COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

[7Wannabe5]

It’s interesting (weird) to me that the individual states seem more like unique political entities than when I was a child. Walter Cronkite speaks to all of us no more.

[chenda]

@7w5 - In my very limited knowledge Michigan has struck me as a very safe state to be in, in terms of climate change and natural disasters at least. And if it was a country you would be as big as Sweden

[7Wannabe5]

@chenda:

Yeah, that’s my take too. Lot’s of ecological assets and reasonable population density.

What I was thinking about was the recent threats made to our Governor, given rumors of possible V.P. selection. What would happen if on top of current situation a targeted assassination like that were to happen?

[IlliniDave]

It’s interesting (weird) to me that the individual states seem more like unique political entities than when I was a child. Walter Cronkite speaks to all of us no more.

Ha, yeah, there's some truth to that, although I grew up 10-15 miles from a state line across which the drinking age was 18 and fireworks were legal (versus 21 and illegal at home). I think politics are more divisive now than 35-40 years ago, and at minimum there's a two camp divide. Red state versus blue state (if the terms existed back then) generally didn't mean a whole lot in 1980 because most places functioned under compromise in the approximate middle. Now truces are not allowed. You see a lot more "Agree with me or I'll punch you in the nose" (primarily meant figuratively but sadly it's sometimes literal) than what I remember. But that could be just the hazy idealization of a time grown increasingly distant.

[Jason]

The country is primed for secession movements. Trump loses the election to Biden in a Gore/W manner. Trump claims its rigged. He hires the ghost of Roy Cohn and takes it to court. You have a transition of power crisis. He says if he loses he's going to take his Red states with him. Red States unite. He loses in court. We're off and running.

I'm not an alarmist or a fear monger or a panic guy/doom and gloom guy, but I don't think its unreasonable to say that Covid 19 hyphen BLM is greasing the skids for absolute political mayhem come the fall. It's like 2020 is just a burning wick. With the conversation now moving towards the disabling of power structures i.e. police funding, people are not thinking about what they they are wishing for because now the police have been politicized and they know which side supports them. Nancy Pelosi can afford an armed security team. I don't know about everyone else. Hopefully its avoided but who would be shocked at such a thing.

[chenda]

@Jason What side do you think the military would take ? Would they stage some kind of backroom coup or are they as divided like everybody else ?

[Freedom_2018]

No kidding...maybe the way to avoid it is to re-elect the incumbent

Only semi joking here. After seeing the nonsense and mayhem unleashed in the wake of the Minneapolis death, unless something changes by November, I think I might see myself standing in line at the polling stations voting for the incumbent, even if I find myself throwing up in my mouth while doing so.

[classical_Liberal]

Ha, yeah, there's some truth to that, although I grew up 10-15 miles from a state line across which the drinking age was 18 and fireworks were legal (versus 21 and illegal at home).

I live about 5 miles from another state. A month ago if I did not have papers with me during travel when I crossed the river, I risked arrest and detainment for simply being outside my home. On my side everything was standard USA normal. The divides between states are getting larger and larger. And I'm not talking simply ideologically anymore. Laws and lifestyles are increasing different, daily life in one feels different that in another. A couple years ago I would have not considered politics in which state to live in, today it's probably number one on my list. I don't want to get caught on the wrong side of the border during the next crisis. Less regulated countries friendly to US expats are getting more and more appealing as well.

@jason is talking about secession movements, I find this very likely in the near term. Probably not successful though, but it may create an atmosphere of appeasement . Where states are able to maintain at least some of their constitutionally held states rights. But it'd be a baindaid as lifestyles and laws continue to draw further apart.

[7Wannabe5]

The ALDI my sister shops at in Chicago was looted. I am wondering if the looters were slowed down by having to put a quarter in to free the shopping cart?

[classical_Liberal]

I am wondering if the looters were slowed down by having to put a quarter in to free the shopping cart?

Those carts were probably the most secure thing in the city!

[chenda]

I live about 5 miles from another state. A month ago if I did not have papers with me during travel when I crossed the river, I risked arrest and detainment for simply being outside my home.

Presumably that's just a corona thing; you don't normally need a 'passport' to cross the borders ?

[classical_Liberal]

@Chenda
Correct, and it wasn't a "passport", I could cross at will, just at my own risk. My point is that of two adjoining states one became a "papers please" state almost immediately, the other went on as normal with targeted interventions only. A side note being that my state is doing much, much better with containing and reacting to COVID than the adjoining states despite it's long term totalitarian lockdown.

This is why I don't want to get caught with an address in the "wrong" state next time such a crisis occurs. If your not from the US it's hard to describe how freely we move across state borders. Even though some laws are slightly different, you can normally move around at will without too much concern. The COVID situation simply highlighted disparity between leadership, and how quickly that can lead to lifestyle changes. This is not something we are used to in the US.

[chenda]

@classical_liberal No I fully understand how easy it normally is, I've done plenty of road trips there Its the same in much of Europe normally, there are no borders on the ground nowadays and sometimes you're not sure what country you've drifted into until you realise people are speaking a different language. (Obviously it's not analogous US states in many other ways)

[classical_Liberal]

@Chenda, next time road trip near me! I'd love to do a European tour, it'll happen eventually.

