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shemp wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:55 pm

So take all the people who died of covid, plug their info into a life insurance calculator to compute expected years of life remaining without covid, then sum up to get total years of life lost to covid, then divide by total US population to get years lost per person to covid. Result is probably under one day.

Already did that 3 months or about 150 pages ago. The result was about 6 weeks for males and 8 weeks for females mostly paid by the 60-69yo followed by 70-79yo and then 50-59yos who'd obviously lose more than a couple of months due to the asymmetric cost. Alternatively in man-years it was 21 million for the males and 27 million for the females.

shemp wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:55 pm

I've been away for a while, largely because I didn't want to be exposed to the stupidity of namby-pamby nitwits who outnumber smart people in this forum. But I'll stop in briefly to shed a little light.

I'm sure us nitwits all greatly appreciate a smart person like yourself deigning to enlighten us. Thank you professor.

jennypenny wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:51 am

For those interested in whether the virus has a natural origin ... Bret Weinstein and Yuri Deigin

You sent me into a very interesting rabbit hole today. Thanks!

Those of you looking for the second wave in the US aren't paying attention. Different states are in different stages, but overall we're still dealing with the first wave. The new infection rate of the US has only dropped from 220k/week to 150k/week... 150k/week is where we were on April 1, so pretty much in the thick of infections right before the peak around April 7.

States that never peaked and continue climbing: Arizona, California, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wisconsin

States experiencing second wave: Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Oregon, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia

States that peaked and then leveled: Louisiana, Maine, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Virginia, Wyoming

States on the downslope of first peak: Colorado, Conneticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

Alabama is bouncing all over the place, so really hard to categorize; the one thing I can definitively say about it is that COVID-19 has not gone away.

bigato wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:15 pm

I'm flattered that Brazil is not considered a developing country anymore

It was the new bridge constructed on your property that put it over the edge.

shemp wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:55 pm

I've been away for a while, largely because I didn't want to be exposed to the stupidity of namby-pamby nitwits who outnumber smart people in this forum.

You won't convince anybody by insulting them.

Those of you who were put on WFH... are you now going to the office or are you still WFH?

George the original one wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:55 pm

Those of you who were put on WFH... are you now going to the office or are you still WFH?

Still working from home, and I expect we will do so indefinitely now as its working so well. Got to say overall I love it. I sleep longer, less stress, less politics, more exercise, less expenses and no less productive. Can you guess I'm an introvert ?

It seemed there was concern initially, but have there been any actual reports of Covid spikes post-protests? My impression is no? It's been nearly two weeks since some of the biggest marches and gatherings, so I feel like if it hasn't happened yet it's unlikely to materialize. Is that because people were outdoors where transmission risk is low(er)? The weather?

44 days to go from 1 million US infections to 2 million infections.

Hmm, so 4 million cases possible by August 1, but more likely 3 million unless states let their upward trends run.

MEA wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:12 pm

@George, my state is interesting because daily new cases is trending up, daily Covid deaths is trending down. So I think there is some truth to the rumor that the virus is getting weaker.

Or maybe our medical establishment is better at treatment? More people are definitely getting tested and the extra people getting tested are those with weak symptoms that weren't typically tested back in April, so that changes the case fatality ratio... I think that's the most likely reason.

@MEA: I think it's likely the most vulnerable died first. By now anyone particularly vulnerable is taking at least some extra precautions.

There’s also 3 to 4 week lag between spike in infections vs deaths. The protests took up a lot of media space, but it was still only very small percentage of population that participated. The charts that track growth of movement based on cell phone tracking are likely much more indicative of risky behavior. Still it’s kind of had to tell which aspects of social distancing were and will be most effective. For instance, maybe it’s safer to get a haircut than a manicure because barbers usually stand behind you.

It looks like second waves are going on. China, South Korea and Singapore.

The Atlantic on COVID-19 "long haulers." Focus of the article is on multi-month cases with extreme fatigue but no hospital admission, mostly young folks.

bostonimproper wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:22 am

The Atlantic on COVID-19 "long haulers." Focus of the article is on multi-month cases with extreme fatigue but no hospital admission, mostly young folks.

All the way through this epidemic the media have presented rare symptoms as if they are common, unusual methods of transmission as if they are typical, vaccines that are at best months or years away as if they are around the corner, basically outliers as if they are the norm.

daylen wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:17 pm

You sent me into a very interesting rabbit hole today. Thanks!

@daylen -- They are doing a Q & A today at noon EDT. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z5UV_aJTBo

Taleb on masks: https://medium.com/incerto/the-masks-ma ... e897b517b7

Enlightening as always from Taleb. The mask situation is [should be] a stinging rebuke to "scientism."

Not only is Taleb enlightening, but his writing style is hilarious. When I first read The Black Swan, I found myself literally LOLing. Anyone who has avoided his works fearing they would be dry should try them out.

Speaking of libertarian responses to mask wearing (I agree with Taleb's assessment and wear masks for OTHER peoples protection), I saw a novel approach by a business yesterday. Instead of mandating mask wearing and dealing with pushback, they offered a 10% discount for any person wearing a mask throughout their visit to the store. Everyone inside was wearing one, ahh the wonders of capitalism.