID topic vol 2

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Qazwer
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Qazwer »

Polio vaccine only cost $2. The logistics tail of world vaccination is not easy especially as the rich nations move on to the next issue. No one during its peaks could have imagined that people would have forgotten about polio here.

chenda
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by chenda »

My understanding is that polio is now extremely rare, a few hundred cases a year worldwide ?

Qazwer
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Qazwer »

@chenda
But that was not fast. It matters how we as a world deal with this to how fast even if a single series of vaccine works for a lifetime was my argument. We have had a treatment for polio for a long time

ducknald_don
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by ducknald_don »

Ego wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:35 pm
I searched and was unable to find news about how the rate of those with antibodies was inflated four fold. Where did you see that?
It was linked from a comment on Hacker News, unfortunately I can't find it again.

Riggerjack
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Riggerjack »

When thinking about a future for C19, it's easy to use the flu as a model.

It's familiar, airborne, world wide, and moves in predictable waves.

But it never gets wiped out, even though we have vaccines.

One major cause for this, is influenza has an animal reservoir. And not just an animal reservoir, but reservoir in domestic animals. Hard to kill the flu, when we are breeding it with our livestock. Hard to isolate livestock from humans, and human populations.

Other diseases we have had a hard time eliminating have reservoirs in mosquito populations (Zika, Yellow Fever, Malaria, etc). Wiping out mosquitos has been a human objective forever, but they just aren't as easy to kill off as bees...

Whereas with C19, it's transmissible one way to cats, but not back (yet). It's transmissible both ways to minks, and possibly their cousins, ferrets, ferret-badgers, etc. But these are raised for fur, not food. The fur raising trade is being wiped out in western countries, anyway. I think the battle against C19 will include the end of western fur farming as part of the strategy.

Concentrating the damage of changes to an unpopular fragment of society is what democracies do well. So our exposure to an animal reservoir for C19 is much smaller than influenza, and set to get smaller.

Now, choosing to keep a human reservoir, by not expanding the vaccine rollout would be dangerous, foolish, and self sabotaging. But I have seen plenty of dangerous, foolish, and self sabotaging actions over the last year. So I'm not ruling it out.

But that is a choice, not an inevitability. That is a human problem, not a viral problem.

Qazwer
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Qazwer »

@Riggerjack malaria was endemic in the US up to about 1950
https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/histo ... on_us.html

Malaria control has known methods for a really long time. I hope COVID is different than other diseases in effort placed for control world wide. History just does not support that the world effort will be that.

BTW your bee analogy LOL - thank you

Riggerjack
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Riggerjack »

Malaria control has known methods for a really long time.
Sure. Drain the swamp, bring in fill, build a suburb. If that doesn't work, spray DDT everywhere. Then do it again.

And still there are mosquitos.

There just isn't the capital, and low ecological standards, to repeat this horror show in places that still have an active Malaria problem. If there were, it would be done by now. Sure we know how to do it, but we don't know how to undo the damage. And nobody wants to pay for it.

This why a mosquito viral reservoir is so hard to deal with.

But who ever heard of someone going to their lake house, and getting bit by a mink?

I'm sure it has happened to somebody. But everyone has personal or secondary experience with mosquito bites.

As disease vectors go, I'll take ferrets over mosquitos, every time.

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fiby41
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by fiby41 »

20 countries received 23 million doses of vaccine starting from 21st January.

These countries include Bangladesh (two million doses), Myanmar (1.7 million doses), Nepal (one million doses), Bhutan (150,000 doses), the Maldives (100,000 doses), Mauritius (100,000 doses), Seychelles (50,000 doses), Sri Lanka (500,000 doses), Bahrain (100,000 doses), Oman (100,000 doses), Afghanistan (500,000 doses), Barbados (100,000 doses) and Dominica (70,000 doses).

The countries that received commercial supplies are Brazil (two million doses), Morocco (six million doses), Bangladesh (five million doses), Myanmar (two million doses), Egypt (50,000 doses), Algeria (50,000 doses), South Africa (one million doses), Kuwait (200,000 doses) and the United Arab Emirates (200,000 doses).

Srivastava declined to go into specifics on whether India will also provide vaccines to Canada, whose Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had taken up the issue with Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a phone call on Wednesday. “Decisions on these supplies will, of course, be calibrated as per domestic production and the requirements of the national vaccination programme,” Srivastava said.

In the case of smaller countries such as the Commonwealth of Dominica, the Indian supplies will be adequate to inoculate almost half of the population of 72,000. The country is now planning its largest vaccination programme that will initially cover frontline workers, senior citizens, lawmakers and cabinet ministers. Dominican Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit said he hadn’t imagined that the prayers of his country would be answered so swiftly. “Being the leader of a small Caribbean island with a population of 72,000 people, I did not fancy my chances of getting such a swift, positive response to my request of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” he said. "One would have thought and understood that in a global pandemic such as this, a nation’s size and might would have been the primary considerations but it is to the credit of Prime Minister Modi that our request was considered on merit and the equality of our people was recognised,” he added.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by thrifty++ »

My god I just found out that Canada only just started a mandatory quarantine for people flying into the country less than a week ago. And only for 3 days.

No wonder Canada is so saturated with virus. NZ has had a shut off border except NZ citizens and mandatory minimum 14 day quarantine pretty much since the beginning. Thats by far the main source of protection.