Just to clarify my original point more. Some US states decided to make sweeping changes on a whim with limited data, irregardless of the consequences to individual liberties and second order effects. While others did just as well, if not better, with targeted interventions, designed to minimize the loss of individual rights, specific to individual areas within the state, and considered second order effects. While some people may take comfort with sweeping government intervention, I do not. So to each their own. COVID was very much a litmus test for how future crisis may be handled at the state level. I very much want to make sure the state I live in matches my values in such matters, but hold no grudges towards those who disagree. As long as there are still some places in my home country with classical_liberal values, I'm happy.

[IlliniDave]

Presumably that's just a corona thing; you don't normally need a 'passport' to cross the borders ?

It's a c19 thing. I still keep my "papers" in the car but haven't "needed" them since the shelter-in-place order in my state was lifted. Never needed to produce them even during the order. I don't even know if the state required them but my employer issued them anyway (operations in lots of states). Purpose was to id me as an "essential worker". Getting them felt like something from an old behind-the-iron-curtain spy movie.

[IlliniDave]

I live about 5 miles from another state. A month ago if I did not have papers with me during travel when I crossed the river, I risked arrest and detainment for simply being outside my home. On my side everything was standard USA normal. The divides between states are getting larger and larger. ...

I've been whining for two years that going forward political risk is the one that most concerns me. I didn't envision what we're seeing to be sure, but things just seemed "not right". I guess in my mind differences in lifestyle and ideology are related. Similar to your observation, I never really saw state A and state B as fundamentally different, and would typically favor one over the other based on how it's situated geographically relative to places I want to be near. But it seems like cost of living and tax gaps between states are growing larger, and the last three months have brought into sharp focus the social divergence among states that's accelerated over the last 3-5 years. I've never given any serious thought to becoming an expat, and I think the only place I'd go is Canada. I just don't think any overseas location would be better for me.

[Jason]

(@) Chenda

Ex-high ranking military such as Powell and Mattis are expressing their issues with Trump, including but not limited the calling for military deployment against the protestors. It was a breaking point for some as it offends the basic idea of the military to protect the country from external threats not its own citizens. Cotton's OP-Ed in The NY Times got the heir apparent to the top job axed. We know that Trump views all government agencies as existing to do his bidding. The fact that he has staffed the high ranking military ranks with likeminded people is kind of scary if things got out of hand. How it would play out is beyond my pay grade. Someone with military experience might have a better idea.

What is the "Reddest" state? Wyoming? Some opened space place like that seems most suitable for a place for the secessionist's to plant their flag. Although Trump would push for Florida so Maro Lago could be the new White House and you would think Melania would prefer it there. I can hear his first press conference to announce the opening of Trump America. "They are calling me the new Jefferson Davis. I take that as a compliment. He was a great man. I loved his show. Although my apartment was bigger."

[flying_pan]

I am kind of confused about how we collectively want to go forward. It seems that people had enough and basically continue their lives as before (I think all western countries "cancelled" COVID now).

And I fail to grasp where is the problem here. Yes, people are dying, but how are we supposed to prevent it? Consider USA, for example: I don't think the virus could be eradicated fully through the quarantine (enough people to do otherwise "just because it is my right"), so it will be around no matter what for quite some time, unless disappearing naturally. In this case, and considering that hospitals are not overwhelmed, what is the harm of reopening? I understand risks, but I am not sure how many deaths are truly preventable. Also, personally I am doing self-quarantine from March (and will do at least a month more), so I am not advocating for going out right now.

As for measures against spreading (masks, not full capacity at restaurants, etc), I think it is mostly security theater. Some people might protect themselves, but in general, people here are irresponsible, so I don't think it will help a lot.

Overall, I think we kind of accepted that it is here and will kill many people, but we are not willing to change our way of life right now.

[jacob]

When drilling down by county, population density is a strong (the strongest I know) predictor of red vs blue. The highest densities are 90% blue and the lowest densities are 90% red. 50/50 is achieved at a density corresponding to the suburbs before the exurbs.

In terms of pandemics, it's also not hard to grok why people living within easy exposure of each other would prefer more "distance regulation" than people whose nearest neighbor is beyond the hill half a mile down the road.

As for culture, I found American Nations by Colin Woodard to be quite informative since I discovered it. There's a map here: https://www.businessinsider.com/the-11- ... tes-2015-7 ... (The reddest states are practically and not surprisingly all found in "The Far West" nation. There are one or two additional books along similar lines, but I forget the titles. I might be conflating them, but one has a slightly different map(*) and the other attempts to pick the optimal "nation" to live in based on your cultural preferences.

(*) IIRC, the Far West was called the Empty Quadrant or something like that. Could be an earlier version of Woodard. Perhaps someone else knows?

Add: It's The Nine Nations of North America: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nine_ ... th_America

It's not hard to imagine states going their own way in ways that mirror the distinct US cultures. I mean, we saw various (two? three) "interstate pacts" being formed to coordinate their reopening once it became clear that federal leadership was flailing.

[chenda]

@cl - you can give me a tour )

@illionisdave - interesting I didn't know that. I recall when I was 17 in San Francisco the waiter said to my dad 'I cant serve your daughter alcohol, but I can serve you a bottle of wine and an extra tumbler and what you do with that is your own business'. Perhaps its particularly permissive there. Same way France seemed so slack on ID in the 90s that fireworks, alcohol and adult magazines were all readily available, which made for some interesting school trips. I'm sure it's not as lax now.

@Jason - Thanks. Having the option of moving to a safer location if possible seems like a good precaution, especially if you can get a second passport.