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Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:17 am
by jacob
Yes... or a vaccine or an easy/ambulant treatment.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:48 pm
by shemp
chenda wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:50 am
You seemed to have revised your initial estimate that it would be 'less than one day' of life expectancy lost.viewtopic.php?p=218098#p218098
One day was based on 100,000 deaths at that time (I was responding to another poster who cited that 100K figure).
[Edit: here were my actual calculations. As of June 9, 116602 Covid-19 deaths in USA according to Worldmeter.com. Multiply by assumed average of 5 years lost life expectancy per death. 5 years is probably high, since most deaths were elderly in nursing homes, where life expectancy is known to be under a year. Divide by USA population of 330 million. Result is under a day. If deaths continue forever, then result will eventually be closer to several months.]

Several months estimate is assuming we never get a cure or vaccine (responding to a poster discussing worst case scenarios), so that 100% of old people from now to eternity catch covid-19 during their last year of life, and many die earlier as a result than without covid 19. Truly a worst case scenario.

My guess is we will soon get better medicines or other treatments for covid 19, plus mass testing to keep it out of nursing homes, so that actual drop in life expectancy will be closer to that one day figure than the several months figure. I'm less optimistic about vaccines than treatments.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:16 pm
by AnalyticalEngine
For a disease model where immunity truly does not last, consider malaria. Antibodies to malaria last under a year, and the disease is nigh impossible to vaccinate against because it's a parasite with a complicated lifecycle. Consider that vaccines rely on a consistent antigen, which is a part of the pathogen the body recognizes and can make antibodies against. This makes viruses easier to vaccine against than eukaryotic parasites because viruses only have one form.

There are anti-malarial drugs, but they are expensive, and places with endemic malaria can't afford them. Also consider that malaria is evolving resistance to these drugs. So consider malaria the worst-case for something that's an endemic disease. Malaria kills about half a million a year, so COVID-19 is pretty much on par with malaria this year.

SARS-CoV-2 isn't anything too special as far as viruses go. It can't hide in your DNA like herpesviruses/retroviruses, and it really doesn't have many tricks to evade your immune system. The most significant thing about it is its genome size and the unique way it transcribes proteins, neither of which will prohibit vaccine development. We do also have working vaccines for coronaviruses in animals.

Probably the biggest obstacle to vaccination is coming up with the manufacturing capacity to make millions/billions of doses cheaply then distributing them across the population. Things that we have vaccines for, like measles, are still a problem in many countries that can't keep vaccinations refrigerated during distribution due to logistical and infrastructure problems. COVID-19 will circulate in these populations for basically ever, even if there's a vaccine.

So the real problem with COVID-19 is the fact it's brand new. No one has immunity to it, and so it can overwhelm society because literally anyone can be infected. This is in contrast to areas with endemic malaria where pretty much everyone is always infected by malaria, and while that adds to disease and development burden, it's rarely a shock to the system.

And while it is true that diseases have evolutionary pressures to make them less deadly, also consider that this doesn't always happen. For example, smallpox, plague, etc, are all horrible diseases that never turned less deadly.

My prediction is we're in for another year, possibly two years, of masks and social distancing until vaccine production is up to speed. Then you'll want to get vaccinated every year. COVID-19 probably won't evolve to be more or less deadly, although a repeat of 1918 where the second wave was worse is technically possible. Once the disease becomes endemic, random people will still die from it, but you won't see the sheer-numbers problem of it overwhelming healthcare/everything.

And remember, there are still hundreds or thousands of novel viruses in the bat population that we still haven't discovered yet. :lol: :?

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:03 pm
by reepicheep
There are 173 pages to this topic, so forgive me if this has been discussed before, but:

Any decent research on acyclovir?

How similar is it to remdesivir as a treatment?

I do not know anything about chemistry, if you start posting diagrams you're going to lose me fast.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:28 pm
by Tyler9000
Remember when the Lancet published the completely fraudulent study that claimed hydroxychloroquine was ineffective at treating COVID-19? If there's one positive to come out of that, its that the reaction in countries like Switzerland to temporarily ban HCQ use offered an opportunity to quantify its efficacy on a large scale. It sure looks like it's helpful when used properly.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/s ... se-n643181

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:15 am
by jennypenny
Merck CEO Frazier says COVID-19 vaccine hype a 'grave disservice' to the public

Frazier said officials are doing a “grave disservice” to the public by talking up the potential for vaccines later this year. There are massive scientific and logistical obstacles to achieving such a feat, he said.
...

