COVID-19

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slowtraveler
Posts: 880
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:06 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

@Sclass
I see that behavior daily in Thailand. It's the norm. I hear it's much worse in China.

In Wuhan, after knowing of the outbreak, 40,000 families gathered together to try setting the world record for largest banquet. I'm sure serving utensils weren't strictly enforced.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/worl ... virus.html

Hear coughing everywhere. Planning my exit. Will wear good mask and goggles for flight. Will self quarantine upon my arrival for 2 weeks to be safe.

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Ego
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Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Going into the weekend there were 12 labs able to process tests in the US. As of tonight there are 40 or 41. By sometime this week the CDC claims there will be more than 100 labs processing tests.

The number of positives is bound to skyrocket.

Has anyone seen any preparations for large-scale isolation of those who tested positive?
Is the increase in the number of positives baked into the market?

sky
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Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2011 2:20 am
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

The level of fear is high enough that people who get sick with flu like conditions will not get anyone willing to help them.

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Sclass
Posts: 1935
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:15 pm
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

Ego wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:09 pm
Is the increase in the number of positives baked into the market?
Probably not baked in. But I’m not buying options or shorting. What legitimate testing will do is give visibility where there has previously been uncertainty. Stock prices may not go the obvious way.

ertyu
Posts: 948
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

Sclass wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:06 pm
Probably not baked in. But I’m not buying options or shorting. What legitimate testing will do is give visibility where there has previously been uncertainty. Stock prices may not go the obvious way.
Buy the rumor sell the news, but in reverse this time

Lucky C
Posts: 561
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Lucky C »

@sky And contagious enough so that if one family member gets it, the rest has a good chance of getting it, unless the first member was immediately confined to their own room with bathroom.

So in my position where we have a one year old, have cases near us already, and can easily self isolate, it only makes sense to do so now. Even if the odds are high that it will be "only flu" for our demographic, who's going to help take care of our little one if we both have it and lack the energy to even get up off the couch? I'd be willing to take loads of precautions to avoid a month-long bout of regular flu as it is.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Sclass wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:06 pm
What legitimate testing will do is give visibility where there has previously been uncertainty.
There are times when uncertainty is better than knowing the truth.

naturelover
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:39 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by naturelover »

I suspect there are thousands of cases out there and we only know the tip of the iceberg. Hence extra caution is a good idea.

DW works at a hospital and they haven't said a peep about COVID-19. Baffles me that they aren't preparing staff for the inevitable.

I'm interested to see if flights in the US are going to be restricted at some point. Meanwhile, my dipshit boss is scheduling a work conference for the entire cross-country team to get together in a month or so. My bet its cancelled - if it is not, I'll think about not going as its completely nonessential to the running of our affairs.

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Sclass
Posts: 1935
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:15 pm
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

Ego wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:43 am
There are times when uncertainty is better than knowing the truth.
;) as long as I’m the guy who knows the truth and the rest of the people are uncertain.

AnalyticalEngine
Posts: 305
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

My employer sent out a business continuity plan. We've been instructed to take our laptops home every night in case we suddenly have to work from home for a prolong period of time. We're also supposed to self quarantine for 14 days if we have any reason to believe we've been exposed or if we've just returned from high risk travel.

I had a coworker return from India who mentioned they were temp screened at the airport and had a throat swab taken.

tonyedgecombe
Posts: 369
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2012 2:11 pm
Location: Oxford, UK Walkscore: 3

Re: COVID-19

Post by tonyedgecombe »

naturelover wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:46 am
I suspect there are thousands of cases out there and we only know the tip of the iceberg. Hence extra caution is a good idea.
I wouldn't jump to that conclusion yet, the UK has tested 13,500 people so far and only had 40 positive results.

AnalyticalEngine
Posts: 305
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Interesting analysis from the WHO press conference today. They basically said that if this had been influenza, it would have spread much faster and containment would be more impossible. This makes sense based on other things I have read. Flu is a much more rapid illness than covid because you get sick within 12 to 72 hours of exposure. Covid takes several days to weeks to cause illness. This means the overwhelming of infrastructure is less severe than with pandemic flu. WHO still even believes containment is possible... if everyone acts like China. That scale of containment is probably politically unfeasible elsewhere.

Lucky C
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Lucky C »

So then what's the point of R0 if WHO is claiming a virus with a much lower R0 would have spread faster than one with a higher R0?
And is WHO implying COVID-19 cannot spread if not showing symptoms?

AnalyticalEngine
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Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

As far as I understand it, R0 is just the number of people the average person infects. Does it account for the speed in which that happens? Or is that doubling time? I think WHO is basically trying to say containment is technically possible because China did contain it. Now if that's politically or practically possible is another story.

naturelover
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:39 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by naturelover »

tonyedgecombe wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:05 pm
I wouldn't jump to that conclusion yet, the UK has tested 13,500 people so far and only had 40 positive results.
Cool. I stand corrected (which I'm glad for).

black_son_of_gray
Posts: 452
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:39 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by black_son_of_gray »

AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:59 pm
I think WHO is basically trying to say containment is technically possible because China did contain it.
Started in China. Now in 70+ countries. I don't think I'm going out on a limb to say that it wasn't successfully contained.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

The first positive case in NYC (Manhattan) is still symptomatic but is recovering at home.

Meanwhile King County, WA is purchasing a motel to quarantine those who test positive.

It seems different areas are handling positive cases in different ways.

ZAFCorrection
Posts: 366
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:49 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by ZAFCorrection »

This is starting to remind of radio promotions where the first 5 callers get free tickets. Except this time the tickets are for a (not) free trip to containment theatre. In a few months, people will probably come to terms with the fact that the virus is everywhere, and then the infected can get on with their lives just like anyone else getting over the flu.

So I'd argue prepping should be geared towards getting sick later, not avoiding getting sick at all.

AnalyticalEngine
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Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

@bsog - Cases have been exported to other countries, but what I mean is they stopped the epicenter from taking over the entire country. That is, they stopped every city inside China from going Wuhan. So what Dr. Tedros is saying is that other countries should be as aggressive as China was to Wuhan in order to attempt to contain the virus.

Now the political or practical ability to be as aggressive as China elsewhere is another story.

@ZAFC - The purpose of early containment and social distancing is to smooth the epidemic peak so not everyone gets sick and goes to the hospital at once. The only thing that can save an individual sans vaccine is herd immunity. Basically where everyone got it but you. So while total avoidance is difficult, they probably won't give up with containment efforts until the epidemic is over in order to smooth the curve.

I'm personally prepping for the effects of containment measures, like being unable to leave, as well as the possibility if I get ill.

Jason
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Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:37 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

Ego wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:39 pm
Meanwhile King County, WA is purchasing a motel to quarantine those who test positive.

A bunch of Corona cases doing cannonballs of their balconies into a Motel 6 swimming pool. Sounds like a plan.

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