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Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:39 am
by jacob
Sclass mentioned similar enforcement restrictions in the DIY mask thread. I already carry both because I have no interest in getting into a longer argument/explanation about my add-on exhalation filter vs a cloth mask.

Given the different situations one encounters. I'd presume that in a controlled environment, everybody would wear masks anyway, so I'm okay with switching to cloth. Whereas in a sloppy environment with a mix of maskless and masked humans, I'd get to keep my P100. In either case the protection for me is high.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:07 am
by Viktor K
Our solution to this has been keeping our N99, vented vog masks on, with a surgical mask to double up with somewhere in pack.

I get that the valve means exposing others, but I prefer the n99 protection.

Also on mine, the exhaust valve doesn’t pop open without good effort / I am exercising or exerting myself. So for normal use, I assume still protects others as well as if not better than cloth/surgical.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:15 pm
by AnalyticalEngine
@Hristo Botev - I'm a bit hazy on the details, so take this with a grain of salt, but iirc, one of the main things about the affordable care act was prohibiting insurance companies from charging you higher premiums based on preexisting conditions. Being obese, having high blood pressure, etc all counts as a preexisting condition, and so they can't charge higher premiums for that. Heck, in some states, they can't even charge you higher premiums based on your age.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:44 pm
by jacob
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/27/cov ... rt-damage/

Open link to actual paper in the statnews link.
statnews wrote: One study examined the cardiac MRIs of 100 people who had recovered from Covid-19 and compared them to heart images from 100 people who were similar but not infected with the virus. Their average age was 49 and two-thirds of the patients had recovered at home. More than two months later, infected patients were more likely to have troubling cardiac signs than people in the control group: 78 patients showed structural changes to their hearts, 76 had evidence of a biomarker signaling cardiac injury typically found after a heart attack, and 60 had signs of inflammation.
The CV19 group was identified by testing positive on a standard swab test. People who were already identified as cardiac patients were excluded. The groups was thus comprised of people who tested positive with no known prior heart conditions.

That's worse cardiac signs than people in the control group after it was adjusted for pre-existing risk-factors like hypertension, diabetes, smoking, asthma, etc. So unless, there's some unknown-unknown risk factor that the statistical elimination failed to capture ...
paper wrote: Unlike these previous studies, our findings reveal that significant cardiac involvement occurs independently of the severity of original presentation and persists beyond the period of acute presentation, with no significant trend toward reduction of imaging or serological findings during the recovery period. Our findings may provide an indication of potentially considerable burden of inflammatory disease in large and growing parts of the population and urgently require confirmation in a larger cohort.
... meaning effects linger unchanged for at least 2 months. Given how heart damage appears common, the following the precautionary principle seems to be in order.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:45 pm
by Sclass
jacob wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:39 am
Sclass mentioned similar enforcement restrictions in the DIY mask thread. I already carry both because I have no interest in getting into a longer argument/explanation about my add-on exhalation filter vs a cloth mask.
Good tip. I’m carrying some cloth masks (w/Filti liners) and some surgical masks in my car as spares now. I haven’t been hassled for the elastomer p100 respirator yet but the reasons against them is more commonly encountered online.

I get stopped by at least one person and asked about my 3M 6200 every time I go shopping. All compliments on the quality and often inquiries on where to get one.

At this point locally people are just happy to see a face covering. We still have people refusing to mask up. Especially outdoors. SoCal is very different than the Bay Area where they’ve spoken out against the valves.

So many people are wearing those neoprene masks from Amazon with the plastic exhaust valves on the front around my area. Nobody is stopping them. A friend recently stopped me to chat while wearing one of these. He went on and on about his C19 a symptomatic wife. :x
I can see the issue.

Image

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:25 am
by Peanut
jacob wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:44 pm
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/27/cov ... rt-damage/

Open link to actual paper in the statnews link.