“What worries me the most is that the public is so hungry, is so desperate to go back to normalcy, that they are pushing us to move things faster and faster,” Frazier said. “Ultimately, if you are going to use a vaccine in billions of people, you’d better know what that vaccine does.”
...

By talking up near-term vaccines, Frazier argues officials are enabling the public to ignore common-sense measures to slow the spread of COVID-19, such as wearing a mask.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:23 pm
by nomadscientist
Vaccine hype is driven by politicians, who do not want to choose between two options that would result in short-term unpopularity:

1. herd immunity strategy of infecting as many young and healthy people as possible while shielding others

2. restructuring the economy to no longer include indoor workplaces and entertainment, except where unavoidable, as new medium term normal

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:08 pm
by 7Wannabe5
Herd immunity assumes random mixing of population. Shielding particular slice of population will significantly alter the model.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:36 pm
by classical_Liberal
Thanks for the good post @JP
jennypenny wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:15 am
“Ultimately, if you are going to use a vaccine in billions of people, you’d better know what that vaccine does.”
This has been a worry on the back of my mind for months now. As a healthcare worker, any vaccine that comes out will be mandatory. It's a scary day when people may view the known effects of a disease as potentially less harmful than a vaccine that has not been given due diligence in research. If indeed there is a vaccine this year, I think that may be the case. As healthcare workers, we also generally get a front row seat to watch when things go wrong. So, our personal anecdotes lead to a long list of things we would never put ourselves through. If put in the situation of a mandatory vaccination, one that's only been researched for a few months, I'm not sure what I would do. Not sure if this will be enough of an issue, for enough people, that it will be a problem beyond a personal one. It is a possibility though.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:54 am
by Jean
Switzerland never baned hcq. It's just that most (not all, Zurich main hospital kept using it)hospitals stoped using it to treat covid patient after the lancet published thé study.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:48 am
by shemp
Herd immunity apparently happens very quickly, far more quickly than models predict. or such is what the Swedish experiment suggests.

There are several ways to measure covid impact:

1) number of infections. This is a bad measure because it depends on how much testing being done, and it counts asymptomatic infections identically to infections requiring hospitalization.

2) number of deaths due to covid. Another bad measure because at least 90% of deaths with covid present had other conditions present, so it isn't clear what actually caused the death, and each country has different ways of deciding this question.

3) excess deaths. This measure doesn't distinguish excess deaths from covid from excess deaths due to other causes, like seasonal flu or natural disasters, but since three other causes are mostly not a factor since March, this is probably the best measure because there is no way to manipulate raw totals of deaths per week (at least not in developed democracies) and because death is definitely a serious thing (versus asymptomatic infections with no long term effects).

Anyway, on all 3 measures, Sweden looked very bad during April and then less bad in May and June. As of July, Sweden now looks as good as other countries in Europe on all measures. In particular, with regards to the excess deaths measure, note that Sweden is now doing better than Greece and state of Hesse in Germany:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Bottom line, Swedish experiment suggests covid appears to fizzle out on its own after a while. Possibly people naturally social distance whenever there is a surge of infections requiring hospitalization, and this then reduces infection rate enough that herd immunity occurs at low percentages in population as a whole but higher percentages in highly exposed groups. So maybe 70% of nurses and cashiers with immunity, but 10% of population as a whole immune, is enough to cause herd immunity when people naturally social distance.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:15 am
by Riggerjack
@ shemp

Well, yes and no.

All three measures have their problems. In particular, 3): excess deaths hides some covid deaths. As changes to people's daily lives means differences in daily deaths. Far fewer people driving far fewer miles means far fewer traffic fatalities.

So it's to be expected that if traffic fatalities are down, and workplace fatalities are down, and accidental fatalities are down, but total fatalities are up slightly over baseline, simply counting fatalities over baseline is not giving you an accurate count.

It's almost like complex systems are poorly mapped by simple metrics. :ugeek:

The swedish model is not some kind of business as usual model. They self isolate, mask up, etc like everyone else. Similar to SEA, but with more favorable demographics and geography.

So I guess if your point was that masking and social distancing seems to work, I think we agree.

But if your point was that
covid appears to fizzle out on its own after a while.
I have to ask you for some better reasoning, or at least better math.

Viruses die out when we stop feeding them people. See SARS 1, MERS, H1N1, H7N9, for examples of how this works.