I am shocked and just assumed Canada had a border like NZ's the whole time. I would be super pissed off going through all the lockdowns there while the govt has essentially kept the tap on full boar for the most obvious source! Whats the point of the lockdowns with that!

Have other countries being doing the same as Canada or more like NZ? What has been going on?

Redo
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Redo »

^ Wait till you find out how badly Canada has fucked up the vaccine distribution.

nomadscientist
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by nomadscientist »

"My god I just found out that Canada only just started a mandatory quarantine for people flying into the country less than a week ago. And only for 3 days.

"No wonder Canada is so saturated with virus."



Is there actually any significant difference between the situation in Canada and that in dozens of other Western countries with random travel restrictions in which the virus is also endemic?

What this situation should have taught the world is the options are "go hard" or "go home." Instead, "smart" people have settled on "every little helps." It really doesn't. Either you don't have a pandemic or you do.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by thrifty++ »

Doing lockdowns while having no or lackluster border controls is like trying to empty a flooding bath with a tea spoon while leaving the taps on.

The border controls are really what seems most important. Shame that hasnt been focused on more in some places.

white belt
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by white belt »

@thrifty++

It’s much easier for a small island country like NZ to close its borders than a larger country with many more airports and borders shared with other countries. Closing borders also doesn’t matter as much if you have widespread community transmission already (like in the USA). Maybe closing borders early on would have made a difference, but we’re way past that point now.

slsdly
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by slsdly »

Pathetic that the federal Canadian government waffled on airports for so long. Some of the provinces instituted travel restrictions, quarantine requirements, particularly the Atlantic provinces -- mandatory 2 week quarantine, you couldn't even go to Newfoundland unless you were a resident or got special permission. However in the end that didn't prevent an outbreak in Newfoundland just after an election got called.

On the vaccine front, I hear much gnashing of teeth about how badly it was bungled (depending on what sports team people cheer for), but very little of actual substance. I don't think any government (federal or provincial) did particularly well, but we aren't exactly producing the vaccine inside our borders. Israel has done quite well by just paying a lot more money per dose to Pfizer to lock in the supply. Canada took the "mutual fund" approach buying some from everyone. Is it really a big deal if it is a few months later?

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Ego
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Ego »

thrifty++ wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:07 pm
The border controls are really what seems most important. Shame that hasnt been focused on more in some places.
I remember watching the videos of the Clade-X pandemic response exercise from 2018 where the military liaison wanted to close the borders but the two infection control experts on the panel were adamant that past experience had proven that border closures were not the correct response.

Each and every time I hear someone indignantly say, "Trust the experts!", I think of it.

Riggerjack
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Riggerjack »

Well, C19 prevention measures effectively killed influenza in Australia, during their flu season. It seems the same here, though flu season continues they May.

Just an observation that unprecedented restrictions have had unprecedented results. Fewer than 1000 detected cases of influenza, at this point. (But for many reasons, this is still an under reported number, I am sure.)

I would post a link, but the best I can do is a WHO report. Or a journalistic interpretation of the same report.

......

But obviously, this is where animal reservoirs make a difference. Wiping out a virus in humans doesn't mean much when we still have the virus running through livestock.

This result would be much more significant, if the animal reservoir were rare, and not in regular contact with humans, as seems the case with C19.

Just food for thought.

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fiby41
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by fiby41 »

"Canada has secured 2 million dosses of the Covishield vaccine from India. With the vaccine now approved in Canada our first shipment of half a million of these doses will arrive within weeks. The remaining dosses are scheduled for delivery within the next few months. This is in addition to the 20 million already secured from Astrazeneca that we will start receiving in spring. There are lot of numbers in there. Bottom line is this from all source Canada will have more than 6 and half million dosses by end of March with tens of millions many more to come between April and June. I want to express my appreciation for the support and partnership of the Indian government in fighting covid19 and helping secure these doses for Canadians." ~Trudeau

Redo
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Redo »

^ Hooray, we'll finally start getting vaccines in spring.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7647625/cana ... n-trudeau/

40th in the world.

ajcoleman22
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by ajcoleman22 »

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamain ... le/2766121

I'm not sure that the flu numbers are low because of the lockdown measures or by the fact that the models they are based on are coming under heavy scrutiny?

Riggerjack
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Riggerjack »

From your link:
From our analysis, we infer that either the CDC’s annual estimates substantially overstate the actual number of deaths caused by influenza or that the current number of COVID-19 counted deaths substantially understates the actual number of deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2, or both.
Um, yes, much inference, and condemnation.

But I am not impressed by the study. First, the primary issue of the study is to compare the reporting of seasonal influenza deaths to C19. It seems different methodologies of reporting were used.

I would expect this. One is a regular, seasonal report, the other is tracking a new disease. If the same methods were used, I would be concerned about why, rather than being comforted by similarities in methodology.

So, 2 different diseases, reported different ways, are supposed to come to the same results? What kind of nonsense is that?

I could be persuaded that something smelled fishy with the numbers, if this same pattern weren't being replicated all over the world.

CDC policy has nothing to do with Australian flu reporting. Off by a hemisphere, and 6 months.

If there is anything I have learned in the last year, it's that though science is awesome, science is hard. Harder than many scientists seem capable of. Even well thought out studies are subject to accidental bias. And C19 brought out a lot of studies that weren't so well thought out.

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