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Re: COVID-19

Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:28 pm
by George the original one
Oregon, Washington, & Idaho cases have been on the upswing since about Memorial Day (or the week before). Nationally, the downward trend in new cases has reversed and we're back above 150k/week. National deaths have not bottomed yet, but are still above 6k/week.

Oregon infections are increasingly job-related... WFH still the norm for white collar, so infections predominantly blue-collar. Latest is over 100 people infected at Pacific Seafoods in Newport. Rumor is that California staff were transferred here when their plants were closed due to infections and the staff brought it with them. Of people I know, there is a pregnant lady who appears to have caught COVID-19 at her office in the past week as her boyfriend is still negative.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:33 pm
by jacob
A peer-reviewed econometric backcasting study of regions in six countries (China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France, and the US) finds that the lockdowns and various other policies prevented or delayed 62M (46M--77M) confirmed cases corresponding to 530M (490M--580M) total infections for those countries.

As far as I can sum up, the six countries have a combined population of 1981M, so the policies prevented about 20% of the population from getting infected.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586- ... erence.pdf

People can do their own multiplication of death and hospitalization rates to find how much damage was avoided although I'm sure that if those had actually manifested [the hard way], more people would have changed their behavior on their own as many also did voluntarily. The fact that individual humans have some agency given the quick feedback between exposure and symptoms makes it hard to do "what-if" simulations.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:53 pm
by bigato
I didn't have cough at all, but woke up with a sore throath and the most distinctive symptom was body aches, specially in the back. As I was getting better, the aches start reducing in area and focusing on the lower back too, just like MI described. It lasted around 10 days in my case since the day I woke up with a sore throat. One funny detail was that symptoms would stop and I would think that I was cured, but then would wake up the next day feeling body aches again, but less.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:55 am
by thrifty++
@mister imperceptible and Bigato - good to hear that the virus was not too bad for you. You are the first two people I have heard acounts from about the virus. Its comforting to hear some real anecdotes, You only read about the worst ones in the news.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:10 am
by Seppia
Augustus wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:17 pm
Did you mean to say that they delayed about 20% of the population getting infected? Did someone invent a cure and/or a vaccine when I wasn't looking?
On way that the delays may have resulted in less deaths is that it seems like the virus is losing potency.

if you use google translate, this is from italy's largest newspaper.

https://www.corriere.it/salute/20_giugn ... 9147.shtml

TL;DR: new cases in italy are significantly weaker, two of the main northern italian hospitals (including the one in Milan, a big hotspot) have seen zero new ICU patients in a month-a month and a half.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:09 am
by nomadscientist
Corona seems dead. The riots have not caused a second wave in the US. Largely reopened countries (Italy, Iran, etc.) have not experienced second waves. As far as I am aware there have been no second waves anywhere. Either improvised masks and mild distancing (i.e. voluntary measures that became common) are way more effective than expected at suppressing R0, or the epidemiological models we used for this are wrong.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:13 am
by Seppia
nomadscientist wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:09 am
Largely reopened countries (Italy, Iran, etc.) have not experienced second waves.
It's early to say, we just reopened a week ago.
Clearly, there's some encouraging news

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:20 am
by nomadscientist
thrifty++ wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:16 am
@classical liberal - I know right. Getting my money's worth now at least!

Mind you, I am still thinking about it. When I watch videos like this one the contrast is palbable https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0OQ2-k ... _3Awqq0h9I

- I cant believe she is earning $80k USD in her 20s at a job like that which sounds kind of cruisey and nice. Thats about $122k NZD. Here, you are lucky to earn that much money in your 40s let alone your 20s. And it would be a high stress, high pressure "status" job that you should "be grateful" for, with long hours, demands and responsibilities . Someone her age with that type of job here would probaly be earning about $35k USD>
A management job at the National Parks Service NGO in DC is a status job. That is probably one of the hardest jobs to get in the USA. Especially without affirmative action, which will have narrowed the field enormously for her.

- She is not frugal at all yet she is on "millenial finance". My god. This would be regarded as extravagant expenditure by normal NZ standards. 2 gym memberships and $100 on hair every month and nails?! Yet she is still owning it.
I'm actually not sure she is saving any money at all. Stated $80k salary with $6,257/mo budget of which $1,280 is savings. But $80k in DC is $4,778/mo which is less than her budget minus savings. My guess is she adds a bit to the credit cards each month from her post-tax salary and the "savings" are employer contributions to locked accounts (retirement, health savings, etc.). Either that or the numbers are just made up.

I can't explain the house valuations. DC is expensive in general. She seems to have piggybacked various programs for the DC poor* while being rich actually. Nice work if you can get it. The average salaryman pays for these programs, rather than benefiting.

*wait but Im European so I thought the US had no welfare...

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:05 am
by 7Wannabe5
@Augustus:


Nope. I still think the lockdown was warranted, and offer my condolences regarding your business.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:23 am
by nomadscientist
Augustus wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:43 am
410,000 deaths in the whole world of old and sick people is not actually very many.

But that isn't what I mean. Corona is real, the lockdowns are inadvisable, epidemiology is flawed science, the riots were inadvisable, the narrative on the riots is being cooked. All these can be true simultaneously.

Either Corona was never going to saturate at 70-80% of the population infected, or cheap precautions against Corona are very effective. Or both.