Endemic viruses have harsh economic costs. It's amusing to me, to see the pro-market posters here try to ignore that cost while tallying the costs of prevention. It works out just as well as calculating the inventory savings on PPE, when it's not needed... :roll:

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:50 am
by nomadscientist
shemp wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:48 am
Bottom line, Swedish experiment suggests covid appears to fizzle out on its own after a while. Possibly people naturally social distance whenever there is a surge of infections requiring hospitalization, and this then reduces infection rate enough that herd immunity occurs at low percentages in population as a whole but higher percentages in highly exposed groups. So maybe 70% of nurses and cashiers with immunity, but 10% of population as a whole immune, is enough to cause herd immunity when people naturally social distance.
This logic is surely true to some extent; everyone[?] knows panmixia is a simplifying assumption to make equations tractable, and not a good assumption believed to reflect reality.

What is less clear is that Swedes are actually acting anything close to normal just because they are allowed to do so.

All Western countries have pseudo-lockdowns, which is why they've had outbreaks many orders of magnitude larger than Asian countries which imposed and enforced total lockdowns. Personal fear in Sweden may not be so much less a cause of distancing in practice than the US/UK combination of tepid enforcement and open grocery and liquor stores during "lockdown."

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:09 am
by CS
classical_Liberal wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:36 pm
Thanks for the good post @JP


This has been a worry on the back of my mind for months now. As a healthcare worker, any vaccine that comes out will be mandatory. It's a scary day when people may view the known effects of a disease as potentially less harmful than a vaccine that has not been given due diligence in research. If indeed there is a vaccine this year, I think that may be the case. As healthcare workers, we also generally get a front row seat to watch when things go wrong. So, our personal anecdotes lead to a long list of things we would never put ourselves through. If put in the situation of a mandatory vaccination, one that's only been researched for a few months, I'm not sure what I would do. Not sure if this will be enough of an issue, for enough people, that it will be a problem beyond a personal one. It is a possibility though.
Gah, you're right. Dang it. Much as I would love the option to have my old gigs back, I don't know how reasonable an expectation it is if I don't want to get experimented on. I'm not anti-vaccination, but the current climate does worry me on how safe anything out of this government would be.

If I had know this thing was coming I would have worked a ton more in 2017 and 2018 and then walked away with less worries. This is one strike against semi-retirement. Make hay while the sun shines because it might never rise again, or some mixed metaphor like that.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:42 pm
by shemp
Riggerjack wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:15 am

I have to ask you for some better reasoning, or at least better math.
IMO, we need less [misused] math and more common sense.

Your point is correct that less traffic etc means less non-covid deaths, though this is clearly not a huge factor given those big spikes on the momo charts for many countries. Regardless, fact remains that the curves on that momo page for Sweden look pretty much the same as the curves for countries that imposed a harsh lockdown, and those countries with harsh lockdown would presumably have more traffic reduction, etc. Which suggests lockdowns are extreme overreaction. Maybe hysterical psycho-social imitation of immune system overreaction in some people with covid-19.

Moderate social distancing, loose-fitting masks, plexiglass screens to protect cashiers, building codes that require more fresh air, free alcohol hand cleanser available at entrance to stores/offices: these are simple and inexpensive changes that can be maintained indefinitely, and will help with regular flu as well as covid-19. Based on the Swedish example (and also Belarus and Ukraine, where I am now, plus Japan as you mentioned) these simple changes may be all that is necessary. No math is needed to draw this conclusion. Just common sense together with those momo charts plus the charts at worldmeter.com. Underlying epidemiological reason is probably that these changes are enough to reduce the infection rate to where the virus cannot find new victims. Same thing would happen with any disease which only has human hosts.

@nomadscientist: lockdown in Ukraine is basically non-existent and Belarus same way from I hear. Yet they are seeing same results as Sweden, just delayed a month or two. That is, initial surge of serious cases and deaths, then lots of non-serious infections but few serious infections and deaths, finally trivial numbers of serious infections and deaths. Vulnerable people probably quickly figure out they need to isolate themselves, everyone else goes on as usual.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:53 pm
by chenda
classical_Liberal wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:36 pm
Thanks for the good post @JP
It's a scary day when people may view the known effects of a disease as potentially less harmful than a vaccine that has not been given due diligence in research. I.
I expect national branding will be important in winning public trust. Rightly or wrongly, a vaccine made in Switzerland is going to be trusted a lot more than one made somewhere less familiar or lacking repubility.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:28 pm
by nomadscientist
@shemp: Interesting data point.

