COVID-19

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7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Not to be a stickler, but the function describing the growth always makes use of an exponent.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

thrifty++ wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:22 pm
I remember when it was the beginning people were saying its just a flu with 5,000 people dead and more people die from other things. But the patterns were what was concerning. Now some people are saying there is ony around 400,000 people dead so its nothing to worry about.
I ran these numbers last night. In my home state in the US, someone under 60 has a 8X higher statistical chance of dying in a motor vehicle accident than of COVID. Yet there is no massive movement to ban all motor vehicle travel. So, you can see how risk adjusted policies seem like the best course under certain circumstances. It's not that it's a not a "big deal", it's just that there are lots of "big deals" to consider. PCR testing shows 0.3% of the state has been infected thus far, but early serology testing indicates greater than 3% have antibodies. Plus, we've had an open economy with basic risk control policies for about six weeks and cases remain flat with a decreasing active case load and 100% contact tracing. While I'm absolutely on board with protecting and helping those at risk who chose to isolate do so, I no longer think COVID risk should be a prevailing motivator for the states, or my personal, policies.

shemp
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Joined: Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:17 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by shemp »

thrifty++ wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:22 pm
...5 million dead?
CDC says 2,813,503 died in USA in 2017 (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm). Probably similar number in 2018 and 2019. Year after year, more people dying than in all US wars combined. Why was no one talking about these mass deaths back in 2017, 2018 and 2019? Where did they stack all the bodies?

I've been away for a while, largely because I didn't want to be exposed to the stupidity of namby-pamby nitwits who outnumber smart people in this forum. But I'll stop in briefly to shed a little light.

Metric of interest is not how many died or will die of covid, but rather how many years of life were lost. Assumimg life expectancy of 80 in USA, then it takes 60 people age 79 dying to equal one person aged 20 dying (20:1 ratio if 60yo, 80:1 if newborn, etc). Life insurance companies do good job of estimating remaining life expectancy for large groups of people based on a few parameters (current age, sex, bmi, pre-existing conditions). So take all the people who died of covid, plug their info into a life insurance calculator to compute expected years of life remaining without covid, then sum up to get total years of life lost to covid, then divide by total US population to get years lost per person to covid. Result is probably under one day.

Better result would take into account loss of life due to lockdowns and other measures taken to protect against covid. Result would likely show that deaths caused trying to protect from covid greatly outweigh deaths caused by covid itself.

I'm aware that cold statistics are no consolation to those who die of covid. But that's true about all sorts of things. Innocent people are run down by careless drivers all the time, but we don't outlaw motor vehicles in response, because cost outweighs benefit, and by cost I mean deaths not just money. No motor vehicles means no motor vehicle ambulances or fire trucks, for example.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@shemp:

I’m certain Sammy Hagar would agree with your logic. So, there’s that...

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

shemp wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:55 pm
So take all the people who died of covid, plug their info into a life insurance calculator to compute expected years of life remaining without covid, then sum up to get total years of life lost to covid, then divide by total US population to get years lost per person to covid. Result is probably under one day.
Already did that 3 months or about 150 pages ago. The result was about 6 weeks for males and 8 weeks for females mostly paid by the 60-69yo followed by 70-79yo and then 50-59yos who'd obviously lose more than a couple of months due to the asymmetric cost. Alternatively in man-years it was 21 million for the males and 27 million for the females.

chenda
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Re: COVID-19

Post by chenda »

shemp wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:55 pm
I've been away for a while, largely because I didn't want to be exposed to the stupidity of namby-pamby nitwits who outnumber smart people in this forum. But I'll stop in briefly to shed a little light.
I'm sure us nitwits all greatly appreciate a smart person like yourself deigning to enlighten us. Thank you professor.

bigato
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Location: Brazil

Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

I'm flattered that Brazil is not considered a developing country anymore

daylen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by daylen »

jennypenny wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:51 am
For those interested in whether the virus has a natural origin ... Bret Weinstein and Yuri Deigin
You sent me into a very interesting rabbit hole today. Thanks!

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Those of you looking for the second wave in the US aren't paying attention. Different states are in different stages, but overall we're still dealing with the first wave. The new infection rate of the US has only dropped from 220k/week to 150k/week... 150k/week is where we were on April 1, so pretty much in the thick of infections right before the peak around April 7.

States that never peaked and continue climbing: Arizona, California, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wisconsin

States experiencing second wave: Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Oregon, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia

States that peaked and then leveled: Louisiana, Maine, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Virginia, Wyoming

States on the downslope of first peak: Colorado, Conneticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

Alabama is bouncing all over the place, so really hard to categorize; the one thing I can definitively say about it is that COVID-19 has not gone away.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

bigato wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:15 pm
I'm flattered that Brazil is not considered a developing country anymore
It was the new bridge constructed on your property that put it over the edge. :P

tonyedgecombe
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Re: COVID-19

Post by tonyedgecombe »

shemp wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:55 pm
I've been away for a while, largely because I didn't want to be exposed to the stupidity of namby-pamby nitwits who outnumber smart people in this forum.
You won't convince anybody by insulting them.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Those of you who were put on WFH... are you now going to the office or are you still WFH?

chenda
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Re: COVID-19

Post by chenda »

George the original one wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:55 pm
Those of you who were put on WFH... are you now going to the office or are you still WFH?
Still working from home, and I expect we will do so indefinitely now as its working so well. Got to say overall I love it. I sleep longer, less stress, less politics, more exercise, less expenses and no less productive. Can you guess I'm an introvert ? 😂

bigato
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

I'm still working from home, and I heard that productivity in the company has increased overall. They are studying the possibility of keeping at least part of the employees working from home indefinitely.

MEA
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Re: COVID-19

Post by MEA »

@George, my state is interesting because daily new cases is trending up, daily Covid deaths is trending down. So I think there is some truth to the rumor that the virus is getting weaker.

Peanut
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Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2015 2:18 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Peanut »

It seemed there was concern initially, but have there been any actual reports of Covid spikes post-protests? My impression is no? It's been nearly two weeks since some of the biggest marches and gatherings, so I feel like if it hasn't happened yet it's unlikely to materialize. Is that because people were outdoors where transmission risk is low(er)? The weather?

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

44 days to go from 1 million US infections to 2 million infections.

Hmm, so 4 million cases possible by August 1, but more likely 3 million unless states let their upward trends run.
Last edited by George the original one on Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

MEA wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:12 pm
@George, my state is interesting because daily new cases is trending up, daily Covid deaths is trending down. So I think there is some truth to the rumor that the virus is getting weaker.
Or maybe our medical establishment is better at treatment? More people are definitely getting tested and the extra people getting tested are those with weak symptoms that weren't typically tested back in April, so that changes the case fatality ratio... I think that's the most likely reason.

Peanut
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Peanut »

@MEA: I think it's likely the most vulnerable died first. By now anyone particularly vulnerable is taking at least some extra precautions.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

There’s also 3 to 4 week lag between spike in infections vs deaths. The protests took up a lot of media space, but it was still only very small percentage of population that participated. The charts that track growth of movement based on cell phone tracking are likely much more indicative of risky behavior. Still it’s kind of had to tell which aspects of social distancing were and will be most effective. For instance, maybe it’s safer to get a haircut than a manicure because barbers usually stand behind you.

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