One study examined the cardiac MRIs of 100 people who had recovered from Covid-19 and compared them to heart images from 100 people who were similar but not infected with the virus. Their average age was 49 and two-thirds of the patients had recovered at home. More than two months later, infected patients were more likely to have troubling cardiac signs than people in the control group: 78 patients showed structural changes to their hearts, 76 had evidence of a biomarker signaling cardiac injury typically found after a heart attack, and 60 had signs of inflammation.
I skimmed the article last week but afterwards I wasn't clear on the basic question I had, which was were these values 0,0,0 for he control group or was that info not available/given?

--
7w5 asked a while ago if those of us skeptics would be willing to revise our initial assessments. The Georgia camp news last week was very startling to me. I had put a lot of stock in studies such as: https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/ ... 2020004879

So I am definitely adjusting my priors.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:44 am
by jacob
They used two control groups. A healthy (non-hypertensive, non-medicated) group for which the values were 0,0,... and a risk-factor adjusted group taking various comorbidities into account. So basically three groups:
1) Random people who had tested positive for COVID.
2) Healthy non-random people who had tested negative.
3) Random people who had tested negative for COVID.
paper wrote: Taken together, we demonstrate cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%) with recent COVID-19 illness, independent of pre-existing conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis. These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-termcardiovascular consequences of COVID-19.
My bold. Some statistics were involved in arriving at that figure since they did not infect a random group of healthy and/or comorbid people to see what would happen. Sample sizes were on the order of 50-100 ppl.

The actual paper gives more detail: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaca ... le/2768916 (table 1). (The pdf is more readable.)

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:00 am
by Peanut
Thanks for that. It's still difficult for me to assess the significance of the study. I mean, it sounds terrible. But what do these hearts look like six months from now? Do recovered pneumonia patients have similar markers?

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:06 am
by jacob
I guess we'll see in 6 months for a follow-up study now that people are paying attention.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:50 am
by 7Wannabe5
One thing that I think is very important issue with school openings is the fact that the current number of school nurses is very low and this job has largely been taken on by school clerical staff with virtually no training. Even in a normal situation, in an elementary school with a few hundred students there will be a near constant stream of sick or “playing sick” kids into the office throughout the day. Who is going to take responsibility for determining whether third grader likely has Covid, strep throat, just allergies, or just wants to go home and play video games? I can’t imagine the situation as being anything but a logistical nightmare.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 4:23 pm
by chenda
Has there been any moves by certain states to close off their borders with surrounding states, if that's even legal ? I'm thinking Europe had an advantage in been able to resurrect it's old borders to slow transmission.

Hawaii seems to have minimal cases, unsurprisingly. (I thought Rhode Island should then I realised most of it isn't actually an island)

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 4:30 pm
by jacob
@chenda - New York enforces some level of self-quarantine for out of state visitors and returning New Yorkers.

See https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid ... l-advisory

Most states are on the list now. Basically any state that's orange or worse: https://covidactnow.org/?s=830154

Add: Looks like Chicago has one too https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/c ... order.html ... not sure exactly how this is enforced. Usually there will be a toll booth at each state border and they could be "taking names and numbers" there. It's obviously trivial for air travel. However, it's also possible to travel between states along other routes, so I don't know ...

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 5:24 pm
by chenda
@Jacob Interesting. I saw that patch of green and found Vermont seems to have done an uniquely excellent job in fighting the virus, and seems to have some kind of border monitoring stations:

https://vtdigger.org/2020/04/06/vermont ... -covid-19/

I found this opinion piece interesting as I had no idea just how autonomous American states are. That they even have their own armies really surprised me.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-co ... oronavirus

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:51 pm
by nomadscientist
It would be more interesting to see the heart inflammation stats normalised to people who recently had flu.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Aug 08, 2020 8:17 pm
by thrifty++
New Zealand has now had 100 days with no community transmission.

There are 23 active cases currently but those are all in quarantine and are returning NZ citizens/permanent residents who have recently returned from overseas. They are under strict quarantine and not allowed out. There have also been 0 new covid cases in the last 3 days.

Im feeling lucky to be in NZ at the moment as things seem very unexposed here. Like in a safe little bubble in the middle of nowhere. Things have been very normal here for months. With everything functioning as per normal. The economy seems to be far less impacted than expected. Unemployment stats are recently out and its only 4%. This is actually a reduction from the March quarter of 4.2%. NZ dollar is actually at its highest in the last year. Unfortunately, property prices are also increasing and reaching new record highs.