Indoor bars that were full before the pandemic are full now?

Non-essential shops are open and as full as before the pandemic?

Do people use masks indoors?

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:37 pm
by classical_Liberal
CS wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:09 am
I'm not anti-vaccination
Yeah, to be clear. I'm absolutely provacinnation. They save countless lives. It's just that they are usually studied for years looking for adverse effects and efficacy. Anything medical rushed through, when there's a massive profit motive for the "winner" of the race, and when the alternative is a low risk disease (for me), gives me pause. If I was over 70 I would think differently.
CS wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:09 am
If I had know this thing was coming I would have worked a ton more in 2017 and 2018 and then walked away with less worries. This is one strike against semi-retirement. Make hay while the sun shines because it might never rise again, or some mixed metaphor like that.
Hahaha stop using my own words against semi-ERE!

Seriously though, for about two years I really was thinking this way. Working contract after contract with very few breaks because I figured there was no way I'd keep making this kind of money over the long term. For awhile there it did start to cool off a bit, as more millenials got into travel nursing for the instagram pics. Now, the money is better than ever. Who knows...

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:16 am
by shemp
@-nomadscientist

[re Ukraine]
>>Indoor bars that were full before the pandemic are full now?
>>Non-essential shops are open and as full as before the pandemic?
>>Do people use masks indoors?

I can't say about bars because I haven't gone out at night yet. But daytime coffee shops, restaurants, etc same as ever. No one in masks, crowded at times, people talking directly at each other's faces.

Rules say bars must close at 23:00, but at least one nightclub serving the wealthy is openly advertising that they are still open until dawn. Many rules in Ukraine only apply to little people, same as in Russia or during Soviet times.

Vendors at a crowded outdoor street market yesterday wearing masks around their necks mostly. Few customers wearing masks. In the grocery store, masks on workers are mostly pulled down to just cover the mouth, leaving nose exposed. Most customers put on a loose fitting mask before entering the store, then take it off after, but some don't even do this. Lots of crowding. No one seems to care.

Only place where I saw strict compliance with rules was at a 4star hotel (apparently empty of clients), where I stopped to use an ATM in the lobby, and then again at a major foreign bank where I again used an indoor ATM.

Ukraine is not rich and had one violent overthrow of an unpopular government 6 years ago. In the interim, generation of young men exposed to real warfare with frequent casualties on the eastern front. Government probably worried about more violence if any attempt to strictly enforce rules. Ukrainians don't strut and swagger like gun toting Americans but they are way less cowardly than Americans and thus dangerous to provoke them. Plus country people in Ukraine do have hunting rifles.

Compliance in Spain a lot stricter indoors, but rules say you can remove masks to eat/drink at sidewalk bars, restaurants, so that's exactly what happens. People crowded around tables talking directly at each other with no mask. Spaniards won't turn to violence, especially since the masses have been bought off with welfare schemes, but I expect them to vote out the leftist government once the masses realize their welfare is less than what they were earning at jobs back before the economy was destroyed.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Jul 18, 2020 3:25 am
by saving-10-years
Wearing a face covering in shops and supermarkets in England is to become mandatory from 24 July. (But this does not apply to workplaces).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53397617 This brings us into line with Scotland and several other European countries.

Also reporting today an enquiry into a hospital A&E department closure arising from a hospital training event on 30 June. 70 staff had to isolate, 16 were infected and 3 received hopital treatment. Social distancing may not have been observed at this event - although this lot surely should have known better?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... uiry-finds

My son interviewed for a job face to face last week with him being the only mask wearer in the room. He treated wearing a mask as though it was the done thing. It was 3rd interview with first 2 online. This one occurred in a small space with room changes and technical tests using various keyboards - so he was either going to do lots of hand sanitising during the 2 hours or wear mask + sanitise afterwards before removing it). No advice given by company about social distancing or any special measures. He did not get the job and no suggestion that mask wearing was the issue (I was sort of surprised he wore his, although understand his logic).

I'm glad to see mask wearing in shops becoming a requirement but its hard to argue for this and not for wearing them in bars and in workplaces. Maybe people won't want to buy and take home/use items that other people have coughed or breathed near to? Or is it so that distancing can be relaxed - the sales must have plummented if only a few are allowed in each time. Must admit that if I see a store full of people wearing masks it makes he think that they are being careful of my health as well as their own so I breath easier (within my own mask).