I agree on the Hitler comment, at least in the most general sense; USA today smells strongly of 1930s Europe.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:28 am
by 7Wannabe5
I think it’s more like 1910s Europe.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:51 am
by jennypenny
Are we really at the Hitler mention in the pandemic thread? Nurse, I'm calling it! :P

For those interested in whether the virus has a natural origin ... Bret Weinstein and Yuri Deigin

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:22 pm
by thrifty++
nomadscientist wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:09 am
Corona seems dead. The riots have not caused a second wave in the US. Largely reopened countries (Italy, Iran, etc.) have not experienced second waves. As far as I am aware there have been no second waves anywhere. Either improvised masks and mild distancing (i.e. voluntary measures that became common) are way more effective than expected at suppressing R0, or the epidemiological models we used for this are wrong.
Singapore had a second wave. It seemed to have it under control and was being globally praised and then had a second wave and its virus numbers went through the roof. It has a very large number of cases for a population that small. It seems to be trending downward again now. The death numbers are really low comparatively, but then the deaths seem to come a bit later on down the track.
nomadscientist wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:23 am
410,000 deaths in the whole world of old and sick people is not actually very many.
Thats not going to be the actual number. new disease pandemics are notoriously under-reported in real time. In reality the death toll will be in the millions. At least two million. It has already been regularly reported that even UK deaths are clearly under reported by at least 10, 000. And we are onyl dealing with the first wave. I am not aware of a global pandemic only having one wave.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:26 pm
by nomadscientist
thrifty++ wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:22 pm
Singapore had a second wave. It seemed to have it under control and was being globally praised and then had a second wave and its virus numbers went through the roof. It has a very large number of cases for a population that small. It seems to be trending downward again now. The death numbers are really low comparatively, but then the deaths seem to come a bit later on down the track.
I looked into that at the time.

Singapore had two first waves in two different populations: Singaporeans (who were subject to trace and quarantine) which peaked early with small numbers, and guest workers (who were subject to imperfect lockdowns) which peaked later and with larger numbers. That's why they have almost no deaths: all the people getting infected are term workers in their 20s and 30s.

Singapore has not had the disease come back within one of these population.
Thats not going to be the actual number. new disease pandemics are notoriously under-reported in real time. In reality the death toll will be in the millions. At least two million. It has already been regularly reported that even UK deaths are clearly under reported by at least 10, 000. And we are onyl dealing with the first wave. I am not aware of a global pandemic only having one wave.
I don't believe deaths are 5x under-reported in developed countries, which appear to be the main victims so far.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:30 pm
by thrifty++
nomadscientist wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:26 pm
I don't believe deaths are 5x under-reported in developed countries, which appear to be the main victims so far.
I guess thats the point though. Are the develope countries the main victims or is it just because they record and report statstics more accurately. I think its the latter. Every past disease pandemic was under reported by an order of magnitude as far as I am aware. Even the recent swine flu. At the time of swine flu, when it was completely finished the death toll was only 12,000 people. Then after, a couple of years later the death toll was worked out to be around 284,000 people. Most of the death reporting then was from developed countries too I think from the looks of things.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:01 pm
by tonyedgecombe
thrifty++ wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:30 pm
I guess thats the point though. Are the develope countries the main victims or is it just because they record and report statstics more accurately. I think its the latter.
Developed countries tend to have older populations, I suspect that is going to make far more difference.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:07 pm
by nomadscientist
Right, corona is not really a social problem in Nigeria where only 3% of the population is over 65.

But developing countries with some state capacity and big testing programs are not seeing a whole lot of corona, or at least they're seeing it much later than other countries. India for example. Big corona outbreaks took place in countries that have a lot of international air travel passing through them. You can even see this pattern inside developed countries where NYC has almost been burnt through while places like Utah think there's no problem because they're behind the curve when in fact spread of the disease is still exponential.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:21 pm
by 7Wannabe5
Also it doesn’t exactly make sense to say that Covid is becoming less deadly. It’s not one entity spreading across the globe like a giant slime mold. It may be the case that there is a strain or strains of Covid that are more infectious and less deadly, but those strains aren’t going to directly eliminate the more deadly strains until/unless herd immunity.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:22 pm
by thrifty++
nomadscientist wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:07 pm
Right, corona is not really a social problem in Nigeria where only 3% of the population is over 65.

But developing countries with some state capacity and big testing programs are not seeing a whole lot of corona, or at least they're seeing it much later than other countries. India for example. Big corona outbreaks took place in countries that have a lot of international air travel passing through them. You can even see this pattern inside developed countries where NYC has almost been burnt through while places like Utah think there's no problem because they're behind the curve when in fact spread of the disease is still exponential.
Well, that doesnt seem to be the trend. Corona is not dying at all It had the largest number of new cases on Sunday. And it seems to be growing the most in the developing countries now. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/a ... d=12338553

I remember when it was the beginning people were saying its just a flu with 5,000 people dead and more people die from other things. But the patterns were what was concerning. Now some people are saying there is ony around 400,000 people dead so its nothing to worry about. At what point does it become serious? Will people still be saying the same thing once we have reported 5 million dead?

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:28 pm
by nomadscientist
Sure, it is growing in developing countries. The claim that was made was that there were huge numbers of undetected cases in developing countries, predicated on the assumption that they probably already had outbreaks as big as ours scaled for their populations. That might be true, but I consider it less likely.

It is not unserious. But it is perhaps no longer a big issue for the future in developed countries. It would be different if it were still growing exponentially despite the lockdowns or if it began growing exponentially again after lockdowns began to be relaxed (Italy, Iran etc.) or widely ignored (US etc.).