The govt has recently been telling everyone to not be complacent and to stock up on masks. This made people sceptical as to whether the govt has not told people something about an outbreak. But that turns out not to have been the case. It is probably more likely because of the recent rapid outbreak that occurred in the state of Victoria, Australia, and wanting to manage any similar outbreak here really swiftly to avoid it getting out of hand as it has done in Victoria. Stangely, for the first time in a month, I saw people wearing masks in the supermarket today. A lot of N95 masks have been manufactured in NZ now. I ordered 10 of them before they end up getting sold out following the govt mask announcements.

It is difficult to be sure the virus can be kept out of NZ though. The quarantine measures are getting increasingly strict. But its seems the rest of the world is now saturated in the virus and so many NZ citizens are trying to come back. So a lot more people coming back now bring it with them. I think that NZ govt is trying to manage and restrict the amount that can come back at any one time so that the quarantine is more manageable.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Aug 08, 2020 10:28 pm
by classical_Liberal
@nomadscientist
I had the exact same thought. These are tests people just don't normally get after being ill. The trop's and BNP's are at yawn levels for someone used to working in an acute cardiac unit, but that's my brains bias. Also of note, the CRP was higher in the COVID cohort P <.001, so maybe their bodies weren't quite done with the fight yet and permanence should not be implied. Anyway, at least this is a good study. A big step up from others posted, thanks @jacob.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Aug 09, 2020 8:05 am
by CS
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/heal ... cines.html

I'm being blocked from the article on my computer (to grab quotes) but read it on the phone last night. Apparently, analysis shows reduced risk with recent pneumonia (28% ish I think) shot and a reduction in the 40's for recent Polio shots. Maybe that is why kids are doing better. I looked at my records and had five (five!) polio shots as a child. They really didn't want kids to get polio.

They recommend pneumonia shots when you hit fifty so those with better insurance, better care are going to be more like to get those.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Aug 09, 2020 9:39 pm
by Solvent
I'm still following news for Australia even though I'm not there and it looks like I won't be able to visit family for quite some time. A few things are really interesting to me in that some of the restrictions I find fairly unexpected.

Maybe of interest to those in the USA - of course, although our federations are very different, Australian states have closed borders with each other. This is something I didn't even realise they would have the power to do, and it causes some quite unfortunate events: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... ansit-deal

As thrifty pointed out, there is a serious outbreak in Victoria. Australia as a whole seemed to be handling the crisis remarkably well, but these slip ups in Victoria have now potentially put the whole country in serious danger. I wouldn't rule out that it can be brought under control, Australia's government is generally fairly competent and I'd like to think the populace can be serious-minded about this, but the situation is definitely looking quite bad for now.

The Australian government has also disallowed Australians fromleaving the country. Legally, I'm unsure of what the basis is for them doing this but it has passed without comment from any lawyers so I guess there's a law, precedent or something written down somewhere that allows this. Practically, the government has remarked that this is because they need to control the inflow of people (since incoming passengers are being quarantined), and allowing people to leave just means for the most part they'll try to come back after a short holiday and then be in distress and potentially need consular help after they realise flights are being cancelled, are too expensive, or can't afford quarantine on return. They've also said it's to prevent ongoing spread of COVID to other countries, which sure, that's something you can say but it doesn't really line up with any realpolitik.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:32 am
by ajcoleman22
chenda wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 4:23 pm
Hawaii seems to have minimal cases, unsurprisingly. (I thought Rhode Island should then I realised most of it isn't actually an island)
I looked this up today and Hawaii seems to be having an uptick in cases which is really surprising because they have locked down harder than any state.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:02 pm
by George the original one
Texas, Florida, & California account for roughly half of the current weekly USA COVID-19 death rate. 47.8% of 7373 deaths, if you want more precision. They also account for 39.7% of weekly new cases as their new cases have tapered off from last month's peak.