COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

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George the original one
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by George the original one »

Just a few quotes from a fascinating BBC article about how the corona virus might change the world. I'm not sure what to make of them, though my mind says they strike a chord in me.
What Covid-19 is throwing into sharp relief is just how false our beliefs about markets are.
The fact that so many people work pointless jobs is partly why we are so ill prepared to respond to Covid-19. The pandemic is highlighting that many jobs are not essential, yet we lack sufficient key workers to respond when things go bad.
Likewise, we are seeing the breakdown of labour markets. Countries like Denmark and the UK are providing people with an income in order to stop them from going to work.
http://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200 ... -the-world

J_
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by J_ »

@GTOO: yes an inspiring article.

Some time ago some forum members started to study economics (classic) and I was one of them. But I had just read Lean Logic by Flemming, and my feeling already during the first two chapters was and is: The kind of "McConell" economics is misleading, that mindset leads to total disaster (even as it was kind of working). Around me I see young couples/families of which both parents wrestling with their jobs to live the luxury life what society "requires".
The workings of Lean Logic had already internalized in my mind. So I stopped studying the classic economics. And I wonder what I can do to live more like the ideas preferred also by the author of this article. A transfer to use capitalism in more social way. How can we reach such transition?
Last edited by J_ on Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by IlliniDave »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:02 am
@IDave:

We don’t have to die. We can go to the woods. The weather will be nice by the end of the first wave. If/when lockdown loosens I am going totally rural hermit. You have WAAAY more money than me, so if I can do it so can you!
There's certainly that option. Assuming I can still travel from here to there, of course, and that I manage to sidestep the reaper on the first wave. I just don't know if I can jettison all my family responsibilities (perceived responsibilities, at minimum).

However, that move totally totally resonates with my personality (there's a reason that since the beginning I've called the place my hideout).

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fiby41
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by fiby41 »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:06 pm
For instance, could start by moving everybody age 16 to 22 into work Corp dorms in the abandoned hotels and college campuses, away from anybody over 50.
Moscow started lockdown this way. Disabling prepaid card usage of students and those above 60 on public transport.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

I was being a bit tongue in cheek, but I am in favor of offering UBI/ low level SS payments to everyone over 55, so they can surrender their place in the workforce to the vigorous youth.

J_
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by J_ »

Augustus wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:46 pm
All of us on this forum are prone to be out of touch with the masses, like George bush at the grocery store.
In most EU countries all people has a last resort: monthly state money if their income falls below a certain level. It must be possible, if they want, to do the same in de USA.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by Bankai »

Augustus wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:46 pm
Further, when do riots and theft of groceries start occuring? Lots of jobs are now gone.
Already happening in Italy.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by George the original one »

Augustus wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:46 pm
Further, when do riots and theft of groceries start occuring? Lots of jobs are now gone.
Why do you think wise governors & mayors have put moratoriums on evictions for failure to pay rent?

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by George the original one »

Augustus wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:40 pm
There are two options, 1) lockdown + helicopter money + no bills or 2) lift the lock down next month. Lockdown by itself isn't possible.
Oregon is mostly already at #1 with the help of the Feds.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by George the original one »

Augustus wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:58 pm
The one time check for 2900?
Unemployment, food banks, etc. And I'm pretty certain there will be more federal helicopter money. Now this isn't going to apply to all states.

Toska2
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by Toska2 »

Michigan's unemployment website states that if laid off from Covid19 to wait for instructions, do not apply now.

Helicopter money and unemployment delayed for two more weeks? I laugh at the notion there won't be riots and a fire sale.

Even with restarting the economy; Covid19, the disrupted supply chain and the tight money situation is going to dampen any recovery till 2021.

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by ertyu »

Agree, @Augustus. An underrated benefit to the public works route is also that it's excellent at dealing with the problem of a demoralized population which dislikes and mistrusts the authorities. There's something to be said, on the part of workers, for not just having a job but experiencing that job as meaningful as you're literally building and improving your country. Makes people come together. Also, for those not directly involved in construction etc., the result of investing in public works is visible - the nice park, the good road - in a way that a bail-out package to Boeing isn't. As far as the general public goes, when you bail out a bank or a company, the money disappears into a black hole. The benefits to the bail-out are often abstract. Few people can actually understand the mechanics behind how they help, who they help, and how they were (or were not) the best way to help. A visible public works project, on the other hand, makes people see directly how things are improving and it makes that improvement much more tangible to them. It makes their support of you as a government much more tangible. The US needs this right now, imo.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Trump is already calling for 3 trillion for infrastructure projects. Almost certain to go through Congress.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by IlliniDave »

Infrastructure is something that definitely needs attention and will be helpful in the medium and longer term. It's inflated a lot in a short time. Initially congress was talking slightly under $1T, then DT was talking more like $2T, and since then has apparently upped it to $3T. That's a hefty chunk. Hopefully it'll gt used efficiently and not used to fund a bunch of stuff of dubious value wrt the public good. Not optimistic that it'll make it though two chambers of congress and two political parties with a laser focus on funding real infrastructure.

Jason

Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by Jason »

IlliniDave wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:38 am
Infrastructure is something that definitely needs attention and will be helpful in the medium and longer term. It's inflated a lot in a short time. Initially congress was talking slightly under $1T, then DT was talking more like $2T, and since then has apparently upped it to $3T. That's a hefty chunk. Hopefully it'll gt used efficiently and not used to fund a bunch of stuff of dubious value wrt the public good. Not optimistic that it'll make it though two chambers of congress and two political parties with a laser focus on funding real infrastructure.
Jim Cramer was interviewing CEO of Marvell Technology and made the point that infrastructure is no longer viewed as merely roads/bridges but also includes technology (especially after this event). Tech will lobby that 5G be included. I could see it expanding to chip makers as well. Less cars on the more road, more Zoom video.

mathiverse
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by mathiverse »

Aren't the riots due to non-lockdown events? There were riots in Baltimore in 2015 for similar reasons.

CS
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by CS »

Yes, riots this week are for a different reason.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

I predict there will also be hurricanes this year.

horsewoman
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Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by horsewoman »

Of course it might play a part, but from an European perspective America is a pretty violent place in general where a lot of things might kick off riots at any given time, or at least incidents where people end up dead by violence...

Also, I belive there is something like the "Texas sharpshooter fallacy" at work here.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_s ... er_fallacy

Jason

Re: COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

Post by Jason »

Rodney King wasn't just about Rodney King and I think these riots weren't just about George Floyd. Things are always too complex to reduce to single issue causation. However, I think they were mainly due to George Floyd (I don't see LeBron James coming out to support those who merely can't pay their rent) and would have taken place irregardless of whether the country was in lockdown. His death was beyond abhorrent. But bumping a thread in order to take a victory lap for predicting a thoroughly predictable rise of social disorder due to a continued lockdown that was precipitated by a murder who's antecedents were not primarily based in the lockdown itself? There's some abhorrence to be found in that as well.

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